MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MT/MUCH OF WY/WRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 032202Z - 040000Z
   
   ...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. MANY
   STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION IS UNCLEAR...
   
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER MT THIS
   AFTN...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS
   THE NRN ROCKIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 35 KT
   THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
   TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS MT...WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000
   J/KG. ACROSS WY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
   THE VALLEYS...INSTABILITY IS GREATER. LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW WILL
   SUPPORT LOW/MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LATEST BILLINGS
   RADAR INDICATING SUPERCELLS FORMING ACROSS STILLWATER AND SWEET
   GRASS COUNTIES WEST OF BIL. ISOLD LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT GIVEN
   STEEP LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS
   WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   41720545 42260770 42890903 45081143 45891226 46931073
   47110882 46750666 46220505 45170300 43020239

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0658 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...IA...ERN WI...WRN U.P. OF MI...NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579...580...
   
   VALID 032358Z - 040130Z
   
   COLD FRONT ARCING FROM UPPER MI ACROSS CNTRL WI AND INTO NCNTRL IA
   ATTM WILL CONTINUE STEADILY SEWD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
   CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIR MASS. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING DEVELOPMENT
   NEAR THE FRONT OVER UPPER MI AND NERN WI...NEW STORMS HAVE RECENTLY
   FORMED ON THE FRONT FROM WCNTRL WI...ACROSS EXTREME SERN MN...AND
   OVER NCNTRL IA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
   FAVOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD
   SEWD WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS LOCALLY
   MERGING INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT.
   
   SITUATION ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW 581...FROM SWRN IA ACROSS NRN
   IL...REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY PRESENCE OF MCS DEBRIS/AND
   OUTFLOW AIR MASS OVER WRN/CNTRL SECTIONS OF IA...AND WEAK
   FRONTAL/CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED WAVE NEAR THE MS RIVER. STORMS APPEAR
   TO BE INCREASING NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT
   INTO WRN IL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHEAR IS ALSO WEAKER ACROSS
   THIS REGION SUGGESTING THAT WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORMS
   WITH MARGINAL HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL DOMINATE UNTIL STRONGER
   FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
   
   41478758 40859498 43229499 44369026 45889018 46158655
   43508748

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/IND...NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...
   
   VALID 040034Z - 040200Z
   
   BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS WRN
   PORTION OF WW 581 AND EXTENDS FROM SW OF VPZ TO BMI. GUSTS TO NEAR
   50KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS LINE OVER THE PAST HOUR AND EXPECT
   STORMS TO CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT WHILE MOVING INTO NWRN
   IND OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   AIR MASS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NERN IL TO WRN OH WAS
   VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. DESPITE SOME DIURNAL
   COOLING...RELATIVELY STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATES NOTED ON ILX
   SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ENEWD ATOP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND LIKELY MAINTAIN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ROBUST STORM
   UPDRAFTS. ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM ERN IND ACROSS WRN OH
   HAVE RECENTLY BEEN STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF STORMS NOW MOVING
   ACROSS THE OH RIVER TOWARD WV. OUTFLOW REINFORCED STATIONARY FRONT
   OVER THESE AREAS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   39618250 40158927 41708860 41718545 41468472 41498337
   41168258 40528254 40568215 39908216

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1035 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 040335Z - 040530Z
   
   CHANCE FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL AREAL
   EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO SMALL FOR A WATCH.
   
   STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI OFF LAKE
   MI AT ABOUT 30KT. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI
   THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WAS MOIST AND MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI TO MAINTAIN STOUT
   STORM UPDRAFTS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. FURTHERMORE...
   CLOUD-BEARING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40KT COULD
   SUPPORT ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORM SCALE CIRCULATIONS WITH SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. CORRIDOR OF
   GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE APPEARS TO BE FROM LDM AREA
   EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NCNTRL PORTION OF LOWER MI...PERHAPS AS FAR
   EAST AS THE THUMB AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
   IF A LONGER-LIVED AND LARGER SCALE BOW ECHO/WIND THREAT DOES
   EVOLVE...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   43688265 43218473 42968630 43158716 43658698 44258583
   44438501 44508351

