SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

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PTrackerLA
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2141 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Mar 16, 2009 1:40 pm

After almost 1.5" overnight our totals are in the 2.5"-3.5" range for the event. This was badly needed as well and should really help everything green up just in time for spring. Hopefully we don't go too long before the next rainfall but dry weather for the rest of the week sounds nice after 4 days of clouds and rain!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Cooler and wet

#2142 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Mar 16, 2009 3:28 pm

vbhoutex wrote:that hail report is about 3 miles from me-we didn't see any or at least I didn't-will look for evidence though
Further investigation reveals we definitely had some pretty good hail here also. It was a pretty widespread event for the Spring Branch-Memorial area with numerous reports. My first clue(and I did think about it as it was happening-it was dark)should have been the small new growth twigs and leaves coming out of the trees when there was no wind involved.
Today is GEORGEOUS!!! There is still a sun!!!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2143 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Mar 16, 2009 3:55 pm

NWS HGX AFD pessimistic on rain chances in the near future.

If the GFS is to be believed, we'll be watering the lawns again as the next meaningful rain is two weeks away.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2144 Postby CajunMama » Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:38 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:After almost 1.5" overnight our totals are in the 2.5"-3.5" range for the event. This was badly needed as well and should really help everything green up just in time for spring. Hopefully we don't go too long before the next rainfall but dry weather for the rest of the week sounds nice after 4 days of clouds and rain!


Yeah pt the rain was badly needed. And we need more. We're still 6" behind for the year and it's only mid-March.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2145 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:19 am

Rain chances look to increase again Monday into Tuesday as a storm system exits the Inter-Mountain West into the Plains bringing down a cold front and more S/W's in the southern stream. While the best chance for severe weather appear to remain N of the Metro Area, more beneficial rains may be in store for our drought situation. HGX AFD this morning...snipet...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND WILL BRING SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARMUP BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RETURN FLOW
OFF THE GULF BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS. THINK MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS IMPULSES BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BRING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE POSITIONED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LEVELS (PRECIP
WATER VALUES >1.50 INCHES) WILL EXIST FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH 40%-50% POPS ON TUESDAY. CARRYING LOWER POPS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY ENTER THE AREA...BUT
THESE DAYS COULD END BEING ON THE WET SIDE TOO. ANY RAIN WE GET NEXT
WEEK WILL HELP. THE YEAR TO DATE DEFICIT AT IAH IS 4.16 INCHES...CLL
IS AT 3.53 INCHES...GLS IS AT 3.90 INCHES...AND HOU IS AT 6.42 INCHES.
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#2146 Postby CajunMama » Thu Mar 19, 2009 6:00 pm

I went to lunch today with a couple of coworkers. It was such a beautiful warm day we sat outside on the patio. I'm sunburnt!!!!!
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Re:

#2147 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Mar 19, 2009 6:02 pm

CajunMama wrote:I went to lunch today with a couple of coworkers. It was such a beautiful warm day we sat outside on the patio. I'm sunburnt!!!!!

How long was that lunch???? :eek: :eek: :cheesy: :cheesy:
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#2148 Postby jasons2k » Fri Mar 20, 2009 11:09 am

That's funny - I had lunch outside yesterday too! It is gorgeous, that's for sure.

Looks more and more like we will get some rain next week. We sure do need it!
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#2149 Postby CajunMama » Fri Mar 20, 2009 7:31 pm

We ate outside again today. I got the other arm sunburnt today :lol:

Edit to add 3/21. Went to a baseball game today. More sunburn!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2150 Postby jasons2k » Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:47 am

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Active weather week setting up with the main story the wind today and then thunderstorms Tuesday-Friday.

Powerful storm system lifting into the plains this morning from the SW US. Strong surface low pressure in the lee of the Rockies is resulting in a good 40-50kt low level jet across our region. Expect to see some of this energy mix down today giving sustained speeds of 20-25mph at the surface with gusts up to 40mph. Will likely need a wind advisory for our western and SW counties for this afternoon.

Strong low level jet and SE flow will pump good moisture into the region with dewpoints pushing into the mid and upper 60's and PWS forecast to rise into the 1.3-1.6 range by Tuesday. As the core of the storm system ejects well off to our north a slow moving front will drop into SE TX and stall out Tuesday night. Parameters appear favorable for a round of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening across the northern and eastern portions of the area or generally along and NE of a line from Columbus to Sugar Land to Galveston. Capping layer extending NE off the higher terrain of NE Mexico should limit the SW extent of the convection although a few storms may fire as far SW as Victoria if the cap can be locally broken.

Frontal boundary should stall along the coast and then SW toward Rockport by Wednesday morning. Models show a potent short wave lifting out of Mexico and across SC and SE TX Wednesday as the front returns northward. Expect to see a good round of storms (possibly a clustering outbreak). Severe parameters look more favorable on Wednesday as instability increases. Will generally favor areas along and N of I-10 for the highest chances with lowest around Matagorda Bay where capping will be greatest.

Noisy SW flow aloft with multiple disturbance looks to continue through Friday with a warm, moist, and unstable air mass in place across the region. Will likely see several rounds of thunderstorms with a 12 hour or so break between rounds as air mass recharges between impulses.

