Texas Fall 2021

[Ntxw]

It keeps thundering. But, zip. Some to my southwest that will either evaporate or miss me and stuff to the west that’s moving so slow it won’t get into DFW.

Come on, man.

DFW's winds are out of the north now with dp around 60 which isn't great. That outflow boundary Bubba talked about was really unlucky. The bulk of the building storms will be to the south along that boundary and ahead where dews are 65-70. North side may clip but it's not the best moisture content to work with.

[cstrunk]

It keeps thundering. But, zip. Some to my southwest that will either evaporate or miss me and stuff to the west that’s moving so slow it won’t get into DFW.

Come on, man.

Ditto in Longview. Some areas to my immediate west and south got some nice rain for sure. I enjoyed the lightning show. Thought the colliding boundaries would blow it up overhead but looks like I was just out of position. It's dying out now. Still managed to get the ground wet. 0.12".

[Iceresistance]

.65 recorded at my house

[Quixotic]

Third day in a row we got skunked.

[Haris]

My house in Austin got nearly 3" but ive been in DFW this week and so pissed...

What a terrible cursed situation. And now no more chances for the next 2 weeks again.

[Iceresistance]

My house in Austin got nearly 3" but ive been in DFW this week and so pissed...

What a terrible cursed situation. And now no more chances for the next 2 weeks again. Love it!

I don't know, maybe YOU'RE the curse!

[cstrunk]

It keeps thundering. But, zip. Some to my southwest that will either evaporate or miss me and stuff to the west that’s moving so slow it won’t get into DFW.

Come on, man.

Ditto in Longview. Some areas to my immediate west and south got some nice rain for sure. I enjoyed the lightning show. Thought the colliding boundaries would blow it up overhead but looks like I was just out of position. It's dying out now. Still managed to get the ground wet. 0.12".

Cashed in nicely today! 1.54" with this round.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, have .39 total from this event so far. Hope some more comes to get at least a half-inch. I will reduce my sprinkler then.

I notice the FWD site says 80 percent chance of rain overnight in their graphic from this morning. But, the area forecast for my location from a more recent forecast shows only 60 percent.

So, it seems the chances are decreasing yet again from initial forecasts.

The good news: no 90s in the forecast.

[Ntxw]

We may push 90 by the latter half of next week as a ridge tries to pump ahead of a western trof.

[bubba hotep]

We may push 90 by the latter half of next week as a ridge tries to pump ahead of a western trof.

On the ensembles, the patter looks pretty stagnant all the way into November. No signs of any significant cool downs for Texas as the mean trough stays mostly anchored out West and too far West to even get rain into Texas. Looks like our extended summer will continue for most of October

[Iceresistance]

1.05 inches of rain from this morning's storms, grand total is 1.7 inches . . .

[bubba hotep]

1.05 inches of rain from this morning's storms, grand total is 1.7 inches . . .

Rain from this event was actually pretty widespread, it just danced all around DFW lol

[rwfromkansas]

Guess that’s it. Didn’t even get my .50.

So upsetting that things look bleak until November. I am patient. I used to live in West TX. You had to be.
But…I hope that’s wrong.

In any case, of course we had to pay for our great early summer.

[starsfan65]

We may push 90 by the latter half of next week as a ridge tries to pump ahead of a western trof.

On the ensembles, the patter looks pretty stagnant all the way into November. No signs of any significant cool downs for Texas as the mean trough stays mostly anchored out West and too far West to even get rain into Texas. Looks like our extended summer will continue for most of October

I hope not!! I hate hot weather!!

[Brent]

88 next Friday I thought summer was over

We did at least get some good rain here though I will say that

[Ntxw]

There is a deep western trough advertised by guidance in the medium to long range. While the air isn't Arctic in nature, if we can continue the Eastern Canada/NAO blocking in place it will force these troughs/cooler air to dive south vs sliding off in a zonal flow.

The implications are more than just whether it gets cold. The blocking is in place so when the source of air changes, we hold whatever is there. Right now it blocks Pacific air to lock in, but deeper into the season that should change. Key here is to keep the blocking in place.

[TheProfessor]

There is a deep western trough advertised by guidance in the medium to long range. While the air isn't Arctic in nature, if we can continue the Eastern Canada/NAO blocking in place it will force these troughs/cooler air to dive south vs sliding off in a zonal flow.

The implications are more than just whether it gets cold. The blocking is in place so when the source of air changes, we hold whatever is there. Right now it blocks Pacific air to lock in, but deeper into the season that should change. Key here is to keep the blocking in place.

There are some signs that favor blocking during the winter, the question will be if that blocking favors us, or if it's displaced to the east where we only get a glancing blow.

[Ntxw]

There is a deep western trough advertised by guidance in the medium to long range. While the air isn't Arctic in nature, if we can continue the Eastern Canada/NAO blocking in place it will force these troughs/cooler air to dive south vs sliding off in a zonal flow.

The implications are more than just whether it gets cold. The blocking is in place so when the source of air changes, we hold whatever is there. Right now it blocks Pacific air to lock in, but deeper into the season that should change. Key here is to keep the blocking in place.

There are some signs that favor blocking during the winter, the question will be if that blocking favors us, or if it's displaced to the east where we only get a glancing blow.

I'm liking the idea that the blocking will continue as last winter over on North America's side vs starting in Scandinavia/Caspian region as it has so many times the past decade. What cold air we get loves to slides to Eastern Canada, if it's blocked it will go south.

[Iceresistance]

End of the 12z GFS run & is unlikely to happen, but this is kinda crazy for Mid-October in Panhandle Texas

[Ntxw]

Near normal the next few days will gradually rise to warm/hot by next weekend. A few days of 90s next weekend possible.