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 AM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN PA/NJ/SERN NY/DE/MD/WV/NRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041551Z - 041745Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS. WW WILL LIKELY BE
   REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   
   GENERALLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ASSOCIATED
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING /TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS/
   ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE RESULTING IN
   AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.  CU DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW CBS ARE NOW
   EVIDENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM S CENTRAL PA SWWD INTO
   WV...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   
   THIS REGION REMAINS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER BELT OF MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...WITH MODERATELY-STRONG/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE
   30 TO 50 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE.  AS
   STORMS INCREASE...EXPECT ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS TO SHIFT EWD OFF
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   40917369 40197405 39387447 38967525 37987730 37887984
   38518188 39308167 39818047 39967897 41137630 41287467

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1437
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY/NRN VT/NRN NH/MUCH OF ME
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041732Z - 041930Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   APPRECIABLE CLOUDINESS PERSISTS FROM NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT
   MODEST DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS
   RESULTING IN SLOW DESTABILIZATION /MEAN-LAYER CAPE FROM 500 TO NEAR
   1000 J/KG ATTM/.  THOUGH MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THIS
   REGION -- ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SRN ONTARIO...SCATTERED STORMS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION NEAR MORE SUBTLE AREAS
   OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
   
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN FURTHER S...BUT MORE
   PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND FASTER FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS
   RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
   THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS NEAR
   STRONGER STORMS -- WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   45406776 43747052 43357496 44007631 44677582 44937470
   44967135 45937020 47416925 47026779

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN INDIANA/NWRN
   AND N CENTRAL OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041856Z - 042100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE.  LOCAL SEVERE THREAT WITHIN DEVELOPING STORMS MAY
   REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING IN WSW-ENE BANDS NEAR AND
   AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM CENTRAL IL ENEWD INTO NRN OH.  AIRMASS
   HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION...AS DAYTIME
   HEATING CONTINUES ALONG FRONT -- JUST N OF WSW-ENE CLOUD SHIELD JUST
   S OF THIS AREA. 
   
   THOUGH STRONGER WIND FIELD AND GREATER LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS N
   AND E OF THIS REGION...SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS.  WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
   LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL INCREASING...WW MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   41478150 40848167 40558374 40028603 40008897 40618959
   40888627 41868374

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1439
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WV/NRN VA/MD/S CENTRAL AND SERN PA/DE/NJ/SERN NY/CT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582...
   
   VALID 041917Z - 042045Z
   
   STORMS/SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW.
   
   LATEST RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN/ROUGHLY N-S LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
   ERN PA AND INTO WRN NJ/SERN NY ATTM...WITH OTHER STORMS MOVING
   ACROSS WV TOWARD NRN VA.  AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- ACROSS THIS
   AREA.  THREAT HAS DECREASED ACROSS CENTRAL PA NW OF MORE ACTIVE
   CONVECTION...BUT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   41487471 42017228 40557184 38957475 37358088 38358159
   38938103 39287862 39897635

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...FAR SWRN SD AND FAR NERN
   CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041919Z - 042115Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM
   SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
   APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NE OF
   A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...W/V
   IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING SEWD ACROSS ERN WY ATTM.
   REGIONAL PROFILER DATA GENERALLY SHOW ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS OF
   WLY FLOW AT 6 KM. LOW-LEVEL ELYS AROUND 10 KTS WILL PROVIDE AROUND
   30 TO 35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ALSO
   INDICATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...MAINLY WITH A LARGE HAIL
   THREAT...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN WRN NEB. FURTHER WWD ALONG
   THE NEB/WY BORDER...OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT FROM SHORTWAVE...SHOULD HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS. A
   GREATER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY EXIST IN THIS
   REGION...WHERE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
   
   40450203 41110451 41510527 42080571 42870572 43380522
   43480356 43200214 42840067 41969958 40769982

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ORE/WA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 042130Z - 042330Z
   
   TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS INTERIOR/ERN SECTIONS OF ORE AND
   WA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND A TSTM WATCH MAY BE
   REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED ON THE CASCADES WHERE WEAK
   UPSLOPE PUSH OF MARINE LAYER AIR MASS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAVE
   CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION AND EROSION OF THE CAP. MEANWHILE...
   INTENSE SURFACE HEATING OCCURRING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS
   THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF NERN ORE HAS GENERATED VERY STEEP LOW THROUGH
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
   RESULTANT HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL FUEL INTENSE
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO
   INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFTING/MOVING GENERALLY
   EWD/NEWD. STORM COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A
   WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WIND MAX SPREADING NNEWD ACROSS WCNTRL ORE
   PER LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS. BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
   WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...
   
