Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
south Texas on Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
Very large hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threats.
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern will have two prominent features on Thursday, a large
upper low over southern CA and the southern Great Basin and a
deepening/mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Northeast States. The
southern CA upper low will be displaced southwest of the stronger
flow aloft, with little progression of this system anticipated
throughout the day. Maturing of the cyclone over the Northeast will
be supported by a pair of shortwave troughs, one moving through the
region during the first half of the period and the other moving
through early Friday morning. Very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 110+
kt at 500mb) will accompany these shortwaves, spreading
eastward/northeastward over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and
southern New England by Thursday afternoon.
Despite these more prominent features, the primary severe weather
threat will likely be tied to a more subtle shortwave trough
ejecting out of northern Mexico and across TX. Ample low-level
moisture will be in place ahead of this shortwave, leading to
strong/severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon.
...Central/South TX...
A cold front will likely extend from northern LA southwestward into
the Edwards Plateau early Thursday morning. This front is expected
to slowly push southward throughout the day as temperatures and
low-level moisture gradually increase ahead of it. By the early
afternoon, temperatures will like be in the upper 80s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s/low 70s south of the front. Ascent along the front
will be augmented by the subtle shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis, leading to thunderstorm initiation by the early afternoon.
The warm and moist low-levels coupled with steep mid-level lapse
rates (generally steepest between 800 to 600 mb) will support strong
buoyancy and the potential for very strong updrafts. Winds up
through about 700 mb will be modest but strong westerly flow will
exist about 700 mb, supporting ample deep-layer shear for updraft
organization. Large to very large hail appears to be the main severe
threat, although the potential exists for upscale growth into an
organized convective line. As such, threat for strong wind gusts
exists from both water-loaded downdrafts within more cellular
activity and more organized updrafts/downdrafts within a convective
line. The tornado threat is non-zero, but weak low-level flow
suggest very low probability.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Remnants of the overnight convective line are expected along the
front across the region early in the period. Much of the stronger
forcing for ascent will be displaced north but strong vertical shear
will be in place over the region and a few stronger storms are still
possible.
...Southern New England...
Secondary surface cyclogenesis will likely be ongoing early Thursday
morning across portions of southern New England, with the resulting
low continuing to deepen as it moves into Downeast Maine Thursday
evening. In addition to the mesoscale forcing provided by this
cyclogenesis, the first of the pair of shortwaves mentioned in the
synopsis will move into the region during the early afternoon. The
better low-level moisture and buoyancy will be displaced farther
south, but there is expected to be enough low-level moisture to
support modest elevated instability as mid-level temperatures cool
and lapse rates steepen. As such, thunderstorms are expected within
the warm conveyor as well as along the front. The strong flow aloft
will support fast storm motions as well as the potential for a few
more organized/stronger storms capable of hail and/or downdrafts
strong enough to penetrate the low-level stability to produce
damaging wind gusts at the surface.
..Mosier.. 04/08/2020
The trend has been colder temps during that time frame. Wouldn't that be something if it snowed in mid-April.
