Major Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak May 10 and 11th

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Major Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak May 10 and 11th

#221 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat May 10, 2008 7:00 pm

Further South than I expected, and no warning, but a cell has popped just West of Austin in Travis County.



Maybe this means the cap will break in McLennan county...
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#222 Postby HarlequinBoy » Sat May 10, 2008 7:00 pm

Our sirens are going off...
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Short info

#223 Postby Bunkertor » Sat May 10, 2008 7:01 pm

Image
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#224 Postby RL3AO » Sat May 10, 2008 7:03 pm

Tornado probs of >95% and 80%! :eek:
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#225 Postby HarlequinBoy » Sat May 10, 2008 7:04 pm

Yep, tornado warning..

* AT 658 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WHEATLEY...OR NEAR BRINKLEY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GARRET GROVE...NEW SALEM...MORO...PALESTINE...HAYNES...FORREST
CITY...MARIANNA...MADISON...WIDENER...BRICKEYS...NEW HOME...
HUGHES...SIMSBORO...TUNICA...NORTH TUNICA AND EDMONDSON.
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#226 Postby HarlequinBoy » Sat May 10, 2008 7:08 pm

Where is the greatest tornado threat going to be in this warning? It's a rather large area..
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#227 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sat May 10, 2008 7:09 pm

Wierd MD867 has us back under the gun and as far west as I35 again
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#228 Postby KWT » Sat May 10, 2008 7:09 pm

Woah a 95% tornado prob, thats really severe got to a really big chance for a tornado then.
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#229 Postby HarlequinBoy » Sat May 10, 2008 7:09 pm

They're sounding the sirens a long time ahead this time...
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#230 Postby KWT » Sat May 10, 2008 7:10 pm

From what I've just heard theres a tornado on the ground now from that cleaveland cell that I was talking about earlier.
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#231 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 10, 2008 7:13 pm

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GADSDEN
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW
295...WW 297...WW 298...WW 299...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM INVOF A WARM FRONT
BISECTING NRN AL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD INTO SRN MIDDLE
TN WITH TIME THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...SUPERCELL TSTMS UPSTREAM
CROSSING THE MS RVR WILL MOVE ESEWD AND BEGIN MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN
AND NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF AL LATER THIS EVENING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS MODEST ATTM...IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES SEWD AND THE SLY LLJ
INTENSIFIES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...RACY/EVANS


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GADSDEN
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW
295...WW 297...WW 298...WW 299...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM INVOF A WARM FRONT
BISECTING NRN AL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD INTO SRN MIDDLE
TN WITH TIME THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...SUPERCELL TSTMS UPSTREAM
CROSSING THE MS RVR WILL MOVE ESEWD AND BEGIN MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN
AND NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF AL LATER THIS EVENING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS MODEST ATTM...IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES SEWD AND THE SLY LLJ
INTENSIFIES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...RACY/EVANS


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 110005
WOU0

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

TORNADO WATCH 300 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC009-015-019-027-029-033-043-049-055-057-059-071-073-075-077-
079-083-089-093-095-103-107-111-115-117-121-125-127-133-
110700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0300.080511T0005Z-080511T0700Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLAY CLEBURNE COLBERT
CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MORGAN
PICKENS RANDOLPH SHELBY
ST. CLAIR TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA
WALKER WINSTON


TNC003-031-051-055-061-081-099-101-103-117-119-127-135-181-
110700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0300.080511T0005Z-080511T0700Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD COFFEE FRANKLIN
GILES GRUNDY HICKMAN
LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN
MARSHALL MAURY MOORE
PERRY WAYNE


ATTN...WFO...BMX...OHX...HUN...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW0
WW 300 TORNADO AL TN 110005Z - 110700Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35WNW MSL/MUSCLE SHOALS AL/ - 40ENE GAD/GADSDEN AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /38WNW MSL - 48SSW GQO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

LAT...LON 36168819 35418543 32958543 33708819

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.