   47011825 45571782 44641886 44562036 43642189 46112165
   47832108 48792094 48892082 48751953 48131858

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...WV...VA...NWRN NC...MD...DE...SRN
   NJ...EXTREME SERN NY...CT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 042245Z - 050115Z
   
   BROKEN LINE OF ROBUST STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM ERN LONG
   ISLAND/SERN CT...AND ALSO FROM SRN NJ WSWWD ACROSS DELMARVA. STORMS
   ALONG THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST IN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND
   MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
   POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST CELLS ACROSS SRN NJ AND DELMARVA AREAS
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   AIR MASS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WATCH 582...FROM THE SRN PA BORDER
   SWD ACROSS NRN VA...HAS BEEN OVERTURNED AND STABILIZED BY EARLIER
   CONVECTION. BUT A LARGE CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY/ERN KY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE WRN
   EDGE OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD
   OF THIS CONVECTION...FROM ERN KY ACROSS SRN WV AND INTO SWRN/SRN
   VA/NWRN NC...WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL LOCALLY INTENSE MULTICELL
   CONVECTION WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
   POSSIBLE. STORM MERGERS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTION IN VERY
   MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
   FLOODING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATES THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   A TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS STORM ACTIVITY GIVEN
   OVERALL RANDOM/BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN
   GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
   
   41727214 40817240 39267440 38457506 37827615 37257765
   35998067 35878124 36988251 38248324 38678140 39118062
   39497808 39367731 39397674 40257384

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0613 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...ME...MA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 583...
   
   VALID 042313Z - 050045Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
   EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCHES ARE NOT
   ANTICIPATED AFTER WATCH 583 EXPIRES. PARTS OF THE WATCH ARE LIKELY
   TO BE CLEARED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.
   
   NUMEROUS PREFRONTAL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ISOLATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM UPSTATE NY EWD/NEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND.
   GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WAS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS
   NWRN ME...WITH A MORE INTENSE LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
   COLD FRONT OVER SRN QUEBEC. ELSEWHERE...DESPITE MODEST FORCING AND
   ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR
   LINE SEGMENTS...BULK OF ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE HINDERED BY GENERALLY
   WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND REPORT
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LATEST TRENDS AND TIME OF DAY SHOULD PRECLUDE
   THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WATCHES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   45896764 44496962 43447029 42437141 42427600 43177723
   44107539 44897459 45087142 47256925

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0947 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE....ERN WA...NRN ID
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584...
   
   VALID 050247Z - 050415Z
   
   LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON HOT/UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS PARTS OF
   ERN WA/ORE AND NRN ID AND RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS. MOST INTENSE CELLS APPEAR TO BE MOVING FROM COLUMBIA
   COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST WHITMAN COUNTY WA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
   WINDS WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
   
   48932074 48871601 46901503 46821627 44891675 44901905
   45861941 46851796 47512008

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584...
   
   VALID 050424Z - 050530Z
   
   ...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WA
   TONIGHT...
   
   LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN WA LATE THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE
   MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
   SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE REGION. SPOKANE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED
   850-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
   40KT. SPLITTING SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR ACROSS
   ADAMS AND SERN SPOKANE COUNTIES IN NERN WA. GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC AND
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTED BY SPOKANE SOUNDING...STORMS SHOULD
   BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WHILE MOVING
   NNEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH WATCH 584 EXPIRING IN LESS
   THAN AN HOUR...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO COVER THE AREA AROUND SPOKANE
   WITH ANOTHER WATCH BEYOND 05Z.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 07/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OTX...
   
   46841703 46821942 48931973 49011708

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1446
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 AM CDT WED JUL 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 050648Z - 050915Z
   
   HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX WITH
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...OCCURRING ATOP OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY
   WEAKENING MCS. 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES SHOULD BE COMMON WITH CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING IN THIS REGIME...AND LOCALIZED RATES BRIEFLY MAY EXCEED 3
   INCHES/HOUR.  CELLS MAY DEVELOP REPEATEDLY AND/OR MERGE OVER SOME OF
   THE SAME AREAS...ENHANCING THREAT.
   
