Major tornado outbreak Sunday...the aftermath..

[wxmann_91]

Yeah but the emphasized severe factor today was the potential for a few strong tornadoes, and SPC put the highest tornado risk in the wrong areas. Overall spc did a poor job today, maybe a 5 on a scale of 1-10. I am not saying there wasnt a fairly significant severe event as there should be around 20 tornado reports total...but overall spc's large tornado area didnt go over too well.

SPC did not do a poor job in their forecasts, maybe the hatched tornado area and the PDS watches were a little misplaced or perhaps should have been held off a bit, but otherwise their forecast didn't do all that bad. The moderate will mostly verify. There was a potential for a few strong tornadoes today no doubt. Ask anyone I know, I am a very conservative forecaster, but I did see that potential today, although I thought it was relatively low.

Not sure how one can say SPC did a "poor" job on this one though. Was it perfect? Of course not. Very good? I wouldn't even say that. But poor is stretching it a bit, their overall risk areas will verify. I've seen SPC do far worse.

Kinda getting off topic a bit, but I do believe overall SPC is doing a far better job this severe weather season than during last year's season when everyday it seemed like there was a moderate risk or PDS watch that busted. Of course the increase in criteria helps in that regard, but I think SPC has learned a lot of lessons from that year and it shows. Still more work to be done though.

Last spring of course was one of those springs where you could give a nearly perfect setup and something would go wrong. Those years you dread to forecast. But this year is different I suppose. The matter of fact that the SPC resisted the temptation of issuing a HIGH deserves kudos. The MDT verified nearly perfectly (although the hatching was a little overdone).

Many tornadic sups did develop (chasers caught tornadoes in southern OK as well as southern KS, I nearly completely busted but I may have been able to catch a few in my virtual target of Tulsa, OK).

[CrazyC83]

Big question now - is daytime heating a factor? Will the cells hold like on March 12th into the evening and overnight?

[6SpeedTA95]

Yeah but the emphasized severe factor today was the potential for a few strong tornadoes, and SPC put the highest tornado risk in the wrong areas. Overall spc did a poor job today, maybe a 5 on a scale of 1-10. I am not saying there wasnt a fairly significant severe event as there should be around 20 tornado reports total...but overall spc's large tornado area didnt go over too well.

SPC did not do a poor job in their forecasts, maybe the hatched tornado area and the PDS watches were a little misplaced or perhaps should have been held off a bit, but otherwise their forecast didn't do all that bad. The moderate will mostly verify. There was a potential for a few strong tornadoes today no doubt. Ask anyone I know, I am a very conservative forecaster, but I did see that potential today, although I thought it was relatively low.

Not sure how one can say SPC did a "poor" job on this one though. Was it perfect? Of course not. Very good? I wouldn't even say that. But poor is stretching it a bit, their overall risk areas will verify. I've seen SPC do far worse.

Kinda getting off topic a bit, but I do believe overall SPC is doing a far better job this severe weather season than during last year's season when everyday it seemed like there was a moderate risk or PDS watch that busted. Of course the increase in criteria helps in that regard, but I think SPC has learned a lot of lessons from that year and it shows. Still more work to be done though.

Last spring of course was one of those springs where you could give a nearly perfect setup and something would go wrong. Those years you dread to forecast. But this year is different I suppose. The matter of fact that the SPC resisted the temptation of issuing a HIGH deserves kudos. The MDT verified nearly perfectly (although the hatching was a little overdone).

Many tornadic sups did develop (chasers caught tornadoes in southern OK as well as southern KS, I nearly completely busted but I may have been able to catch a few in my virtual target of Tulsa, OK).

Last year was a complete flop of a severe weather season. Seems like perfect setups would go to crap because one variable would get flipped up on its head....every chase day I had setup last year fell through

[CrazyC83]

It seems some of these cells refuse to die...fortunately we haven't seen a whole lot of damage, and no casualties, as a result of the weather.

[CrazyC83]

Just in: Watch 114

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois

[cheezyWXguy]

everythings died down in my neck of the woods...2 counties to my north theres been golfball+ size hail and 70mph winds

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks like it will still be hanging around till 11pm est then it will start to die down a bit. Looks as if worse is over for now. But what is the worst thing is tornados a night.

