MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241929Z - 242100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS NE NM
   AND THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY BY 20-21Z ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MESO LOW JUST EAST OF TUCUMCARI NM
   WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE
   INTO SCNTRL CO. MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS ARE ABOVE
   1000 J/KG AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION NEARLY
   GONE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND EXPAND ACROSS
   ERN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGIONAL
   PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT
   SUGGESTING THE STORMS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE
   ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY OCCUR WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
   IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP EXCEEDING 9.0 C/KM
   ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND NM SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
   34240154 34480303 34990476 35490515 36180509 36550449
   36360315 35930180 35420095 34790095

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...SW SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 242018Z - 242145Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS SW SD AND NW NEB WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   TO HAVE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO
   WRN NEB WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN NEB IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F.
   THE AIRMASS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 J/KG. THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
   RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL REMAIN
   ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
   SEVERE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE WHICH WILL FAVOR LARGE
   HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION
   MOVES SEWD OUT OF THE BLACK HILLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   42230144 41630150 41340252 41940362 43180409 43740344
   43480230 42820164

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN/CENTRAL WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552...553...
   
   VALID 242034Z - 242200Z
   
   VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 552 AND 553 CONTINUE
   UNTIL 00Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH /OR REPLACEMENT WW/ MAY BE NEEDED SOON
   ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WEST CENTRAL WI.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS BOTH SOUTH CENTRAL MN
   AND EAST CENTRAL WI WITHIN A MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GENERAL
   CORRIDOR OF 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE EAST CENTRAL WI ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO POST A SEVERE THREAT...FURTHER WEST...A SUFFICIENT COLD
   POOL/PRESENCE OF WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD FAVOR AN EASTWARD
   SPREAD/ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
   REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MN/WEST CENTRAL WI. WHILE MUCH OF CENTRAL WI
   HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY CONVECTION OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...FAR
   WEST CENTRAL WI AREAS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER APPEAR TO BE
   QUICKLY RECOVERING/DESTABILIZING AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE
   UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST MN/WEST CENTRAL WI.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...
   
   43709568 44709524 45589447 45649188 45328930 45078794
   44208773 43888800 43649051 43499164 43509401 43509525

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1341
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL CO...SE WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 242044Z - 242215Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   ECNTRL CO AND SE WY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY BY 22-23Z ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN WY INTO ERN
   CO WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 30S F TO THE UPPER 40S F. A
   MOIST AXIS EXISTS ACROSS SE CO WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S
   F. THIS AREA HAS MODERATELY DESTABILIZED AND WEAK INSTABILITY IS IN
   PLACE NWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS
   AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON REGIONAL
   WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST STRONG MULTICELLS AND/OR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP ESPECIALLY IN THE
   FOOTHILLS SUGGESTING THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   37710506 38040581 40500596 42010579 42340483 41670419
   38200424

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1342
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0527 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NM.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 242227Z - 250015Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR STATION
   
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH 2Z OVER MUCH OF ERN NM --
   GENERALLY BOUNDED BY AN AREA FROM ROW...LVS...35 SW DRT.  AREA WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ATTM OVER NRN CURRY COUNTY...WITH
   OTHER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER N INVOF TX BORDER SW DHT.  MORE
   CONCENTRATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY SWD ACROSS AREA
   BETWEEN MORA...NERN LINCOLN AND NWRN DE BACA COUNTIES. SFC ANALYSIS
   INDICATED DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR I-40.  FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD
   ACROSS AREA WITH AID FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WEAKEN WITH SWD AND WWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION...BUT INITIALLY ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS N OF
   FRONT...WITH STRONGLY DEVIANT RIGHTWARD MOTIONS NEAR TX BORDER.
   ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD LONG 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS WITH
   POTENTIAL SRH VALUES IN 150-300 J/KG RANGE...AND MRGL EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT.  MLCAPE IS MAXIMIZED N OF FRONT WHERE
   UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S F SFC DEW POINTS SUPPORT UP TO AROUND 1500
   J/KG MLCAPE. LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WITH
   DISCRETE STORMS.
   
   PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF
   FRONT -- IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.  EXPECT
   TSTMS TO FILL IN BETWEEN ONGOING ACTIVITY.  INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE WITH OUTFLOW INTO SUCH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY
   RESULT IN GENERATION OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL...AND SURGE OF STG-SVR
   OUTFLOW AIR SWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL/SERN NM.  GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT SFC
   CONDITIONS THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO HABOOB WITH ATTENDANT
   DUST/VISIBILITY HAZARD ACROSS PORTIONS CURRY/ROOSEVELT/DE
   BACA/LINCOLN/CHAVES COUNTIES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   35620303 35050295 34330303 33610336 33170397 33140487
   33940525 36020504 35900392 35780336

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1343
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0528 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN/CENTRAL WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552...553...554...
   
   VALID 242228Z - 250000Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 552/553 CONTINUE UNTIL
   00Z...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 554 UNTIL 02Z. THREAT REMAINS
   FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
   INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
   
   MAIN SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS /NAMELY THROUGH 00Z-01Z/
   SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
   WI...INCLUDING THE ROCHESTER/WINONA MN AND LA CROSSE WI VICINITIES.
   IN PRESENCE OF MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   LINE...DRIVEN BY COLD POOL/EMBEDDED MCV...WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
   EASTWARD AT AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH OTHER STORMS ALSO FOCUSED ON A
   ROUGHLY WEST-EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND
   ALONG/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AIRMASS REMAINS
   MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND
   MLCAPES CAPES TO 1000 J/KG.
   
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
   MUCH OF WW 552 ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN...AS WELL AS EAST
   CENTRAL WI AREAS OF WW 553 BEHIND ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE. CURRENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT WATCHES 552/553 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY/AT
   THEIR SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATIONS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...FSD...
   
   43979502 44759479 45279361 45399184 45328930 45078794
   44058788 43888800 43609051 43499164 43509401 43669493

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NM.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 242230Z - 250030Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR STATION
   
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH 2Z OVER MUCH OF ERN NM --
   GENERALLY BOUNDED BY AN AREA FROM ROW...LVS...35 SW DHT.  AREA WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ATTM OVER NRN CURRY COUNTY...WITH
   OTHER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER N INVOF TX BORDER SW DHT.  MORE
   CONCENTRATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY SWD ACROSS AREA
   BETWEEN MORA...NERN LINCOLN AND NWRN DE BACA COUNTIES. SFC ANALYSIS
   INDICATED DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR I-40.  FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD
   ACROSS AREA WITH AID FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WEAKEN WITH SWD AND WWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION...BUT INITIALLY ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS N OF
   FRONT...WITH STRONGLY DEVIANT RIGHTWARD MOTIONS NEAR TX BORDER.
   ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD LONG 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS WITH
   POTENTIAL SRH VALUES IN 150-300 J/KG RANGE...AND MRGL EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT.  MLCAPE IS MAXIMIZED N OF FRONT WHERE
   UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S F SFC DEW POINTS SUPPORT UP TO AROUND 1500
   J/KG MLCAPE. LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WITH
   DISCRETE STORMS.
   
   PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF
   FRONT -- IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.  EXPECT
   TSTMS TO FILL IN BETWEEN ONGOING ACTIVITY.  INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE WITH OUTFLOW INTO SUCH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY
   RESULT IN GENERATION OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL...AND SURGE OF STG-SVR
   OUTFLOW AIR SWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL/SERN NM.  GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT SFC
   CONDITIONS THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO HABOOB WITH ATTENDANT
   DUST/VISIBILITY HAZARD ACROSS PORTIONS CURRY/ROOSEVELT/DE
   BACA/LINCOLN/CHAVES COUNTIES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   35620303 35050295 34330303 33610336 33170397 33140487
   33940525 36020504 35900392 35780336

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN CO.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555...
   