   INITIAL MCS HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY WHILE MOVING SSEWD FROM SAT
   AREA TOWARD MIDDLE TX COAST AND TX COASTAL BEND.  ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY LIKEWISE SHOULD MOVE SSEWD ACROSS ARANSAS...SAN
   PATRICIO...NUECES...NRN JIM WELLS...NRN DUVAL AND NERN WEBB COUNTIES
   DURING NEXT 2 HOURS...WHILE DECELERATING AND WEAKENING.
   MEANWHILE...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE N OF THIS
   BOUNDARY FROM NEAR UVA-COT LINE EWD TOWARD I-37.  VWP AND RUC FCST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE 20-30 KT FLOW NOW OBSERVED JUST ABOVE SFC...S OF
   BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE OVER OUTFLOW POOL THAT SLOPES UPWARD WITH
   NWD EXTENT.  PARCELS SHOULD BE LIFTED TO LFC IN THIS WEAKLY CAPPED
   AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS
   WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST WITH PW 2-2.25 INCH BASED ON PRE-STORM
   CONDITIONS OBSERVED IN RAOBS...GPS DATA...AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS.
   EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PRECIP PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
   CONVECTIVE COLUMN BASED ON PROJECTED DEPTH OF SUPERFREEZING LAYER
   FOR MOIST LIFTED PARCEL -- REACHING TO BETWEEN 500-550 MB.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
   
   27889797 28009887 28259940 28739980 29069927 28949865
   28589797 28209759

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT WED JUL 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NJ/DEL/CENTRAL AND ERN MD/MUCH OF VA/NWRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051723Z - 051900Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES.
   WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE THROUGH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER...WITH MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW
   RANGING FROM 1000 TO NEAR 2000 J/KG.  MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS INDICATED BY RADAR OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR
   SO...WITH A FEW RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY
   REGION AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IN WRN VA. 
   
   EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA -- WITHIN MOIST/INCREASINGLY-UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT.  THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
   POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE...MODERATE/GENERALLY WLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT
   APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY
   AS CONVECTION MATURES INTO SMALL-SCALE CLUSTERS/LINES.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...
   
   40017488 39477439 38007536 36247934 36018207 36868164
   38937823

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CDT WED JUL 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAIN AND SVR POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051816Z - 052115Z
   
   STORMS ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST WILL LIKELY BUILD SWWD WITH TIME
   WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURST
   WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN AREA OF DEEP
   MOISTURE CONVERGENCE /SFC-850 MB/ SOUTH OF UPPER LOW. THIS ZONE OF
   CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS BUILDING SWWD INTO VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT. CONTINUED SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO
   NEAR 3000 J/KG S AND W OF CRP. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW
   LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES AS SEEN ON CRP VAD...STORMS WILL
   PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWWD. STRONG INSTABILITY AND PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE
   SUGGEST ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
   HEATING HOURS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   28889698 29289605 29139562 28729553 28249609 27519716
   27379758 27389930 28189960 28419932 28579852

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 PM CDT WED JUL 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL WA AND NERN ORE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052213Z - 052345Z
   
   AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
   PACIFIC EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED IN THE ERN
   FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADE MTNS EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE LOWER
   ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF NERN ORE. THE WSR-88D FROM PENDLETON ORE
   SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT WHICH APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE
   OF THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE INSTABILITY AND
   MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...SEW...
   
   44501736 44482007 45332122 47012155 48412134 48642050
   48201957 46601971 46051917 45911723 45101685

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1450
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0552 PM CDT WED JUL 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...VA/MD/DE/NRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052252Z - 060015Z
   
   A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE IS ALSO
   POSSIBLE ACROSS WW 585 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
   UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 1500 TO
   2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NERN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN
   FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH
   COMBINED WITH THE WIDESPREAD ASCENT SUGGESTS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
   WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...THE LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS
   AND RESULTING OUTFLOWS SHOULD ALLOW THE A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE
   SEVERE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC COOLING TAKES PLACE THIS
   EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
   0100Z.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
   35897928 36108088 36608124 37518022 39487737 39517592
   38857483 36737771

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0925 PM CDT WED JUL 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WA...NE ORE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586...
   
   VALID 060225Z - 060400Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS ACROSS NERN ORE AND NRN WA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL
   AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL IMPRESSIVE ANVILS
   FROM STORM CLUSTERS ONGOING IN NERN ORE AND NRN WA. THE SMALL
   MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ONGOING JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NEWD ACROSS
   SRN WA AND NERN ORE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
   INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR BOISE ID EXTENDING
   NNWWD ACROSS NERN ORE TO NORTHWEST OF SPOKANE WA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
   STILL RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
   MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW
   MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASES
   DURING THE MID-EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...
   
   45211713 45141897 45881966 48562051 49121901 48591814
   46001652