Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

It looks like PR is getting a lot of rain from what is left of Erika.
Luis, any rain totals so far?
Be safe and I hope there is not too much flooding.

Barbara

[Gustywind]

Here is the link...after a search from my part http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html
Here is the latest in Barbados

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

2009.09.05 1200 UTC
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 79%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TBPB 051200Z 09012KT 9999 -SHRA FEW012CB SCT014 29/25 Q1016 BECMG AT 1205 FEW012CB SCT014
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se1ir.html

[Gustywind]

Here is the latest in Barbados:rarrow: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

2009.09.05 1200 UTC
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 79%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TBPB 051200Z 09012KT 9999 -SHRA FEW012CB SCT014 29/25 Q1016 BECMG AT 1205 FEW012CB SCT014

[cycloneye]

For those who are visiting our tent thread,all the web cams and radars are at the first post of the thread.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
846 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

PRZ001-005-006-008>010-012-VIZ001-060000-
/O.EXA.TJSJ.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-090906T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...COROZAL...
AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...AGUADILLA...ISABELA...HATILLO...
QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...
HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CULEBRA...ANNA`S RETREAT...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...
CRUZ BAY
846 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES. ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING

* A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
FORMER DEPRESSION ERIKA...WAS NOW LOCATED BETWEEN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS DURING THE DAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRAILING THIS BROAD
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST IMPACT WILL
BE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. MUDSLIDES WILL BE
LIKELY IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STEEP TERRAIN.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
DEVELOPING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EVENT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
859 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
CIALES
CAGUAS
CIDRA
COROZAL
COMERIO
AGUAS BUENAS
BARRANQUITAS
JUNCOS
GURABO
OROCOVIS
NARANJITO
MOROVIS
TOA ALTA
SAN LORENZO
VEGA ALTA
LAS PIEDRAS
DORADO
NAGUABO
MANATI
VEGA BAJA
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL NOON AST

* AT 859 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR
LIKELY. SEVERAL REPORTS OF DESTRUCTIVE FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED ALREADY. TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
922 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA
VIEQUES

* UNTIL 1215 PM AST

* AT 919 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER CULEBRA
AND EASTERN VIEQUES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS COULD TOTAL UP TO THREE INCHES.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[Gustywind]

[knotimpaired]

Good morning all,

Since midnight we have received .98" mainly starting at about 6 am. Yesterday we only had about 1/2".

It is still raining but I think we are done with the heavy stuff.

The main concern right now is those wanting to get off the island, especially those going to San Juan International (SJU). Our local airlines have not been flying but Vieques Airlines is going to try to get a flight out to SJU at noon. Not good for a friend we are taking to the airport in a few minutes. Her flight out of SJU is not until 8 PM tonight. That is a long wait.

The ferries are running on schedule though.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

VIC020-030-051730-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-090905T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
1133 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM AST FOR SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN ISLANDS...

AT 1122 AM AST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE...SAINT THOMAS.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

Here is the graphic of precipitation.So far between 2-5 inches haved fallen with isolated spots having more.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE...AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

The convective activity associated with this tiny area have diminshed significantly. Humm...good news for our friends from of Barbados. That was certainly an opportunity for garden, treeas and plants to be showered

Latest 4 hours weather observations at Barbados.

Conditions at Sep 05, 2009 - 01:00 PM EDTSep 05, 2009
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 96.8 F (36.0 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob TBPB 051700Z 10010KT 9999 FEW012 SCT038 BKN280 30/25 Q1015 NOSIG

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 1 PM (17) Sep 05 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.97 (1015) E 12
Noon (16) Sep 05 84 (29) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) ESE 14
11 AM (15) Sep 05 82 (28) 77 (25) 30.03 (1017) ESE 16 light rain
10 AM (14) Sep 05 78 (26) 75 (24) 30.03 (1017) E 22 light rain showers; showers in the vicinity
9 AM (13) Sep 05 84 (29) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) E 20 showers in the vicinity

[cycloneye]

Preliminary rainfall totals in Puerto Rico / Virgin islands

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
122 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

...PRELIMARY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA...

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS (INCHES OF RAIN) FOR
A 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 12 PM AST SEPTEMBER 5 2009.