   VALID 250029Z - 250200Z
   
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA...HOWEVER
   STABILIZATION FROM COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC
   SFC COOLING MAY JUSTIFY SOME CLEARING OF WW IN POSTCONVECTIVE
   ENVIRONMENT WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   MOST INTENSE TSTMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN/SRN
   PORTIONS DEN METRO WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND AND HAIL.  1.75 INCH
   HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BOU AREA.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
   AND MOVE SEWD TO SWD ACROSS WW AREA AS WELL.  DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD
   LAYERS...IN INFLOW REGION TO THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY...WILL
   CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL AND GUSTS TO REACH
   SFC.  LOW LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MAXIMIZED OVER
   FOOTHILLS AND WITHIN FRONT RANGE WHERE 0-3 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG IS
   EVIDENT.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AWAY FROM MOUNTAINS ARE MAXIMIZED
   ALONG AND JUST N OF SFC CONFLUENCE ZONE...ANALYZED FROM NRN PORTIONS
   DEN AREA ESEWD PAST LIC.  BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW STRUCTURES ARE
   POSSIBLE....SUPPORTED ALSO BY MLCAPES 500-800 J/KG.  MLCAPES SHOULD
   DIMINISH WITH TIME AFTER ABOUT 02Z IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS BECAUSE
   OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   37440506 38210575 38710591 38700531 40050537 40870602
   40840360 40000349 40000370 39530373 39500313 38470320
   38470348 37650344 37590310 36920328 36990511

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA AND WEST
   CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 554...
   
   VALID 250045Z - 250215Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 554 CONTINUES UNTIL
   02Z...WITH ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO...NAMELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF WW 544
   ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90...INTO NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
   
   AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY NNE-SSW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE /ROUGHLY FROM
   LA CROSSE WI-DECORAH IA-WATERLOO IA AS OF 0040Z/...SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   70S...INDICATIVE OF DISTINCT DIMINISHING TREND OF SURFACE BASED
   BUOYANCY VIA CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO...A FURTHER DIMINISHING INTENSITY TREND IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOSS
   OF DAYTIME HEATING IN AN ALREADY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT. THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   544 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT/BY 02Z.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   44439118 44389054 44138969 42689005 42509117 42699187
   43279188 43839169

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1033 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN CO.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555...
   
   VALID 250333Z - 250500Z
   
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS ORIGINAL
   WW AREA.  INITIAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT MOVED ACROSS DEN AREA HAS
   WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS LINCOLN/EL PASO COUNTIES AND
   IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ADDITIONAL/ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
   PRECONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
   STABILIZED BY DIABATIC SFC COOLING...WHILE OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED
   AIR MASS NEAR SFC ELSEWHERE.  ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ATOP
   OUTFLOW POOLS -- IN POCKETS OF RESIDUAL/ELEVATED BUOYANCY WHERE
   PRIOR CONVECTION HAS NOT EXTENSIVELY OVERTURNED AIR MASS ALOFT.
   HOWEVER...SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD POSE MRGL/BRIEF SVR POTENTIAL AT
   MOST.  PER COORD/W DEN/PUB...ALL BUT LINCOLN COUNTY HAS BEEN CLEARED
   FROM WW. REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 5Z
   EXPIRATION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   38920372 39530373 39500313 38470320 38500394 38800402

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1348
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE AL...WRN TN...NRN/CNTRL GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251639Z - 251815Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
   THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO CNTRL AL AND SRN MS. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY ARE NEAR 70 F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN
   PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS AL...NRN GA AND
   CNTRL MS. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
   ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN
   APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY EXPAND
   IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
   RELATIVELY WEAK...THE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS BY
   MID-AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CELL MERGERS
   AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   32978558 33498661 34518698 35858605 36048431 35328312
   33898287 32958407

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1349
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...NW IL...NE MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251738Z - 251915Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS ACROSS ERN IA...NW IL AND NE MO. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BE NECESSARY THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD FROM
   CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL MN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F ALONG THE AXIS
   OF THE TROUGH. POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT GENERALLY
   WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG A THERMAL AXIS FROM NRN MO EXTENDING
   NWD INTO ERN IA WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE MID-LEVEL
   CLOUD COVER. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING
   AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN IA...NRN MO AND NW IL. MODERATE
   VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND
   COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MAKE ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS AND/OR SEVERE MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL A
   POSSIBILITY. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
   
   39819211 40269351 40849411 41409426 42419386 42959288
   43169189 42979103 42529017 41358971 40199050

