SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Ed Mahmoud]

Last night, my NWS forecast was: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before noon. Some of the storms could be severe. Chance of precipitation 90%. (and discussions about the possibility of severe weather with the storms)

SPC had us in a slight risk. I read several things about ongoing thunderstorms, when they should start, etc.

Wow. Huge bust. Unless I blinked and missed it, not even a drop of light rain, much less anything that resembled real rain or a thunderstorm. I think the models need an upgrade or something... they sure have been way off a lot lately, thus making forecasts way off.

I watched that disturbance on water vapor last night around 11 pm, and was amazed it wasn't already firing storms on the leading edge. Although small, and headed into the mean ridge position, it looked quite potent.

ETA: The 0Z models were pessimistic on rain chances in the immediate area, and turned out to be correct.
Around Lafayatte and New Iberia, where the sun had an hour or two to warm the surface, and a little farther from the Mexican plateau that generates the warm dry layer that so often caps the surface in Southeast Texas, vigorous storms did indeed form.

[jinftl]

Houston (IAH) running 14.3 deg above normal for the first 3 days of 2009!!!

[CajunMama]

Around Lafayatte and New Iberia, where the sun had an hour or two to warm the surface, and a little farther from the Mexican plateau that generates the warm dry layer that so often caps the surface in Southeast Texas, vigorous storms did indeed form.

Yeah vigorous to the historic flooding totals of .05"

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nothing happened anywhere close to Acadiana...

2100 2 W ALEXANDRIA RAPIDES LA 3129 9250 911 RAPIDES PARISH REPORTING A TORNADO NEAR ROSS LANE AND HWY 28 WEST. DAMAGE TO A HOUSE WITH ROOF BLOWN OFF ON TO CAR AND POWERLINES DOWN. JUST SOUTH OF THE AEX AIRPOR (LCH)

0130 UNK 9 NE THIBODAUX LAFOURCHE LA 2988 9071 POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGED 2 MOBILE HOMES AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 307 AND SANCHEZ ROAD NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF KRAEMER. ONE MOBILE HOME HAD A WALL BLOWN OUT. THE SEC (LIX)

1708 88 5 S BATON ROUGE EAST BATON ROUGE LA 3038 9113 TV METEOROLOGIST DAVE NASBAUM IN BATON ROUGE REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTHEAST OF LSU NEAR BURBANK DRIVE. (LIX)

Parts of Iberia, St Martin, St. Landry and Iberville Parishes getting over an inch of rain today per doppler estimates don't count either.

[southerngale]

Good heavens, Ed. We're just saying it was a bust for US. Nada here. Nada there. Nada almost everywhere.

[CajunMama]

I was just responding to what you said happened in lafayette and new iberia. But i'm sure you know more than me since i currently live here and you used to live here

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was just responding to what you said happened in lafayette and new iberia. But i'm sure you know more than me since i currently live here and you used to live here

I watched the radar this morning. They were scattered, but the storms around the Easternmost parts of Acadiana (especially Northenr Iberia and St Martin parishes) looked healthy. Don't need local knowledge for that. Just because the rain almost completely missed the airport on Highway 90 doesn't mean it missed everywhere.


Whereas it did miss everywhere around here in Houston, just light showers, no thunder at all. I was certain we'd get something, the upper low looked so darned impressive last night about 10 pm on water vapor.


BTW, been almost ten years since I last lived in Acadiana. Have they finished turning Highway 90 into a real interstate like highway without traffic lights. I noticed about five years ago heading to Fourchon I know longer had to drive local roads through Morgan City, past J. Ray McDermott and around places like Gray and Thibodaux, as they had that part of Highway 90 spiffed up.

I took a four day vacation in New Orleans with my wife pre-Katrina, that was my last time in Louisiana. Haven't even been to Coushatta.

I heard a sad rumor they have closed the drive through daiquiri stands.

[southerngale]

When there's a slight risk of severe weather, we usually get thunderstorms on some level. Occasionally, there are reports of something severe, but usually not. That's to be expected, hence a slight risk. Occasionally, there aren't even thunderstorms, just rain, maybe a rumble or two. But when there's a 90% chance of thunderstorms locally, some possibly severe, and nobody that I know (around here) got even a drop of rain, then yes, that's a bust for this area. That's fine with me. It's not like we're dry and need it, anyway. We were able to do things outdoors that we wouldn't have been able to otherwise. My point stands. Overall, I think the models have been performing worse than usual lately (not sure how long, quite a while), which makes the forecasts off as well.