ID PRECIP :LOCATION

SLGP4 7.58 :QUEB BLANC/SAN LOREN (PR)
VALP4 6.91 :R VALENCIANO-JUNCOS (PR)
SLRP4 6.34 :COOP OBSERVER SAN LORENZO (PR)
LCSP4 6.33 :LAGO CARITE AT SPILLS (PR)
SLNP4 5.99 :R GR D LOIZA/SAN LOR (PR)
DEXP4 5.91 :FT ALLEN RES CTR (PR)
CAKP4 5.40 :RIO TURABO/BORINQUEN (PR)
LICP4 5.15 :LAGO ICACOS DAMSITE (PR)
SLKP4 5.06 :R CAYAGUAS@CERRO GOR (PR)
NGIP4 4.87 :R ICACOS NR NAGUABO (PR)
ACTP4 4.83 :COOP OBSERVER VILLALBA (PR)
GUVP4 4.71 :LAS PIEDRAS CON RAIN (PR)
GARP4 4.63 :GURABO ABAJO RAINGAG (PR)
NGKP4 4.59 :R BLANCO NR FLORIDA (PR)
GUSP4 4.59:PUEBLITO DEL R RAING (PR)
LOCP4 4.20 :LAGO LOCO AT DAM (PR)
NGHP4 4.34 :QUEB GUABA/NAGUABO (PR)
BZDP4 4.15 :BARRIO BEATRIZ PCPN (PR)
SLLP4 4.03 :R GR D LOIZA@QUEB AR (PR)
BZCP4 4.07 :VAQUERIA EL NIMO (PR)
CAIP4 3.54 :LA PLAZA RAINGAGE (PR)
VAMP4 3.91 :BARRIO MONTONES RAIN (PR)
GURP4 3.74 :GURABO AT GURABO (PR)
CABP4 3.62 :R BAIROA ABV BAIROA (PR)
PRTP4 3.62:PONCE 7N/R PORT TIBS (PR)
LCOP4 3.84 :LG COAMO/LOS LLANOS (PR)
PIEP4 3.50 :R HUMACAO@L PIEDRAS (PR)
VINP4 3.58 :VILLALBA 3NE/BAR APE (PR)
TOVP4 3.47 :R TOA VACA ABV L T V (PR)
TOXP4 3.46 :LAGO TOA VACA, PR (PR)
ZJAP4 3.15 :RIO GUAYANES-YABUCOA (PR)
BZBP4 3.03 :BAIROA ARRIBA PCPN (PR)
SLMP4 3.07 :QUEB ARENAS RAINGAGE (PR)
IANP4 3.03 :RIO INABON NR PONCE (PR)
CNAP4 2.95 :R CANOVANAS-CAMPO RI (PR)
GUTP4 2.74 :R GURABO BL EL MANGO (PR)
GCAP4 2.74 :GUANICA (PR)
YBUP4 2.73 :YABUCOA (PR)
PCEP4 2.73 :R CERRILLOS ABV L CE (PR)
JAMP4 2.71 :BRIO COLLORES/JYUYA (PR)
CAGP4 2.64:DE LOIZA @ CAGUAS (PR)
JUAP4 2.75 :R JACAGUAS@JUAN DIAZ (PR)
CAHP4 2.54 :CANABONCITO RAINGAGE (PR)
GCRP4 2.35 :R GUAYANES/YBUCOA 1N (PR)
ZECP4 2.32 :RIO MATON-CAYEY-ALRT (PR)
CEIP4 2.36 :NSSR/CEIBA 3SE (PR)
ANMP4 2.32 :L ANA MARIA/COTO LRL (PR)
PCZP4 2.24 :R PORTUGUES-PONCE (PR)
ADSP4 2.24 :B SLTILLO NR ADJNTS (PR)
GSGP4 2.12 :R GUANAJIBO@SAN GERM (PR)
PCXP4 2.29 :LAGO CERRILLOS DAM (PR)
DRAP4 2.04 :LAGO CIDRA NR CIDRA (PR)
CIEP4 1.99 :R BAYAMON BL L CIDRA (PR)
LADP4 1.85 :LG ADJUNTAS/ADJUNTAS (PR)
MSAP4 1.53 :R MAMEYES NR SABANA (PR)
TIST 1.35 :ST THOMAS INTL AIRPORT (USVI)

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE...AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Here are some photos of the flooding in Puerto Rico.So far no fatalities haved been reported.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W FROM 10N
TO 21N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. THE CHANCE
OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS LOW.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 12N
TO 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15.5N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W.
THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT EARLIER
WAS MAINTAINING ITSELF FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W HAS
WEAKENED IN INTENSITY. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE IN THAT AREA. ( Here is the area i was talking about this morning)

...THE ITCZ...