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1350
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST KS INTO NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST
   MO/NORTHWEST AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251755Z - 252000Z
   
   STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE/POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS INTO NORTHEAST OK THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHWEST
   MO/NORTHWEST AR. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   SMALL/MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 30-45
   MINUTES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN WICHITA-CHANUTE...INCLUDING A
   NICKEL HAIL REPORT IN BUTLER COUNTY KS JUST AFTER 1730Z. PER WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LARGELY TIED TO FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE ON FRINGE OF UPPER MIDWEST
   UPPER TROUGH. WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW 20-30 KT LOW TO
   MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW /PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/...AT LEAST AN
   ISOLATED/SHORT TERM HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS WARM/MODESTLY
   MOIST...WITH MLCAPES POSSIBLY TO 1000-1250 J/KG PER MODIFIED 12Z
   SPRINGFIELD RAOB/LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   37839707 37949644 37729438 38039267 37219156 36249189
   35629360 35559522 35859625 36379659 36689671

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM AND SCNTRL CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251825Z - 252000Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM AND SCNTRL CO
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOW A SFC RIDGE IN PLACE EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE
   FRONT RANGE INTO NE NM. A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM WEST TX INTO
   NE NM WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND UPSLOPE FLOW EXIST.
   DESTABILIZATION AND TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS
   ARE RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
   STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS NE NM WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
   VALUES OF 25-30 KT WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM. THIS SHOULD
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
   
   34180461 34430554 34900595 35580617 36550619 37480602
   38340542 38330427 37390353 35970316 34780331

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1352
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/FAR NORTHERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251900Z - 252030Z
   
   AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
   INTO FAR NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR
   LARGE HAIL...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS/A TORNADO OR TWO/LOCALLY HEAVY
   RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS WELL. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   BENEATH  COLD CORE /-15C AT 500 MB/...MODEST SURFACE HEATING IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS
   SOUTHERN WI...WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   WEAK...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
   PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES GIVEN
   AMBIENT VORTICITY/LARGE LOW LEVEL CAPE ENVIRONMENT...WITH 0-3 KM
   CAPES OF 100-150 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI. THIS WOULD
   PROBABLY BE MOST LIKELY WITH STORMS ON/INTERACTING WITH THE ARCING
   BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN
   IL. IN FACT...THE STORM NEAR WISCONSIN DELLS APPEARS TO HAVE
   EXHIBITED SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   43269056 43699022 43488895 42948839 42018852 42018948
   42578991

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN VA...CENTRAL/NRN MD...SERN PA...DC.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 252332Z - 260230Z
   
   LOCALIZED RAIN RATES NEAR 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY ALONG
   AND 25-30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM RDG...BWI...DCA...35 S IAD.
   
   BAND OF TSTMS -- INITIALLY EVIDENT FROM MADISON/CULPEPER COUNTIES VA
   NEWD THROUGH SCHUYLKILL COUNTY PA -- MAY CONTINUE SLOW INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EWD TOWARD
   I-95 CORRIDOR. MERGING AND TRAINING OF ECHOES SHOULD ENHANCE HEAVY
   RAIN THREAT IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY RICH
   DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...MRGL BUOYANCY...WEAK CONVERGENCE BUT
   ALSO WEAK CINH.  OBSERVED GPS PW AND THOSE FROM SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FCST SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR 2 INCHES....WITH 13-15 G/KG MEAN MIXING
   RATIOS.  UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS PROSPECTIVE
   INFLOW REGION SHOULD HELP TO OVERCOME WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   SUPPORT SBCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG.  AREA VWP AND RUC FCST WINDS EACH
   SUGGEST 20-25 KT SLY-SELY OBSERVED JUST OFF SFC WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
   DELMARVA/CHESAPEAKE REGION.  EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION IS LIKELY
   WITH LOW-MODERATE REFLECTIVITY/WARM-CLOUD PROCESSES INVOLVED THROUGH
   LOWER-MIDDLE PART OF DEEP CONVECTIVE COLUMN.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
   DIMINISH BY 3-4Z TIME FRAME WITH SLOW DIABATIC COOLING OF SFC-BASED
   INFLOW REGION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...
   
