2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[StormingB81]

At least the first half of April 2012 appears to be nowhere near what April 2011 was. Next chance for an outbreak looks to be late next week - a Friday the 13th outbreak?

It is Sprint Cup weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. They're on a roll with tornado warnings there lately...

Yes this weekend the boys roll into Texas...With all the bad luck with weather this year so far it wint suprise me!

[cycloneye]

Day 4-8 Outlook issued on 4/9/12

They continue to forecast a big event for the weekend.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE...WHICH
EXPECTED TO START ON D3/WED...WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SWRN STATES THROUGH OK AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AS A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING D4/THU
THROUGH D6/SAT. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS WILL RESULT IN RICH MOISTURE RETURN INTO
OK/KS ON D4/D5 AND THEN EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY ON D6. THIS COMBINED WITH ENEWD EXTENSION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THROUGH D6. SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS SUCH THAT
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
D4...D5...AND D6. THE STRONGEST BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON D6/SAT
WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ALSO EXPANDING SWD SOME INTO N
TX AND NEWD INTO SWRN IA.

BEYOND D6...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY
ADDITIONAL REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS.

..PETERS.. 04/09/2012

[cycloneye]

Updated 2012 Stats

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mary.html#

All preliminary reports of Hail,Wind and Tornadoes:



All preliminary reports of Tornadoes:



How the 2012 season is doing in terms of activity:



The stats show a preliminary number of 414 Tornadoes:

Code: Select all

Day Total Torn Hail Wind
Jan 2012 554 97 92 365
Feb 2012 714 63 188 463
Mar 2012 1965 225 1144 596
Apr 2012 533 29 269 235

TOTAL 3766 414 1693 1659



[EF-5bigj]

So it looks like tornado alley will get the brunt of this weather then this april isn't the same as last year for sure.

[cycloneye]

So it looks like tornado alley will get the brunt of this weather then this april isn't the same as last year for sure.

2011 was more active than what 2012 has been so far in general,but the most active period is now starting.

[EF-5bigj]

Im noticing the elements for sever this year have moved more into the plains and southern plains. Last year tornadoes happend all over the deep south this year it doesn't look the same pattern wise.

[cycloneye]

Day 4-8 Outlook issued on 4/10/12

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS CA/NV ON
D4/FRI INTO THE SWRN STATES/NRN MEXICO DURING D5/SAT AND D6/SUN
RESULTING IN DEEPENING OF THE WRN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL
SUSTAIN A SWLY FLOW REGIME EXTENDING FROM NM THROUGH OK/KS TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING FRI-SUN. ON D4...THE GFS DIFFERS WITH THE
ECMWF INDICATING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DESPITE THIS
DIFFERENCE...EACH MODEL CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR WARM SECTOR
MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION EXTENDING NWD ACROSS OK AND CENTRAL/ERN KS ON
D4 AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EWD AND EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE ON D5.

THE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS REMAIN SIMILAR FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR FRI APR 13 AND SAT APR 14. SWLY MIDLEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON D4 TO 50-70 KT WITH A FURTHER
INCREASE ON D5 AS A 70-90 KT JET MOVES FROM THE BASE OF THE WRN
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH A STRONG SLY LLJ MAINTAINING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE OUTLOOK AREAS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALSO PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

BEYOND D5...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BECOME PROGRESSIVE SHIFTING EWD...BUT MODELS TEND TO DIFFER IN THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON D6/SUN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MAY TEND TO LIMIT A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 04/10/2012

[Cyclenall]

If wording gets stronger, a new thread might be warranted. However, I don't like creating threads until the threat is significant and well established.

It does look like a significant Southern Plains outbreak on Thursday is possible. But it is fairly early in the season for that area, and things are more likely to go wrong on April 12 than on May 12, since it can be harder for the atmosphere to reload if early activity takes place.

A new thread is warranted right now, I will create it later today if one hasn't been made. This event looks to be a major severe weather outbreak sequence that will last into next week. All indications are this will be a very threatening system.

I was surprised to see Monday having a MOD risk for a brief time. It wasn't even on my radar (pun intended ).