18N16W 16N28W 11N34W 9N45W 7N56W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 10N31W 9N42W 7N48W 10N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS
THE THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 90W. ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TOP OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A SECOND CLUSTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS IN CYCLONIC FLOW. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING
ONSHORE...ON TOP OF MAZATLAN MEXICO...CONTINUING EASTWARD.
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS UNDERNEATH UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 102W IN MEXICO EASTWARD TO 90W.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY BLENDS WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG 89W/90W. ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W. A SECOND
CLUSTER IS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SURFACE
TROUGH WINDS ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND BEYOND 30N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...AND THEN
SHOOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE
REMNANT OF ERIKA IS ALONG 21N69W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...
TO 15N69W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 26N65W
ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER GRAZES THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W
AND 72W...AND FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W AT THE
NICARAGUA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF
A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 83W FROM
COSTA RICA TO 15N NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N
TO 33N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W...AROUND THE 26N65W CYCLONIC CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND
60W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 33N33W TO 28N38W TO 23N43W TO 15N46W

$$
MT
LOOKING AT AFRICA...
The next candidate on Africa seems pretty impressive and healthy for the moment, t its predeccesors... but let's wait for the poof-test before.Time will tell but for sure looking good today.













Looks like numerous suspicious areas are doting Africa, thus pretty south....



SHEAR TENDENCY FOR THE TWAVES...



SAL[img][/img]

Sal shoud not be an issue for the twaves along theirs trips over the Atlantic ocean...Its has fairly diminished, interresting week ahead...

[Gustywind]

Here are some photos of the flooding in Puerto Rico.So far no fatalities haved been reported.

as usual... pretty amazing for "just" reactivation of remnants. Tkanks God, ...no fatalities reported

[cycloneye]

Latest discussion from the NWS San Juan.It looks like we are not of the woods yet.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051907
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA BY LABOR DAY. NICE DAY EXPECTED FOR LABOR
DAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...12Z GFS40 MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE BLOWUP OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA.
BASED ON 850-500 MB RH AND OMEGA FIELDS AND WHERE BEST DIFLUENCE IS
FCST THIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE MONA CHANNEL ANYWHERE FROM NW
OFF AGUADILLA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 17N. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT
CURRENT TSTM CLUSTER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES INLAND OR A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL NEW TSTM
ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PR. THIS IS WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY
LATEST 06Z WRF-NMM MODEL. NONE OF THE MODELS OR FCSTRS HAVE THE
SKILL TO ACCURATELY PREDICT WHERE THIS EXACTLY WILL OCCUR.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT`S FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM. EVENING SHIFT WILL
REEVALUATE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THE WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED FOR SOME PARTS OF THE ISLAND MOST LIKELY FOR THE ERN
THIRD WHERE MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS.

SO AT LEAST THROUGH 8PM...THINK WE WILL REMAIN IN A MID-HIGH LEVEL
OVERCAST WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. GFS40 SHOWS K INDEX AND PWATS SLOWLY COMING
DOWN AFTER 06Z SO PERHAPS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS IT WAS
OVERNIGHT BUT I STILL CAN`T RULED ANOTHER REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT.

MID-LVL CIRCULATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY THAT IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT SHOULD BE FAR AWAY FROM US.

LOOKS LIKE TROPICS WILL TAKE A BREAK NEXT WEEK. MJO IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AND LIKELY RESULT IN A QUIET TROPICAL
PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECTING A DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

SEE PNS AND LSR REPORTS FOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND FLOODING REPORTS.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[msbee]

only one photo showed up for me Luis
thank God no fatalities though