Final event should come Friday night as a strong trough and cold front cross the region. Expect a round of storms and then clearing and drier for the weekend under cold air advection and WNW to NW flow aloft.

Severe Threat:

While the severe threat is not great this week there will be a slight chance each day starting Tuesday. Main threats will be large hail and wind damage. Wednesday may be the more active day with a returning warm front creating better lifting at the surface and helping to back low level winds north of the boundary producing more low level wind shear. Parameters get increasingly more favorable for severe weather each day this week as surface instability grows. Will need to keep a close eye on Wednesday and beyond given at least the potential for higher instability to interact with surface boundaries creating a better tornado threat.

Note: SPC Day outlook has our northern and eastern counties outlooked and DAY 3 has at least the northern 1/3rd of the area outlooked. Feel the DAY 3 (Wed) threat will likely extend more southward than what is currently shown.

Rainfall:

Another good shot at wetting rains to help relieve the drought stresses. Should see widespread 1-2 inches by the end of the week. This pattern favors more convective rainfall than the more cold/stable rains a week ago...so isolated totals will be higher and likely less widespread. A few locations may see up to 4-6 inches by Saturday. The bad news is that the exceptional drought areas along and west of a CLL to VCT line look to see the least amount of rainfall....hopefully meso scale boundaries can play a favorable role in generating some rainfall across our western and southwestern counties.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2151 Postby jasons2k » Tue Mar 24, 2009 3:02 pm

Storms are already firing in the area - hopefully we will get another dose of healthy rains over the next few days :-)
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2152 Postby jasons2k » Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:18 am

Virtually every forecaster missed the front on this one. Even the 10PM weathercasters said 'front will pull-up stationary north of Houston and not push thru until Friday'.

It was supposed to pull-up stationary well north of the Houston metro area and overnight it has pushed thru. It is still moving south now (you can see it on Nexrad pushing south across Galveston Bay). Crazy. If it comes back as a warm front could be an interesting day.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2153 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:03 am

jasons wrote:Virtually every forecaster missed the front on this one. Even the 10PM weathercasters said 'front will pull-up stationary nirth of Houston and not push thru until Friday'.

It was supposed to pull-up stationary well north of the Houston metro area and overnight it has pushed thru. It is still moving south now (you can see it on Nexrad pushing south across Galveston Bay). Crazy. If it comes back as a warm front could be an interesting day.


Models have been rather unpredictable as of late. It's actually a bit chilly out this morning. Keeping an eye out W though as a strong short wave looks to move across the area later today. SPC Update mentions an upgrade to Moderate may be possible, but that's a different Topic...

Image
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2154 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:53 am

HGX Morning Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
930 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

.UPDATE...
SFC FRONT HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. THE FRONT HAS REACHED ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT AND
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING. THE LATEST GFS INDICATES
THAT THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LATE TODAY...THEN ACTUALLY PUSH BACK SOUTH A BIT THIS EVENING.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND THIS LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL SEE A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT
THIS AFTN ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH 60S TO THE NORTH OF IT AND LOW 80S
TO THE SOUTH OF IT. AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...HOWEVER 12Z CRP SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CAP
IN PLACE. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING ON POPS AND
LATEST THINKING ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
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#2155 Postby southerngale » Wed Mar 25, 2009 10:08 am

Yeah, quite chilly out this morning... wasn't expecting that. Feels great, though.

srainhoutx... possible moderate for us or north of here?
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Re:

#2156 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 25, 2009 10:30 am

southerngale wrote:Yeah, quite chilly out this morning... wasn't expecting that. Feels great, though.

srainhoutx... possible moderate for us or north of here?

We'll see what SPC thinks in update a bit later. My thinking is anywhere along and S of where the retreating cool front lies will have the greatest concern re: any severe weather. One of our severe weather members on the "Local Forum" launched a sounding balloon ("unofficial"/ class related) from UH Campus this morning and data shows that atmosphere is "not quite as capped as CRP" 12Z sounding data. Good day to monitor the situation as it appears rather "interesting" later in the day for SE TX/SW LA.

Latest from SPC Slight Risk remains...snipet for our area ...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX
EWD TO MS/AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOOSE PHASING
OF AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM WITH A SUBTROPICAL SPEED
MAX EJECTING EWD FROM NRN MEXICO TO CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT JUST S OF I-10 IN TX/LA WILL STALL AND BEGIN
TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY. A WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
E TX...IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING SPEED MAXIMA AND PERHAPS FEEDBACK
FROM WIDESPREAD/INTENSE CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

...TX/LA TODAY INTO MS/AL TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S TX INTO SRN
LA...AND A PLUME OF 7-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER S AND W TX.
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR N OF THE SURFACE FRONT TODAY
OVER CENTRAL/E TX...WHERE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD ALONG AND N OF THE
FRONT. THE ELEVATED STORMS N OF THE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND EVEN SOME DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN RELATIVELY
LARGE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SHALLOW/COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER S
ALONG THE FRONT...SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEED
OF 68-70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE S...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS WILL SUPPORT
MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG FROM S CENTRAL INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON.


SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS DEPICT A RELATIVELY QUICK NWD RETREAT OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WHILE CLOUD COVER AND LATER DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE WAVE GIVEN
ROUGHLY 30 KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. STILL...THE BOUNDARY LOCATION...ALONG WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONSE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...CONTRIBUTE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EXPECTED CORRIDOR OF
GREATER SEVERE STORM/TORNADO THREAT. THE AREA FROM E TX ACROSS
LA/MS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
TORNADO THREAT IN LATER UPDATES...THOUGH A SLIGHT RISK STILL APPEARS
APPROPRIATE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS
.


..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/25/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2157 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 25, 2009 3:42 pm

HGX thoughts this afternoon concerning Severe Weather and the "Colder Weather/Frost or Light Freeze Potential" that will follow this weekend...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SPC HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #63 FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 02Z. SFC FRONT HAS RETREATED NORTH TO NEAR A LA
GRANGE...IAH...BEAUMONT LINE WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR QUICKLY
ERODING. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NORTH THIS AFTN AND WILL
PROBABLY STALL AGAIN EARLY EVENING OVER OUR NRN ZONES. LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SE TX GOES INTO LEFT FRONT QUAD OF
UPPER JET. TSRA NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL
COUNTRY REGION WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING.
MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH CAPPING LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SEVERE FOR WHOLE AREA IN
HWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST NORTH OF I-10.
TSRA SHOULD END
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. ONGOING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY AND PUSH IT BACK TO
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. CWA WILL SEE ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE
ACTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH SE TX THU AFTN. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
DIFFLUENT AS SE TX REMAINS IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 100 KT
UPPER JET. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH PWS IN THE 1.4-1.6
INCH RANGE. MID LEVELS WILL COOL FURTHER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
SETTING UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
WEAK CAPPING THURSDAY...LIS OF -7 TO -10...CAPES >2500 J/KG...AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 70S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN. THURSDAY SEEMS MORE CLEAR CUT THAN TODAY...A WEAKER
CAP...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND MORE INSTABILITY.
THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT.

STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT. FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. SFC DRYLINE
WILL PUSH INTO SE TX FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE DEEP MOISTURE (1.5
INCH PWS) WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE FRIDAY...
BUT SE TX WILL LIKELY BE IN THE INITIATION ZONE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE WEST ON THE LOW SIDE (20S/30S). STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT
THE AREA BY SUNSET. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NRN ZONES LATE FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. SNOW COVER WILL BE PRESENT TO OUR
NORTH AND MODELS FORECAST IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT. HAVE FURTHER LOWERED TEMPS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT IS ENTIRELY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT THE NE
ZONES WILL SEE PATCHY FROST OR MAYBE EVEN A LIGHT FREEZE SAT
NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON
NIGHT...BUT KEPT FCST DRY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2158 Postby jasons2k » Wed Mar 25, 2009 4:39 pm

From Jeff Lindner a few minutes ago:

SPC has issued Tornado Watch # 63 until 700pm for the northern 1/3rd of SE TX.

Frontal boundary is retreating northward...currently extends from Bellville to IAH to Beaumont. Short wave is forcing severe/tornadic supercells across C TX and the Hill Country along the returning warm front. Expect to see things start to ramp up in the next 2-3 hours over the northern 1/2 of SE TX as short wave approaches.

Supercell over San Saba County TX is clearly showing tremendous low level rotation on 88D out of Granger and is likely producing a large tornado. This cell is tracking ESE just north of the surface boundary and indicates parameters along this boundary are very favorable for mesocyclone formation and tornadoes...hence the issuance of the tornado watch.

S of I-10 expect capping to hold strong although within the last hour severe storms have fired off the higher terrain of NE Mexico between Del Rio and Laredo...will need to keep a close eye on these and see how/if they hold together as they are more south and may have a bigger impact on a larger part of our area overnight. Per latest MCD out of SPC they may extend WW 63 southward and past 02Z given radar trends in Mexico out of Del Rio.

Thursday:

Latest guidance is showing Thursday is shaping up to be a very active severe weather event across the area. Newest runs show low level boundary still lingering over SE TX on Thursday as current activity pushes the boundary back southward due to rain cooling effects. Air mass Thursday afternoon becomes extremely unstable with LI's tanking to -7 to -10 and CAPES of up to 3000-4000. Next short wave brings better mid level cooling with a breakable cap with only mid 70 degree surface temps. We can expect some fairly vigorous development once the cap is broken with storms going quickly severe. Main threats will be wind damage and very large hail...possible baseball size. Tornado threat will need assessment early Thursday as to where the low level boundary pulls up overnight tonight. SPC may upgrade to a moderate risk for parts of SE TX for Thursday.
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#2159 Postby jasons2k » Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:16 pm

BTW - before I forget - I had .16" yesterday
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like

#2160 Postby jasons2k » Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:17 pm

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0065.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 65
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PALACIOS TEXAS TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 63...WW 64...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PUSH SEWD INTO SOUTHEASTERN TX THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGER CORES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
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