Historic Multi Day Tornado/Flooding Event 4/23-28/2011

[GCANE]

FWD watching cell that was near Hillsboro...

That is building fast. Went from 22K to 31K ft in about 5 minutes.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
248 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN HILL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
EAST OF BLUM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
COVINGTON AND CARL'S CORNER AROUND 255 PM
ITASCA AROUND 300 PM
CLEBURNE AROUND 305 PM
GRANDVIEW AND ITALY AROUND 310 PM
KEENE AND JOSHUA AROUND 315 PM
ALVARADO AND MAYPEARL AROUND 320 PM

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 362 AND 369...
I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 37...
I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 41...
I-45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 255 AND 266.

[GCANE]

FWD watching cell that was near Hillsboro...

That is building fast. Went from 22K to 31K ft in about 5 minutes.

Looks like it may be heading either straight downtown Dallas or slightly to the east.

Mike is intercepting.

http://weather.wdtinc.com/popout/index. ... 26&O=10103

[CrazyC83]

Indeed a long PDS watch with 80/60 probs. IMO, a "normal" watch with 50/40 or so would have been good in the short term for a shorter watch until 8:00 pm, then PDS this evening...

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INCLUDING THE BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF FORT
CAMPBELL KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES EAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW
215...WW 216...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN KY. A FEW OF THESE
INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
STORMS FORM TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA. VERY
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WATCH PERIOD
SUGGEST THAT PDS WORDING IS APPROPRIATE...WITH STRONG TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND TX HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262001Z - 262130Z

MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO
WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX AND THE TX
HILL COUNTRY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD
IN VICINITY OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY DRYLINE. THE EXACT
COVERAGE OF EVENTUAL DEEP CONVECTION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG EML...BUT AT LEAST
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE REGION.
ALONG THESE LINES...AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 12Z ECMWF AND VARIOUS 15Z SREF MEMBERSHIP...IMPLY THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO AREAS AND ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY.
WHERE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG INSTABILITY /3000-4000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ COUPLED WITH
STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES.

..GUYER.. 04/26/2011


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 30809503 28359780 29039910 29889884 30529815 30599688
31399533 30809503

[Portastorm]

Yep, the "fun" may extend this far south. What an amazing (and scary) setup this is.

[Tireman4]

Yep, the "fun" may extend this far south. What an amazing (and scary) setup this is.

Yeah Porta, I think all of us need to monitor this situation.....

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX PANHANDLE TO WESTERN NORTH TX AND
WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262015Z - 262145Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...IN THE FORM OF SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX AS
WELL AS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TEND TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL/ISOLATED...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

TIED TO AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ATTENDANT EASTWARD-RACING JET
STREAK...IMPLIED LARGE SCALE FORCED ASCENT SEEMS READILY TIED TO
INCREASING WELL-MIXED CU FIELD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE TOTAL
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MODEST /GENERALLY 500 J PER KG MLCAPE OR LESS/
AMID 40S F SURFACE DEWPOINT...VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL/WINDS. A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.

..GUYER.. 04/26/2011


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36669998 35779882 35349665 33279800 33319951 33870083
36680176 36669998

[CrazyC83]

I've decided to change my routing for tomorrow, sticking to the rain area. 11th hour adjustment!

[GCANE]

For cell south of Dallas:

WFUS54 KFWD 262028
TORFWD
TXC139-349-262115-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0041.110426T2028Z-110426T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN NAVARRO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILFORD...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ITALY AROUND 340 PM CDT...
BARDWELL AROUND 410 PM CDT...
ENNIS...GARRETT AND ALMA AROUND 415 PM CDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 27...
I-45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 243 AND 256.

[badger70]

FWD watching cell that was near Hillsboro...

That is building fast. Went from 22K to 31K ft in about 5 minutes.

Looks like it may be heading either straight downtown Dallas or slightly to the east.

Mike is intercepting.

http://weather.wdtinc.com/popout/index. ... 26&O=10103

Looks as if something is organizing north of Hillsboro TX.

EDIT: Perhaps 4 or 5 chasers are in pursuit.

[GCANE]

Looks as if something is organizing north of Hillsboro TX.

Tornado warned.

About 40K ft

Couplet.

[Bunkertor]

Looks like it may be heading either straight downtown Dallas or slightly to the east.
Mike is intercepting.

http://weather.wdtinc.com/popout/index. ... 26&O=10103

This, i would call dark...

This might be the relive of the busted event, when a weatherman travelled to Jackson....don´t remember the date.

[CrazyC83]

First confirmed tornado...in New York?

WFUS51 KBGM 262044
TORBGM
NYC065-262145-
/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0002.110426T2044Z-110426T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
444 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT.

* AT 420 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO
SOUTHWEST OF ROME MOVING NORTHEAST.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STEUBEN BY 450 PM EDT...
BOONVILLE AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF REMSEN BY 455 PM EDT...
FORESTPORT BY 505 PM EDT...

TORRENTIAL RAIN AND LARGE HAIL HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS
STORM.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM...AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4333 7507 4331 7510 4330 7514 4327 7515
4321 7539 4336 7556 4357 7524 4361 7513
4361 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 231DEG 28KT 4335 7538

$$

MSE

[GCANE]

Huge surge in LI from TX Panhandle to Hudson Valley.

Meso discussions are popping up all over where I wouldn't even expect.

This will be a huge event.

[CrazyC83]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF
ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW
215...WW 216...WW 217...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEFT-EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN
NORTH TX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...HART

[WeatherGuesser]

And we're off and running. Lots of warnings in effect now.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 216...

VALID 262053Z - 262200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 216 CONTINUES.

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD COMMENCE BY 22Z WITHIN AN
AXIS OF PERSISTENT ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE
LK MI SHORE IN SWRN MI SWD INTO NWRN IND. HEATING CONTINUES
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AXIS WHICH WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
/ALBEIT REMAINING WEAK/. LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 AS SAMPLED BY WOLCOTT
IND PROFILER AND AREA VWP DATA. AS SUCH...PROPENSITY FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED CELL WITH ATTENDANT THREATS
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL. GIVEN THE CONTINUED NEWD PIVOTING OF
THE WRN GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CU FIELD HAS STRUGGLED TO
INCREASE SWWD OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IN NWRN IND. IF THIS TREND
PERSISTS...ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL IND.

..GRAMS.. 04/26/2011


ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 41778494 40478577 40278665 40418730 41078720 42248654
43188547 43178490 42978441 42708434 41778494

[Bunkertor]

6 warnings, 7 mds - holy cow

[Bunkertor]

http://www.wfaa.com/news8now