MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ND...NRN/W-CENTRAL MN.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...
   
   VALID 262351Z - 270145Z
   
   ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF WW
   AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED EITHER BY OUTFLOW OR BY NEGATIVE BOUNDARY
   LAYER THETAE ADVECTION BEHIND WIND SHIFT/FROPA.  PORTIONS WW OVER
   E-CENTRAL/NERN ND AND NERN MN ALREADY HAVE BEEN CLEARED.  REMAINDER
   WW MAY BE CANCELED INCREMENTALLY AS NEEDED...BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z
   EXPIRATION.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW NEAR BJI WITH COLD FRONT WWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL ND.  NONCONVERGENT NLY FLOW AND DRYING IS EVIDENT BEHIND
   FRONT...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  AHEAD OF FRONT...TSTMS HAVE PRODUCED RELATIVELY
   COLD/STABLE OUTFLOW AIR ACROSS MOST OF NRN MN. ISOLATED STG-SVR
   TSTMS MAY CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS BECKER/OTTER TAIL
   COUNTIES...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SWWD TOWARD SERN
   CORNER ND.  REMAINING SVR GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS MRGL ATTM.
   EXPECT PREFRONTAL AIR MASS TO STABILIZE WITH DIABATIC SFC COOLING
   OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   46439807 46969668 48309513 48019452 46539473 45619594
   45889695 46049780

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271544Z - 271715Z
   
   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   ISOLATED STORM NOW NORTH/NORTHEAST OF DETROIT IS WEAKENING...BUT
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT
   AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES IS DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN
   EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORT WAYNE IN/TOLEDO OH AREAS INTO
   SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE BECOMING
   NEGLIGIBLE.  AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE LIFTING
   NORTHEAST OF THE CHICAGO AREA INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
   THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
   17-20Z.  ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE JACKSON/
   FLINT/LANSING AREAS.  SHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE...BUT THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES BENEATH RELATIVE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   43498514 43678445 43378368 42808325 42218350 41678396
   41278474 41288573 41908573 42518582 43108573 43388533

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL AND ERN AZ/FAR WRN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271908Z - 272115Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
   DMGG WIND GUSTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL EXIST DURING THE MID-LATE
   AFTERNOON. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OTHER
   MTNS OF NRN/ERN AZ. 12Z FLG SOUNDING AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
   SUBSTANTIALLY MORE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF AZ THAN 24
   HRS AGO. MODERATE NLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STEER CONVECTION SWD
   THROUGH THE RIM AND INTO LOWER FOOTHILLS NORTH/EAST OF THE PHX/TUS
   METRO AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF
   STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A
   MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE WBZ HEIGHTS WILL
   BE NEARER TO THE SFC. GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES LESS
   THAN 1000 J/KG/...ONLY A MARGINAL DMGG WIND THREAT IS ANTICIPATED
   OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   36390906 36591207 36101318 35561297 34471245 33021202
   32521146 31851007 32760827 35220808

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271924Z - 272100Z
   
   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS BECOMING
   FOCUS FOR STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMUM IN MIXED
   LAYER CAPE...WHICH IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.  IN RESPONSE TO
   DESTABILIZATION...DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... EVIDENT IN
   SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY BY AROUND
   21Z...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z... SUPPORTED BY
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
   CENTER.  UPPER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE DULUTH
   AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL...PERHAPS BRIEF WEAK
   TORNADOES...DESPITE PRESENCE OF RATHER WEAKLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME.
   HIGHEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FROM NEAR MADISON THROUGH THE
   LAKE WINNEBAGO AREA INTO THE VICINITY OF GREEN BAY...POSSIBLY
   EASTWARD INTO METROPOLITAN MILWAUKEE.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   43169083 43648930 44288864 44508782 43638754 42838792
   42488836 42218971 42389087

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1362
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL
   VA...CENTRAL/SRN MD...DC...DE...EXTREME SERN PA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 272235Z - 280100Z
   
   POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING OVER DISCUSSION AREA FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SRN BOUND OF MOST FAVORABLE AREA WILL BE DEFINED BY LOW-MIDLEVEL
   CYCLONE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS NERN NC.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
   MOVE NNEWD 20-25 KT ACROSS NERN NC...SERN VA AND SRN
   CHESAPEAKE/DELMARVA REGION THROUGH NEXT 4-6 HOURS.  MESOBETA SCALE
   ENHANCEMENTS IN LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
   ABOUT 150 NM NNW-NE OF THIS CYCLONE...WITH JUST ENOUGH BACKING OF
   SFC FLOW AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS THROUGH LOWEST KM AGL TO YIELD SRH
   100-200 J/KG IN THAT LAYER...BASED ON MODIFIED VWP AND RUC FCST
   SOUNDINGS.  FARTHER N...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED LOW CLOUD BAND
   FROM ABOUT 36N73.5W NNWWD ACROSS DE BAY AND SRN NJ COAST.  THIS
   DENOTES CHANGE IN MARINE AIR MASS AND SFC THETAE -- EVIDENT IN 70S F
   SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND MID 60S NJ COAST.
   GREATEST HEAVY RAIN AND SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN W OF NNWWD
   EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS BAND AND E OF I-95 WHERE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
   MAXIMIZED.  THERMODYNAMICALLY...AIR MASS SW OF CLOUD BAND IS
   TROPICAL IN CHARACTER WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...OFFSET ENOUGH
   BY VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CINH TO YIELD MLCAPES
   500-800 J/KG.  ONLY GRADUAL DECREASE IN BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED AFTER
   DARK BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND WEAK SFC COOLING...STILL
   OFFSET BY AMPLE AMBIENT MOISTURE.
   
   HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH APCH OF LOW AS WELL. VERY
   EFFICIENT WARM-CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LARGE
   SUBSET OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER...RESULTING IN 1.5-2.5 INCH/HOUR
   RAIN RATES IN HEAVIEST CORES.  TRAINING/MERGING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
   AND CLUSTERS WILL LOCALLY MAXIMIZE THIS THREAT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   36507585 36707677 37447737 39147705 40537615 40487521
   39697498 38867487 38077509 37257574 36917593

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0643 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 272343Z - 280115Z
   
   ISOLATED DMGG WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW BNDRY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES OUT OF
   THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL DESERTS
   OF AZ /INCLUDING THE PHX METRO AREA/ IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. OVERALL
   SVR THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESOHIGH OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH
   FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF A CONVECTIVE LINE /+ 5
   MB IN 2 HRS AT PRC/ THAT IS MOVING SWD AROUND 20 KTS INTO THE LOWER
   ELEVATIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE RIM. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY
   A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WITH 50-55
   DEG SFC T/TD SPREADS AND 1500-1700 J/KG DCAPE. RELATIVELY LIMITED
   INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT INDIVIDUAL
   STORM LONGEVITY...BUT RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
   GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW BNDRY REMAINS PROBABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
   BNDRY AND LIMITED CINH OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH ONLY MODEST
   INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS /MUCAPES GENERAL AOB
   1000 J/KG/ DMGG WIND THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   A WW. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF THE OUTFLOW WILL BE ENOUGH FOR NEAR SVR
   WINDS WITH DUST STORMS. EXTRAPOLATING RECENT MOTION...THE LEADING
   EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW BNDRY WINDS WILL REACH THE NRN SUBURBS OF PHX
   AROUND 00Z...THE CENTRAL PHX METRO AREA BETWEEN 0030-0100Z AND THE
   SRN PHX METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER 01Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
   33411140 34051250 34461283 35411368 35451357 35221415
   34371399 33481356 32981281 32581208 32621150 32741112
   33291101

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0851 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NWRN OH...NRN/CNTRL IND AND ERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 281351Z - 281615Z
   
   TSTMS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. STRONGER
   CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED
   LATER THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
   
   H5 CHART SHOWS THE SEASONABLY COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS
   REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20 DEG C AT GRB.  THIS COLD
   TROUGH ALOFT HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD SPREAD EWD ATOP
   THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS/MIDWEST
   REGION THROUGH THE AFTN.  12Z DTX/ILX/GRB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AS
   SFC TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 DEG F...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE THE WEAK
   CONVERGENCE IN THE OVERALL WNWLY FLOW REGIME.  BUT...THERE IS
   EVIDENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT CURLING FROM NERN WI ACROSS WRN LWR MI
   SWWD INTO CNTRL IL THAT SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE
   DAY.  TSTMS SHOULD MAINLY FORM INTO CLUSTERS OR SHORT BANDS AND
   PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.  GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS COLD POOL
   ORGANIZATION ALIGNS WITH THE MEAN WNWLY FLOW. 
   
   CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR
   FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTN FROM PARTS OF LWR MI/WRN PARTS
   OF SWRN ONT SWWD INTO PARTS OF IND/NWRN OH.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   39968892 42058720 43858751 44878672 45548431 44698135
   43208070 39638488

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 281701Z - 281900Z
   
   ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OH INTO
   PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY...
   
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE VALUES ARE NOW APPROACHING
   8C/KM TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS IS EVIDENT BY RAPID EXPANSION
   OF CU FIELD AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN OH.  DEEP SWLY
   FLOW WILL LIMIT LAKE BREEZE MOVEMENT INLAND AND STRONG CONVECTION
   SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NWRN PA INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
   HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LONGER LIVED ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   39788208 41808039 42947730 42087698 39358072

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NERN IND...NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558...
   
   VALID 281908Z - 282045Z
   
   ...STRONG STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN LOWER MI...
   
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED OVER LOWER
   MI...EXTENDING INTO NRN IND/OH.  STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN ACROSS
   THIS REGION...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING CONVECTION.  IT APPEARS
   THAT DEEP CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
   ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN AN ARCED FASHION FROM NRN LOWER
   MI...ACROSS SERN LOWER MI...SWWD INTO NERN IND.  SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
   IN THE LEE OF LAKE MI IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
   CU OVER THE WATER AND EASTERN SHORELINE.  WITH TIME THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS SHOULD SPREAD INTO NWRN OH...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY HAS
   PROVEN TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL MOSTLY AOB SEVERE LEVELS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
   
   41228615 42218440 43348466 44438496 44008323 42038332
   40498496

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN CA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 281937Z - 282130Z
   
   FOCUSED DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH VERY MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS
   AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   HIGH DESERTS OF SERN CA NWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
   SIERRA NEVADA AND SRN CA MTNS IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. OVERALL SVR
   THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
   MARGINAL MID LEVEL FLOW...THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER THE SAN
   JOAQUIN VALLEY. MID LEVEL SSELY FLOW ON THE SRN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
   COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT OVER WRN AZ HAS
   SUPPORTED A MARKED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH
   DESERTS OF SERN CA AND WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN CA MTNS NWD INTO THE
   CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG
   A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN CA COASTAL
   RANGES NWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA. EAST OF
   THIS SFC TROUGH SFC DEWPTS WERE FAIRLY HIGH /LOWER 60S IN THE
   COACHELLA VALLEY TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE OWENS VALLEY/. FOCUSED LIFT
   ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE AMBIENT HIGH PWAT VALUES AND
   EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN WILL FAVOR CELL
   TRAINING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. MODEST INSTABILITY
   /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW /10-15
   KTS/ SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE TO NO SVR THREAT EXISTS OVER THE HIGH
   DESERTS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN SIERRA
   NEVADA AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VORT
   CENTER SUGGESTS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER THIS
   AREA MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...REV...HNX...STO...
   
   38661944 38571986 38282003 37661947 37031884 36421854
   35761834 35361826 34751741 33521672 32761612 32861596
   33821574 34621610 36111707 37091751 38071842

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...NERN CO AND PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282003Z - 282200Z
   
   ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR DMGG WIND
   GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NRN KS AND PORTIONS OF SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HRS. FURTHER NW...CONVECTION WAS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
   OVER SERN WY...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND MAY
   POSE A SVR THREAT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN
   CO. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT OVER THE WHOLE AREA APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT
   OVER NRN KS FROM NORTH OF GLD TO NEAR CNK AND TOP. AIRMASS ALONG
   THIS BOUNDARY WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM
   1000-1500 J/KG. RECENT MCK SOUNDING INDICATES A MODEST WARM
   ADVECTION PROFILE WITH 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. GIVEN
   RELATIVELY LITTLE CINH...TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ INDICATES AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND
   THREAT. GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...A WELL ORGANIZED SVR THREAT
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FURTHER NW....TSTMS WERE INTENSIFYING OVER SERN
   WY NEAR A SFC LOW CENTER AND AHEAD OF A VORT MAX MOVING SWD THROUGH
   CENTRAL WY. THIS CONVECTION AND OTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE/FAR NERN CO WILL
   LIKELY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN
   NEB. AS OVER NRN KS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND GREATER SVR THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   39239557 39919688 40810052 42490140 42640372 40960375
   39920303 39480254 39320072 39069908 38979782 38859566

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ORE...WRN AND CENTRAL ID...WRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282048Z - 282245Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
   MTNS OF ID INTO WRN MT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP AHEAD AN MCV OVER SERN ORE EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO
   WCENTRAL ORE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SVR DMGG WINDS. A
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER
   DEWPTS EXTENDING FROM SERN ORE INTO CENTRAL ID AND FAR WRN MT...WITH
   READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IN
   HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...THIS WAS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. 30 KT MID LEVEL
   FLOW ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN RIDGE AND FOCUSED
   LIFT AHEAD OF AN MCV OVER SERN ORE SHOULD FAVOR SOME WEAKLY
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINES. DEEPLY MIXED BDRY LAYER SUGGEST AT LEAST
   SOME DMGG WIND THREAT. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL
   ENOUGH GIVEN MODEST FLOW THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...PDT...MFR...
   
   45091660 44221900 43111987 42341892 42591769 43231489
   44001328 45011213 46151146 47081181 47471287 46121471

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN SIERRA OF CA...NWRN NV AND SCENTRAL ORE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 282222Z - 290045Z
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA MAY BEGIN POSING A
   MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO. ADDITIONAL
   ISOLATED SVR TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER NWRN NV AND SCENTRAL
   ORE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ATTM...CONTINUED CLEARING OF
   MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY
   MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.
   
   RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER LOW/VORT CENTER IS
   OVER SAN BENITO COUNTY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD AROUND 20
   KTS. COPIOUS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED WELL AHEAD OF THIS
   VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM LAST
   NIGHTS TSTMS OVER THE DESERTS. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS SO FAR LIMITED
   INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE NRN/CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA INTO NWRN NV
   AND SCENTRAL ORE. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT WITH
   APPROACH OF UPPER VORT...MID/HIGH LEVEL DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE NRN SIERRA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE
   WERE SEVERAL SMALL POCKETS OF HEATING THAT HAVE AIDED IN SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN SIERRA AND NWRN
   NV/SCENTRAL ORE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY /VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS THAT ONLY A MARGINAL SVR
   HAIL THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH PWAT VALUES SUGGESTS
   THAT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE GREATER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...
   
   38231913 38141986 40052121 41222201 41662235 42832242
   43102165 43242012 42231945 40971902 39061873

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN INTO CNTRL OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282236Z - 282330Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   A CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING OUT OF E-CNTRL IND INTO W-CNTRL OH /MERCER
   AND DARKE COUNTIES/ HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED WITH TRAILING PORTION
   OF THIS LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS BMG/HUF AS
   OF 2225Z.  WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   MOIST...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WITHIN DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER W-CNTRL
   INTO FAR SWRN OH.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS
   A SHARP CUT-OFF IN THIS BUOYANCY WITH SEWD EXTENT OWING TO
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BUBBLE...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH EXTENDS FROM
   CLINTON TO FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN OH.  THEREFORE...EXPECT GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS TO REMAIN N OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE NOTION THAT THE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL BEGIN TO COOL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   INDICATES THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
   
   39888508 40548476 41248416 41278315 40748273 40258296
   39838360 39348482 39438505

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0555 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558...
   
   VALID 282255Z - 290000Z
   
   REMAINING PART OF WW 558 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.
   
   RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT EARLIER
   CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED MUCH OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS
   LOWER MI.  HOWEVER...INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD THROUGH WI COUPLED WITH LOCALLY STRONGER
   HEATING OVER SWRN LOWER MI HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO RENEWED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER MECOSTA...MONTCALM AND KENT COUNTIES. ANY SEVERE
   THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN QUITE BRIEF.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   42098419 43428440 43968475 44208539 45388548 45868498
   45608377 44638299 44258317 43628254 42618274 42058306
   41878366

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0951 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 290251Z - 290415Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   TSTMS /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM AUDRAIN COUNTY MO SEWD TO MONROE COUNTY
   INTO W-CNTRL IL.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH IL/IND ARE LIKELY
   CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT.  PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE THAT INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL MO REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. ADDITIONALLY...LOCAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE WLY FLOW AROUND
   2 KM VEERING TO NWLY AT 45-50 KTS AT 6 KM...WITH RESULTANT 30-40 KTS
   OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
   
   SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...
   
   39999134 38739005 37518896 36638938 36549001 37529111
   38889206 39789288 40339249

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 291627Z - 291730Z
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF NEW
   ENGLAND...
   
   AIRMASS IS HEATING RAPIDLY FROM NJ...NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW
   ENGLAND ALONG WRN FRINGE OF DEEPER CLOUD SHIELD.  ADDITIONALLY...LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE LOWER HUDSON
   VALLEY INTO SRN NH.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
   THIS ZONE AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR EXISTS FOR SUSTAINING
   ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND SOME HAIL.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...
   
   41017478 43057258 42897100 41747218 40607378

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA...UPSTATE NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 291646Z - 291745Z
   
   ...THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NWRN
   PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
   
   DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO
   INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NY OVER THE LAST HOUR.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...ALONG WITH
   QUITE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE QUITE STEEP OVER NY...IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM IN LOWEST 3KM...HIGHER
   INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OF LAKE
   ERIE/ONTARIO.  UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE INITIALLY...AS
   STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
   FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   42278061 44427548 43297511 41167930

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ORE AND CENTRAL/SRN ID
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL....WATCH POSSIBLE
   
   VALID 291822Z - 292015Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SERN ORE BEFORE
   DEVELOPING ENEWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL ID IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. TSTMS
   MAY BEGIN POSING A SVR THREAT BY 21Z. THUS WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE
   IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL TSTMS WERE IN THEIR
   MATURING STAGES OVER SERN ORE JUST AHEAD OF MID LEVEL VORT CENTER.
   RECENT TRACKING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS FIELD OVER CENTRAL ID INDICATED
   NEWD MOVEMENT AROUND 20 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT MOTION
   INDICATES MOST OF THIS CLOUD FIELD WILL BE OUT OF CENTRAL ID BY 22Z.
   AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LOW/DEVELOPING TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DESTABILIZE OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL ID AND BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE OVER
   CENTRAL ID IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPTS /PARTLY AIDED
   BY EARLIER PRECIP/ WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S EXTENDS
   EWD FROM WCENTRAL INTO CENTRAL ID. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...RECENT BOI VWP DATA
   INDICATES AROUND 40 KTS OF FLOW IN THE 7-8 KM LAYER. THUS SUFFICIENT
   SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POSSIBLY AN ORGANIZED
   SVR HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...PDT...
   
   44701565 44321813 43751904 42641929 42261846 42211785
   42141525 42631394 43481353 44151378 44571446

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 291847Z - 292115Z
   
   CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN
   MT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER ERN ORE. APPROACHING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
   MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE AND SVR THREAT.
   AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU/INCIPIENT TSTMS OVER THE
   BITTERROOT MTNS OF FAR SWRN MT. INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR
   SHOULD AID IN SOME TSTM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT HR. HOWEVER...
   INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING BELT OF
   STRONGER SHEAR WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE SAME TIME
   FROM. THEREFORE DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000
   J/KG/ AND MODERATE SHEAR...THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY BE ENOUGH
   THAT SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HRS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
   
   46161107 47211301 46751414 46031439 44751321 44241212
   44781106 45511036