Texas Fall-2015

[weatherdude1108]

It does feel great out there tonight!

[Brent]

Down to 62 on my backyard thermometer and KTKI is reporting 60 right now. This weather is perfect. If only it would stay...

0z GFS has a pattern change around day 11... we'll see how that goes. Weatherbug also has dropping temps and rain chances at the end of the 10 day and plus it fits climo so I think it might have some legs.

[Ralph's Weather]

54 at my house this morning, love it.

[TheProfessor]

It got down to 45 here, we had the windows open in our dorm and the only thing the cold air did was push the warm air up to my dorm and made it really hot.

[gpsnowman]

The a/c has not run since Friday night. Windows open last night made for a comfortable sleep. With a high around 87 today the a/c might have to come on at some point today. And then hot weather returns.

[Brent]

GFS for the 4th run in a row has a big pattern change in 10-12 days

Weatherbug has temps dropping slowly after peaking Thu-Sat through the end of a 10 day with rain chances appearing at the end

[South Texas Storms]

The low at IAH was 59F this morning.

[Tireman4]

The low at IAH was 59F this morning.

Well, that means I did not win..LOL...I can say this...according to the late ( I miss him still) Dan Meador...once one strong front comes through, it opens the gates for the others...so, that was a precursor...

[Ralph's Weather]

After 54 yesterday I made 57 this morning. Hope we continue stepping it down from here on out.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE COMING
TO AN END AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES A RETURN THIS WEEK.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...INCREASING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS IS EXPERIENCING DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S WILL SURGE NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THE SURGE IN
MOISTURE WILL ALSO COME THE RETURN OF STRATUS CLOUDS OVER AT LEAST
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LOWS WILL WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND
THEN THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
AND HAVE INCLUDED A 20 POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS
TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON. IT IS POSSIBLE A MENTION OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY ALSO NEED TO BE INCLUDED AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE
20...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE HI- RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY AGAIN OCCUR IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR NOW AS
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE MAY WORK AGAINST CONVECTION BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
WARM. CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT REACHES THE
AREA.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THEN MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS
ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. FORECAST MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE WEST AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD GIVE
THE REGION A SHORT BREAK FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLY A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

More rain please!!!

[ravyrn]

The low at IAH was 59F this morning.

Well, that means I did not win..LOL...I can say this...according to the late ( I miss him still) Dan Meador...once one strong front comes through, it opens the gates for the others...so, that was a precursor...

That did not bode well for me either!

Looks like TeamPlayersBlue was closest at 9/22 w/ me in second at 9/27. I'll take it!

EDIT: Just realized I was incorrect with my initial assessment - corrected.

[Ntxw]

I added the points in the post on the first page

Yep TPB came closest for IAH good work. First of the three stations to achieve 59F, two more stations to go. As a reminder the points are basically how many days you were off (1pt per day) of the official reading. Lowest wins (meaning you were closest)


Latest Euro says next couple of days will be similar to today then heat up late week followed by passing front cool down and possibly some rain.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

[ravyrn]

I added the points in the post on the first page

Yep TPB came closest for IAH good work. First of the three stations to achieve 59F, two more stations to go. As a reminder the points are basically how many days you were off (1pt per day) of the official reading. Lowest wins (meaning you were closest)


Latest Euro says next couple of days will be similar to today then heat up late week followed by passing front cool down and possibly some rain.

I just can't believe IAH was the first to hit 59. How in the heck did that happen!?

[Ntxw]

The only explanation I can think of is that the cool air mass was modifying out west and northwest (KAUS/DFW) with a south wind while IAH managed to cool off further before switching over after with the ENE wind. Sometimes this can happen as the eastern half to the state remains in the backend of a trof.

[dhweather]

Maybe it had something also to do with soil moisture? It's been raining in Houston, with relatively low dew points moving in, maybe small scale evaporative cooling contributed to lower temps. It's so dry in the metroplex, that just didn't happen.

[Tireman4]

Is the GFS still showing a pattern change in 9 days Ntxw? Curious minds want to know...

[Ntxw]

Is the GFS still showing a pattern change in 9 days Ntxw? Curious minds want to know...

The Euro and the GFS are conflicting. The GFS shows little change just gradual decrease with climo and relatively dry. Euro heats up by Friday then a big cold front comes through with good rain chances this weekend and highs in the lower 80s and 70s much like last weekend and remains there for several days. I am more inclined on the Euro because of the troughing in the west kicking east. But before then it will get hot. If the ECMWF is right then rain chances will go up and temps will lower with the forecast. If the GFS is right then it remains steady.

One way to cross check is the ensembles which has cooler anomalies vs the GFS OP

20W has formed in the WPAC. It will recurve if it becomes a typhoon and should be a major player down the road.

[Tireman4]

So, you are seeing less than 9 days...hum....I do think this is the last vestige of Summer coming up.

[Ntxw]

So, you are seeing less than 9 days...hum....I do think this is the last vestige of Summer coming up.

Hot is relative, normal now is in the upper 80s so 92-96 would be hot.

From everything I see, October will be cold (relative to normal). It's one of the strongest monthly signals I can recall in awhile on a consensus. We'll probably see some good fall colors this year compared to last year.