Texas Fall 2019

[hriverajr]

You think you all have it bad.. I decided not to water my backyard... there was no point unless I wanted a 400 dollar water bill. . well my grass is orange and crunchy.. crunchier than any time in a winter I can remember. I'm in Del Rio.. My neighbor has a sprinkler system. He still has patches of yellow. Sad state of affairs.

[cycloneye]

For those who may want to get details of the GOM area,go to the Invest 98L Discussion thread and the 98L Models Thread

[aggiecutter]

:uarrow:

weatherdude, our NWS office is going with the prevailing model consensus from the Euro/UKMet/CMC/ICON which takes the upper low up into east Texas. The GFS is the outlier on this one. It doesn't look promising for us. Maybe if we're lucky we'll get 1/2" of rain out of it. Years ago the models would promise snow and ice ... only to pull a Lucy and snatch those hopes and dreams away from us. Now things are so bad they do it with rainfall.

I bet all of that would change if you moved from Austin.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

weatherdude, our NWS office is going with the prevailing model consensus from the Euro/UKMet/CMC/ICON which takes the upper low up into east Texas. The GFS is the outlier on this one. It doesn't look promising for us. Maybe if we're lucky we'll get 1/2" of rain out of it. Years ago the models would promise snow and ice ... only to pull a Lucy and snatch those hopes and dreams away from us. Now things are so bad they do it with rainfall.

I bet all of that would change if you moved from Austin.

Am giving some thought to moving northeast ... Texarkana maybe?!

[aggiecutter]

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

weatherdude, our NWS office is going with the prevailing model consensus from the Euro/UKMet/CMC/ICON which takes the upper low up into east Texas. The GFS is the outlier on this one. It doesn't look promising for us. Maybe if we're lucky we'll get 1/2" of rain out of it. Years ago the models would promise snow and ice ... only to pull a Lucy and snatch those hopes and dreams away from us. Now things are so bad they do it with rainfall.

I feel your pain Porta...I was really thinking yall would get some much needed drought relief from this system but now I don't know. The trends aren't good unfortunately...I'm trying my hardest to push some rain over to south central TX!

I know the Austin area isn't favored for heavy, widespread rain, but due to the nature and source region of this system, a lone shower over your house can drop a quick inch of rain in minutes. I've seen it happen over my house with isolated to.scattered showers/thundershowers. And a block down, t he streets are dry. Anyway, trying to find the silver lining.

[Cpv17]

:uarrow:

weatherdude, our NWS office is going with the prevailing model consensus from the Euro/UKMet/CMC/ICON which takes the upper low up into east Texas. The GFS is the outlier on this one. It doesn't look promising for us. Maybe if we're lucky we'll get 1/2" of rain out of it. Years ago the models would promise snow and ice ... only to pull a Lucy and snatch those hopes and dreams away from us. Now things are so bad they do it with rainfall.

I feel your pain Porta...I was really thinking yall would get some much needed drought relief from this system but now I don't know. The trends aren't good unfortunately...I'm trying my hardest to push some rain over to south central TX!

I know the Austin area isn't favored for heavy, widespread rain, but due to the nature and source region of this system, a lone shower over your house can drop a quick inch of rain in minutes. I've seen it happen over my house with isolated to.scattered showers/thundershowers. And a block down, t he streets are dry. Anyway, trying to find the silver lining.

Love your positive attitude. Hoping like hell you guys get something!

[Haris]

I feel your pain Porta...I was really thinking yall would get some much needed drought relief from this system but now I don't know. The trends aren't good unfortunately...I'm trying my hardest to push some rain over to south central TX!

I know the Austin area isn't favored for heavy, widespread rain, but due to the nature and source region of this system, a lone shower over your house can drop a quick inch of rain in minutes. I've seen it happen over my house with isolated to.scattered showers/thundershowers. And a block down, t he streets are dry. Anyway, trying to find the silver lining.

Love your positive attitude. Hoping like hell you guys get something!

Right back at you

[Brent]

Maybe I'm missing something but I'm not seeing a whole lot of evidence of Fort Worths rain forecast i can totally see it being east of us(like everything it seems)

I hope they're right though

the 0z NAM does have a very localized heavy band that moves over the metro Thursday Night though

Meanwhile on the 0z Euro 45 inches south of Tyler with a sharp cutoff closer to DFW

[CaptinCrunch]

The local DFW Wx forecasters are all in with 50-60% chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday, with high's in the upper 80's.....Ahh, to be a dreamer......

[Cpv17]

Not looking good for my location. We might get 1-2”. I’m thankful for at least that though if we get it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Not looking good for my location. We might get 1-2”. I’m thankful for at least that though if we get it.

I think you will get more than that, you should get plenty for a 3 day period.

[CaptinCrunch]

Not looking good for my location. We might get 1-2”. I’m thankful for at least that though if we get it.

I would give my left lugnut for 1-2" of rain......

Getter done....

[Cpv17]

Not looking good for my location. We might get 1-2”. I’m thankful for at least that though if we get it.

I would give my left lugnut for 1-2" of rain......

Getter done....

Hopefully you guys can get something too. I wanted this to go inland further west so a lot more of us could’ve got in on something.

[Brent]

Well that escalated quickly

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas
from Sargent to Port Bolivar.

[Haris]

So far it’s been 2 months and 2 weeks since I’ve had rain at my place.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...

Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened
as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with
maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean
Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

[Cpv17]

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...

Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened
as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with
maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean
Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

So much for that 10% chance of development the NHC had lol

[weatherdude1108]

So far it’s been 2 months and 2 weeks since I’ve had rain at my place.

So close, yet so far with this system. Insult to injury.

[EnnisTx]

Looks like this storm may head a bit towards N Texas. Maybe our rain chances go up!