[cycloneye]

Day 4-8 Outlook issued on 4/11/12

Pretty strong wording for Saturday.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED APR 11 2012

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE GFS/ECMWF EACH MAINTAIN A TROUGH IN THE WEST WITH SWLY FLOW
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN D3/FRI ACROSS OK/KS TO MO/IA...WHILE
THE STRONGEST FLOW ON D5/SUN GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM W TX INTO KS.
THE GFS CLOSES A LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON D4 SHIFTING
IT ENEWD INTO CO/NM ON D5/SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE WRN TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE OVERALL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR IS SIMILAR FOR D4 WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS WRN KS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MREF. GIVEN THESE SIMILARITIES FOR D4 WITH EACH
MODEL INDICATING STRONG VERTICALLY VEERING WIND FIELDS...A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SAT APR 14 FROM N
TX THROUGH MUCH OF OK...CENTRAL/ERN KS INTO NWRN MO/SWRN IA/SERN
NEB. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND D5 PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY ADDITIONAL
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS AS THE WRN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR EACH DAY AS EXTENSIVE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF TX THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY TO OH
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2012

[EF-5bigj]

That isn't looking very good

[Ntxw]

Jet streak and upper level winds incoming from the Pacific is looking quite impressive. Better watch out for long track destructive tornadoes this weekend and a heavy rain threat further south/east. Areas from central Texas up to Iowa needs to get prepared. To pin down which areas has best potential for violent tornadoes I think we should follow a warm front feature this week that will move ahead of the western trough, shouldn't be hard to see as cooler air in place will retreat imo.

[EF-5bigj]

So more or less the south will get rain its cold here right now and it looks to be cool into the weekend. However texas and OK and Iowa like you said need to get ready by long tracked you mean EF-4 and EF-5 strength tornadoes

[cycloneye]

A neat graphic on how 2012 is doing in terms of the trends for activity.

[somethingfunny]

Hail near Dumas, TX:

[Fyzn94]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
506 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
EASTERN DENVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 530 PM MDT

* AT 505 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR 38TH AND TOWER
ROAD...ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF AURORA...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DENVER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BUCKLEY
AFB...BARR LAKE...WESTERN DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
NORTHEASTERN DENVER...NORTHEASTERN COMMERCE CITY AND NORTHWESTERN
AURORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3996 10481 3996 10465 3967 10474 3968 10493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 199DEG 18KT 3982 10479

$$

[cycloneye]

somethingfunny,here is video of the big hailstorm near Amarillo,Texas.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... r8AvdkKHO0

[cycloneye]

Dr Greg Forbes highlighted the cities that may be on the gun for Saturday's big severe weather event.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[Cyclenall]

So more or less the south will get rain its cold here right now and it looks to be cool into the weekend. However texas and OK and Iowa like you said need to get ready by long tracked you mean EF-4 and EF-5 strength tornadoes

Like you said, to be blunt we will likely see EF4-EF5 tornadoes within days.

A neat graphic on how 2012 is doing in terms of the trends for activity.

That's what I needed to see. This has always bothered me, is the record activity on that graph (red line) 2004 or 2005 or a whole different year? Is it not 2011? We are flirting with the maximum.

Dr Greg Forbes highlighted the cities that may be on the gun for Saturday's big severe weather event.

I lol'd at "isolated tornadoes". We've been getting that everyday now leading up to this.

[EF-5bigj]

Im glad it won't be down my direction but I hope the people in those area's get ready everyone is saying violent and long tracked tornadoes. So tornado alley gets its name for a reason it seems like the weather pattern from last year moved north/east along with the jet that will be coming into play soon.

[Extratropical94]

That's what I needed to see. This has always bothered me, is the record activity on that graph (red line) 2004 or 2005 or a whole different year? Is it not 2011? We are flirting with the maximum.

That's exactly the point I've been thinking about. When looking at the storm report graph, we're hundreds of tornadoes away from the maximum (2008 I think). And last year, during the two months of April and May, the inflation adjusted graph of 2011 was notably higher than the 'maximum' and they haven't adjusted it since then.