[southerngale]

There was a 30% chance today. It was raised to 50% sometime today.

Whoa.... looks like a thunderstorm just parked itself over a portion of Beaumont. It rained here earlier, but I didn't get these flooding rains.

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC245-042315-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0001.090104T2125Z-090104T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BEAUMONT...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 316 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR IS
INDICATING THAT 5 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BEAUMONT. IN ADDITION...
PUBLIC REPORTS NEARLY ONE FOOT OF WATER OF MAJOR DRIVE IN
SOUTHWESTERN BEAUMONT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3007 9424 3012 9411 3007 9409 3000 9400
2992 9420

[JonathanBelles]

1950 BEAUMONT JEFFERSON TX 3009 9414 PUBLIC...RELAYED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE...REPORTS POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT HWY 105 AND MAJOR. NO REPORT OF DAMAGE. (LCH)

Tornado in Beaumont!

[TexasSam]

Dang! great lightning show has been going on to my North since it got dark!!!

[southerngale]

1950 BEAUMONT JEFFERSON TX 3009 9414 PUBLIC...RELAYED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE...REPORTS POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT HWY 105 AND MAJOR. NO REPORT OF DAMAGE. (LCH)

Tornado in Beaumont!

My sister lives about 1/2 mile from 105 & Major. She called me to tell me that they were getting the biggest hail she had ever personally seen... that was before we knew about the tornado.

I had a lot of rain and it got pretty heavy in some of the storms, but nothing severe... some spots had some major rainfall totals, though. Funny how some of the worst weather occurs when it's not expected.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner 7:00 AM

Strong to severe thunderstorms expected tonight.

Powerful storm system will move into the plains today with large scale outbreak of severe weather including potential for very damaging tornadoes. Low level warm advection pattern is in full swing this morning with strong south winds pumping copious moisture northward into developing low pressure over NW TX. Surface dryline extends southward through W TX while a powerful upper level shortwave digs across Utah.

Water vapor images show impressive upper level system moving rapidly SE and will eject strong dynamics and tremendous wind energy across much of TX starting late today. Mid level flow in the base of the trough increases to near 90kt after 300pm today with a 120kt upper level jet streak plowing across the state by early evening. Large warm sector east of the W TX dryline will become increasingly unstable as 850mb and 700mb layer cools with approach of the upper level trough. Capping will hold through most of the early afternoon before building instability gives way and busts the cap as the mid levels cool. Expect discrete supercells to develop in the strong warm advection regime over NE and NC TX by mid afternoon. Powerful wind energy and strong turning with height suggest a strong tornado potential with these cells and a few tornadoes could be high EF events.

Strong forcing arrives into TX before sunset as the dryline and Pacific cold front swing eastward. With cooling mid levels and strong surface convergence along the front expect a large squall line to develop from C OK to C TX with the southern extent being determined by the cap intensity over C TX. Strong jet dynamics and associated wind energy points to a severe wind threat with this line. Given 90kts of mid level flow into the backside of the squall line a widespread damaging wind event along the leading edge of this line looks likely. Discrete cells developing ahead of the squall line and rooted near the surface will exhibit strong low level rotation and a tornado threat.

Southern end of a severe squall line will reach our NW counties around midnight and sweep quickly across most of the area by 400am. Cap intensity looks strong enough around Matagorda Bay to preclude much development in that region although the rest of the area appears to be under the gun tonight. Strongest storms and greatest tornado threat will be along and N of HWY 105 where best moisture, dynamics, and least capping will be found. Squall line may be more broken across areas south of I-10.

