Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15

[Dave]

If AWC has lost production or communications capability, backup will be provided from three U.S. sources: Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) at Offutt AFB in Omaha Nebraska; Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) in Miami, Fl and the Honolulu Forecast Office (HNL) in Honolulu, Hawaii.

It would look so weird if the NHC was working on this...

That would be different!

[MGC]

Looks like some rotation NE of Childress, TX.......MGC

[Dave]

Short Term Forecast - NOW - Norman OK:

728 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

.NOW...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST...
CENTRAL...AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AT ABOUT 730 PM...THE
STRONGEST STORMS WERE SCATTERED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR HOLLIS...TO
NEAR MANGUM...TO JUST NORTH OF THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS. VERY LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL...SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING.

OTHER STORMS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...MAINLY FROM NEAR CLINTON...TO WATONGA...TO NEAR
STILLWATER. THESE STORMS WERE ALSO MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY WITH A RISK OF VERY
LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST...WEST-CENTRAL...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH AT
LEAST 10 PM.

[CrazyC83]

WFUS54 KOUN 140028
TOROUN
OKC031-075-140100-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0012.120414T0028Z-120414T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
728 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 726 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COOPERTON...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COOPERTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 9900 3504 9862 3477 9860 3481 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 259DEG 12KT 3487 9886

$$

MAXWELL

[CrazyC83]

I do believe: the main reason they jumped on the High Risk right away was because of how horrible the big outbreaks, especially the April 27 outbreak and Joplin, were last year, and they wanted to get the word out right away. Although a Day 2 Moderate Risk with strong wording should be enough to get attention...

[Dave]

Near Coopertown OK

[wx247]

My GR has a 3.75" guesstimate on hail in Lawrence County, MO just north of here. Wowzers!

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK AND PART OF
NORTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 160...

VALID 140035Z - 140130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 160 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 160 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR PORTIONS OF OK AND PERHAPS
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

MOST CONCENTRATED/SUSTAINED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK/ADJACENT NORTHWEST TX OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ONGOING SUPERCELL IN KIOWA COUNTY OK HAD
TEMPORARILY WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER PROLIFIC INTENSITY AS OF
0000Z...BUT A REINTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK. THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM
HAS APPEARED TO FAVOR THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LEFT BY EARLIER STORMS. A MORE STABLE RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS CURRENTLY
EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL OK...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
NORMAN WAS INDICATIVE OF ONLY A VERY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER /0.5 KM/.
AS SUCH...COLD POOL ABATEMENT/OUTFLOW MODIFICATION COULD YET OCCUR
THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL OK AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

WEST OF THE LEAD STORM ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY...ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE CHILDRESS TX
AREA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST/EVENTUALLY WEST-CENTRAL OK...WITH THESE
STORMS ALSO LIKELY TO FAVOR THE PERPETUALLY-REINFORCED WEST-EAST
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000-2500 J PER KG
MLCAPE/ BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS ALONG/SOUTH OF IT. REGIONAL WIND
PROFILERS/WSR-88D DERIVED WINDS ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING/BACKING TREND WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE FREDERICK OK WSR-88D VWP ALREADY INDICATIVE
OF 200+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. THIS SAME TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND HELP MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST OK/ADJACENT PARTS OF
TX.

..GUYER.. 04/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34209999 34580050 35370004 36829775 36499535 35489648
34179897 34209999

[Dave]

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THE WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS STORMS LIES NEAR ALTUS-ANADARKO-NOBLE-SHAWNEE
LINE. TRENDS FROM OKLAHOMA MESONET AND RADARS PAST HOUR INDICATE THE
BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY OR BEGINNING TO WASH OUT AND LIFT NORTH...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RETURN FLOW ABOUT 2K FEET OFF THE
GROUND IN CENTRAL OK HAS DOUBLED IN SOME AREAS THE PAST HOUR
INDICATING LOW-LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE.

RESULTING CHANGES WILL MAKE SHEAR PROFILE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING. SHEAR IS ALREADY
FAVORABLE NEAR STORMS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. STORMS NOW NEAR WICHITA
MOUNTAINS WILL APPROACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE 10 PM TO 11 PM
TIMEFRAME.