Watch 300 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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#232 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 10, 2008 7:14 pm

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
PADUCAH KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 294...WW 295...WW
297...WW 298...WW 299...

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEYS TONIGHT NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD SUPPORT
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...EVANS
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#233 Postby KWT » Sat May 10, 2008 7:15 pm

Wow lots of warnings coming out now that large risk zone seems justified now.

Also a few cells developing in Texas as well, plenty of instablity present to use if storms do break through the cap.
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#234 Postby KWT » Sat May 10, 2008 7:16 pm

Also:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
711 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 708 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROGERS...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THIS IS A
DANGEROUS STORM...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT ANY TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WAR EAGLE...
CLIFTY...EUREKA SPRINGS...FORUM...BERRYVILLE...RUDD...RULE...GREEN
FOREST...OSAGE AND CARROLLTON.
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#235 Postby HarlequinBoy » Sat May 10, 2008 7:19 pm

They're showing deep rotation in the storm that has warned my area.. but it's still a long ways away.
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#236 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 10, 2008 7:19 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL GA...SRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294...

VALID 110014Z - 110215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 294 CONTINUES.

CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA INTO SRN SC. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...AND A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 01Z.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL GA.
RECENT VWP DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES /PER REGIONAL VWPS/ WITH STRAIGHT/LONG HODOGRAPHS. AS A
RESULT...SPLITTING SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS OVER CENTRAL GA. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE/S AROUND 2000 J/KG. FURTHER
WEST...ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN AL ARE EXPECTED TO
BEING AFFECTING FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 294 AROUND EXPIRATION TIME
/01Z/ WITH A REPLACEMENT WW POSSIBLY NEEDED FOR CENTRAL/NRN GA
BEFORE THEN. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITHIN THE SC
PORTION OF WW 294...A NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT.

..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2008


ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

33688250 34128522 32038498 31788296 31418128 32427989
33057904 33578119
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#237 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 10, 2008 7:20 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 297...

VALID 110016Z - 110215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 297 CONTINUES.

ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WW 297
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ISOLATED SVR TSTM OVER TRAVIS COUNTY WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF WW 297...BUT LIMITED SVR THREAT AREA OUTSIDE OF WW
297 SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH.

VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDED OVER WW 297...WITH A MODIFIED 00Z FWD
SOUNDING INDICATING OVER 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. ISOLATED SUPERCELL
JUST EAST OF THE DFW METRO AREA HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN IT/S
INTENSITY. BUT THIS TSTM STILL MAY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT HR
BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DEVELOPS AS IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER
CINH AND MOVES INTO WW 295 ACROSS NERN TX. FURTHER
SOUTH...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM THE DFW METRO AREA SWD ALONG I-35. ONE LONE SUPERCELL
OUTSIDE OF WW 297 WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AUSTIN AREA. GIVEN IT/S
ISOLATED NATURE ANOTHER WW SOUTH OF WW 297 IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
HOWEVER...THIS TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS. GRADUALLY INCREASING CINH SHOULD LIMIT SVR THREAT BEYOND
02Z...ALTHOUGH LOCAL WW EXTENSION MAYBE NEEDED FOR 1-2 HRS FOR
PORTIONS OF WW 297.

..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2008


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

30099848 33209723 33459607 32889554 31919571 30949635
30179702 29869763
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#238 Postby HarlequinBoy » Sat May 10, 2008 7:23 pm

0710 PM TORNADO 1 NE PURDY 36.83N 93.91W
05/10/2008 BARRY MO AMATEUR RADIO

DAMAGE TO 4 TRAILER HOMES...A CHURCH...HOMES...AND
SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS IN THE PURDY AREA.
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#239 Postby HarlequinBoy » Sat May 10, 2008 7:24 pm

0615 PM TORNADO YANUSH 34.71N 95.31W
05/10/2008 LATIMER OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

ONE STRUCTURE DESTROYED
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#240 Postby Bunkertor » Sat May 10, 2008 7:32 pm

Someone noticed a presser on this event ?
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