SPC has issued a slight risk for severe storms for our entire region….although the Matagorda area is likely on the tail southern end with a moderate risk area outlining the increased tornado and widespread wind damage threat which approaches our N counties. As short range/meso models firm up the track of the surface low and quality of Gulf air mass is realized this afternoon adjustments to the risk areas and possible upgrade to high risk for portions of TX may be needed. Main threats across SE TX will be straight line winds of 60-70mph along the leading edge of the squall line. While the air mass will exhibit strong low level shearing discrete cells this afternoon should develop just north of our region with the main tornado threat across NC and NE TX into SE OK and AR. A few violent tornadoes will be possible and forward motions of 45-60mph will be possible leading to very short lead warning times. Widespread tornado/severe threat will continue through tonight and into Wednesday across the southern US.

[Jagno]

Thanks Jasons.

I'm south of I-10 so it sounds like we are not facing the same degree of severe storms and tornadoes as those north of us but we will keep a watchful eye. So far we are just under a wind advisory till 11pm. It's been very windy for the past week.

[jasons2k]

Udpdate from Jeff Lindner approx 3PM:

Threat for severe thunderstorms tonight N of I-10.

Powerful storm system centered over New Mexico currently is moving rapidly toward TX. Visible satellite images within the last 30 minutes show towering cumulus clouds along a sharpening dryline boundary from Fort Stockton to Abilene to SW OK. Supercells have developed within the last hour along this boundary and are building southwestward with time. Surface observations from far SW TX indicate surface wind speeds of 50-60mph advancing along the leading edge of the Pacific cold front with Wink, TX sustained at 51 gusting to 66mph. Visible images show leading edge of wind surge by dust cloud moving ESE across the Big Bend. Both water vapor and visible images confirm strong lifting associated with the upper trough is spreading into W TX and should overtake the dryline boundary shortly and then spread across the large warm sector E of I-35 where surface dewpoints have risen into the low to mid 60’s.

Special noon soundings from FWD, OKC, and SHR show very strong low level turning within the lowest several thousand feet within the warm sector over E TX and this turning will only increase as strong jet dynamics including a 130kt jet streak plow in from the WSW in the base of the trough. Increasing lift along with surface convergence along the surging cold front will result in explosive thunderstorm development this afternoon and into the evening hours. Forecast soundings however do show capping increasing from SW to NE across SE TX as boundary layer winds turn toward the SW advecting warmer air above the surface over the region. Even with the strong surface convergence, cooling associated with the trough and favorable dynamics the cap will likely not be overcome SW of a line from Columbus to Bay City. Across the rest of the region the cap should be broken allowing deep convection to the realized. While instability is limited impressive shear values (helicity of 250-450m^2/S^2) support updraft rotation. Linear forcing should result in a squall line…in which SE TX will lie on the southern flank. 850mb winds of near 80kts across our NE counties to 45kts to the SW support a high damaging wind threat along the leading edge of this line. May also see a few supercells embedded within the line yielding a tornado threat…but the main tornado threat remains just north of our area. Squall line should pass through the region between midnight NW areas and clear the coast by 600am…with the forward movement of 30-40mph. Rainfall amounts due to the fast movement will only average .25 to .75 of an inch.==

While factors appear favorable for a severe weather event…the cap intensity and northern extent along with limited instability still raise some questions as to how far south and west the activity will extend.

[JenBayles]

Severe or not, it's a proper Spring front, and I pray we get a good half inch of rain out of this system. I've never had to water so much in the winter months as this year. Bring on the drought buster!

[PTrackerLA]

Everything seems to be pointing to a breaking up squall line by the time it reaches my area. Local weatherman is giving us a 70% of storms overnight but I wouldn't be surprised if we just have a few showers. I was out of town the last time we had rain so it feels like it's been FOREVER since I've experienced a good thunderstorm. I'm almost ready for summer, but only for the thunderstorms (not the heat!!!).

[JenBayles]

Nice squall line blowing up west of I-35, and developing to the south very quickly. I'm still not betting on rain here under the Bear Creek Dome. How much you wanna bet the line splits just as it gets here?

[southerngale]

We've had rain on and off all day... all light to moderate and not amounting to that much. We did get a lot of rain about a week ago though and some a few days ago, so I hope you guys to my west get the rain you need.

[JenBayles]

SG - your avatar is freaking me OUT!

I'm still betting the line splits around my house. We got a few little streamer showers today, but I doubt it was measurable. Just enough for the dogs to get their feet nice and muddy.