[CrazyC83]

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SEDALIA AND LOCATIONS EAST AND NORTHEAST...

AT 841 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO IN THE
WALNUT HILL SUBDIVISION OF SEDALIA. THIS TORNADO WAS PRODUCING
DAMAGE AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

MOBILE HOMES ARE EASILY DESTROYED BY TORNADIC WINDS AND SHOULD BE
EVACUATED FOR A STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT
IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR
HANDS.

LAT...LON 3872 9348 3861 9345 3870 9306 3891 9307

[CrazyC83]

Sedalia was hit hard on March 12th and has been hit AGAIN!!!

Live coverage at KOMU-TV: http://www.komu.com

[6SpeedTA95]

looks like those southern storms kept the southern portions of the dryline from really ramping up...

[CrazyC83]

I agree...right now central Missouri (again) is the area of main concern. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch for eastern Missouri/western Illinois should be upgraded to a Tornado Watch.

[6SpeedTA95]

One more thing, for you guys saying the SPC did a poor job today, keep in mind the clouds never broke as originally predicted which kept temperatures down here in Oklahoma. Had the temps been 4 to 8* warmer things probably would have been drastically different. So I dont think they did a poor job today, we just had one variable that fubar'd their forcast.

[CrazyC83]

That is exactly one variable that is hard to predict. I figured there was a chance, but not a guarantee, that such would happen. I didn't go to a Level 5 alert because of that factor - I wasn't confident enough that there would be a big outbreak.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado spotted - Exit 101 on Interstate 70 near Booneville, MO.

Tornado warning extended to Columbia, MO (population 95,000)

[CrazyC83]

PDS Tornado Watch 111 replaced by Tornado Watch 115. No more PDS's but still some tornadoes may occur.

[WaitingForSiren]

I wouldnt say last years busts were because of one variable flopping, I think the pattern just wasnt ripe. The only storm last year that had potential to produce a major severe weather/tornado outbreak was on march 30 2005, but not enough moisture came north and just a few marginal tornadoes occured (especially cold core tornadoes). March 21 was OK, but the warm front was nudged way too close to the dry line and this obviously caused major problems. All in all, spc did a rather poor job overall last year.

I must say though now that I look at the reports, today did verify nicely for a moderate risk. I think the tornado threat placement was a little off, though. That moderate risk should have been into central iowa, not just sw iowa. I wouldnt have included hatching either, just a 15% area from kansas to nw missouri, eastern NE and the western half of IA. I think SPC did a poor job of the cold core tornadoes today, but other than that they did verify fine.


So what is everyones idea about this sundays event? I think it is looking pretty active, probably another batch of widespread severe weather to start april.

[tornadotony]

I'm very concerned for Nrn IL/NW IN on south and westward for large tornadoes ATTM.

[wxmann_91]

Given the models are still disagreeing and the ingredients are not there for a "classic" outbreak on Sat/Sun, I won't think much about it until later.

[WaitingForSiren]

I agree, theres too many uncertainties, but since nothing is gonna go and take away that moist gulf air and we have another strong low in the central states Sunday...theres gotta be severe weather. especially this time of year, so my guess is another moderate risk day sunday.

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah but the emphasized severe factor today was the potential for a few strong tornadoes, and SPC put the highest tornado risk in the wrong areas. Overall spc did a poor job today, maybe a 5 on a scale of 1-10. I am not saying there wasnt a fairly significant severe event as there should be around 20 tornado reports total...but overall spc's large tornado area didnt go over too well.

I take it you're a big Accuweather supporter?

I almost fell out of my chair when i read that. LOL. WHAT!?!? Accuweather are the most unaccurate weather forecasters. JB is a good forecaster but he always overhypes everything. Ken Reeves is probably the best forecaster there, or that berny reno guy or whatever, joe soeble isnt too bad either, but overall theyre way too lamen for me and are a watered down weather.com. And THAT is watered down, my friend.