[Dave]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
757 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EAST CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF COOPERTON...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CADDO AND EAST CENTRAL KIOWA
COUNTIES.

[CrazyC83]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...
CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND ITS IMPACT ON THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
STATES...HAS ADDED TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THIS MAY MOST STRONGLY IMPACT THE
TORNADIC POTENTIAL...WHICH EARLIER APPEARED AS IF IT WOULD INCREASE
AT LEAST INTO THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS IN
THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 ACROSS TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA...AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL PROVIDE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES... WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS.
AND THERE MAY BE A CORRIDOR NEAR/NORTH OF CLINTON INTO THE ENID
VICINITY...EAST OF THE RETREATING DRY LINE LINE...THAT HAS NOT BEEN
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED BY CONVECTION.

LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...BENEATH DIFLUENT AND
DIVERGENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TONIGHT...ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGING...DOWNSTREAM OF A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. REGARDLESS OF TORNADIC
POTENTIAL...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WHILE ONE AREA OF STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT
ANOTHER AREA COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK BREAK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

..KERR.. 04/14/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0059Z (8:59PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Dave]

9:03 PM) OUN issues Tornado Warning for Greer, Harmon, Jackson [OK] till 8:30 PM CDT ...* AT 758 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOULD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

The big question - how high does the SPC go with the tornado probabilities at 0600Z?

My guess is 45% in the northern area, 30% in the southern area and the High Risk gap is filled.

[cycloneye]

Chasers live feed. IMO,is dark and it's very dangerous being out there chasing.

http://www.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen/

[CrazyC83]

Chasers live feed. IMO,is dark and it's very dangerous being out there chasing.

http://www.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen/

Tomorrow at this time could be 10x more dangerous.

[Dave]

I have to turn the spotter/chaser network off just to see the cells in question....

[Dave]

This is a quick view of the initial counties (WOU) product for WW 0163
Full watch page will be available shortly. Please check back soon.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WOUS64 KWNS 140131
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

TORNADO WATCH 163 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-037-039-043-047-049-051-053-055-
057-063-065-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-107-109-113-117-119-
125-129-133-143-147-149-140900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0163.120414T0135Z-120414T0900Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE CREEK CUSTER
DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN
GRADY GRANT GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR
MCCLAIN NOBLE OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS
SEMINOLE TULSA WASHINGTON
WASHITA


ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

[CrazyC83]

Found this on NWS Administrative Messages. Never seen this before.

000
NOUS42 KWNO 140017
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0000Z SAT APR 14 2012

A REGIONAL CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...CWD...WAS DECLARED AT 0000Z SAT
APR 14 2012 EXTENDING THROUGH 0000Z MON APR 14 2012. THE FOLLOWING
NWS REGIONS ARE IMPACTED BY THIS CWD...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN...DUE
TO THE HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. NCEP/NWSTG AND THE NCF ARE ALSO PARTICIPATING IN THIS CWD
TO ENSURE A RELIABLE FLOW OF WEATHER DATA. ALL SCHEDULED
SOFTWARE/HARDWARE/NETWORK CHANGES FOR THE IMPACTED OFFICES WILL BE
POSTPONED UNTIL THE CWD HAS ENDED. ANY EMERGENCY CHANGES WILL BE
EVALUATED AND APPROVED BY THE LOCAL/REGIONAL MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
NWS OFFICES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR REGIONAL OFFICES FOR FURTHER
QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS CWD.


$$

HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
842 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

OKC015-031-055-065-075-140445-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FA.W.0002.120414T0142Z-120414T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COMANCHE OK-CADDO OK-GREER OK-KIOWA OK-JACKSON OK-
842 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
GREER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 839 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY RAIN IN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GREER... KIOWA... NORTHERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHWEST CADDO COUNTIES DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CAUSE
FLOODING. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN... WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HOBART...MANGUM...GRANITE...BLAIR...LONE WOLF...ROOSEVELT...GOTEBO...
MARTHA...COOPERTON...WARREN...HESTER AND ALTUS-LUGERT LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP
TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
844 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 841 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF CARNEGIE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANADARKO...CARNEGIE...FORT COBB AND GRACEMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.

THE TORNADO WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE IN THE DARK. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.