   38527791 39197725 39967664 40797568 40517512 39677585
   38967640 38417734 38377785

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN WI...ERN IA...NRN IL.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556...
   
   VALID 260004Z - 260200Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
   ACTIVITY OVER WW AREA BUT SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED.
   PORTIONS WW MAY BE CLEARED/CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION.
   
   MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN N OF I-80 IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
   MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE COOLING AND DESTABILIZATION ALOFT SHOULD
   REMAIN STRONGEST...AWAY FROM EXISTING CONVECTION.  LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED IN THIS REGION AS WELL...INVOF
   INVERTED TROUGH ANALYZED FROM SWRN WI SSEWD ACROSS NWRN IL..TO WEAK
   SFC LOW ABOUT 40 ESE MLI.  WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL BULK SHEAR PROFILES
   INDICATE MULTICELLULAR CHARACTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
   CONVECTIVE MODE.  EXPECT SVR THREAT TO DIMINISH INTO EARLY EVENING
   HOURS. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   SVR WITH TIME BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVELY MORE OUTFLOW-STABILIZED
   AIR...AND SFC-BASED DIABATIC COOLING OF THOSE REMAINING POCKETS OF
   PRECONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   HIGH LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL RH...PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT/TRAINING/MERGING
   OF CORES OVER SAME LOCALES...AND AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE INDICATE
   LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS WELL.  SOME 2 INCH/HOUR RATES
   ARE LIKELY IN HEAVIEST CORES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   43698862 43478829 42788823 41408856 41078928 40978999
   41199091 41909120 42709086 43458933

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1037 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...PARTS OF ERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261537Z - 261700Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   MID-LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING STRONG DIGGING UPPER JET STREAK AND
   ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING
   DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AREA.
   DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT...MOSTLY ALONG COLD FRONT
   FROM PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO WESTERN
   ONTARIO.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
   THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
   DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SEEMS
   LIKELY NEAR/JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /500 MB TEMPS
   TO -20C/...SPREADING SOUTH OF THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
   INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA.  RISK OF HAIL IS PROBABLY PRIMARY THREAT
   WITH THESE STORMS.  SHEAR/FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...MAINLY WITH ANY PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
   DEEPER INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE DEEP
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...
   
   48569287 48079331 47379445 47269625 47599708 47699945
   47820063 48290117 48930100

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IL...IN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261639Z - 261815Z
   
   A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING/INCREASING AHEAD OF UPPER
   TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  THIS ACTIVITY
   APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE
   WARMING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...FOCUSED NEAR 850 MB BAROCLINIC
   ZONE.  EVOLUTION INTO A SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE/CLUSTER APPEARS
   POSSIBLE THROUGH 18-21Z...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED  WITH
   MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN TROUGH...AND
   PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ROUGHLY
   BETWEEN QUINCY AND ST. LOUIS.  FLOW/SHEAR REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF
   ILLINOIS IS RATHER WEAK...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING TO
   1000-2000 J/KG COULD STILL SUPPORT BRIEF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
   SOME HAIL.  AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH MID
   AFTERNOON...A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THIS
   POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BECOME MINIMIZED AS OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
   INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BECOME DOMINANT.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   41338851 41478737 40878658 40098726 39158750 38348791
   37688893 38548912 39248912 39898976 40908932

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...
   
   VALID 262039Z - 262215Z
   
   CONTINUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   ON LEADING/SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION...IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET...SCATTERED STORMS
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
   INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF WATCH AREA.  HOWEVER...STRONGEST
   DESTABILIZATION STILL APPEARS TO REMAIN FOCUSED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
   TO MID-LEVEL COLD CORE NOW SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE LAKE OF THE
   WOODS AREA...WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO GROW.  IN
   ADDITIONAL TO CONTINUING RISK OF HAIL...GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS...MAY BECOME AN INCREASE THREAT THROUGH 22-23Z ACROSS THE
   BEMIDJI/GRAND FORKS AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF BRAINERD.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
   
   48859541 48549431 47779388 47149439 46999548 47129682
   47539804 48249844 48619717