Texas Fall 2020

[Brent]

not thrilled with the near 90 this weekend

but signs of another big front mid week next week

[South Texas Storms]

Ended up getting about 8 inches here from Beta. Not too shabby. The rain machine really looks to shut down for the next few weeks (possibly months with La Nina coming on)...

[HockeyTx82]

I'm going camping next Fri-Sun out by Ben Wheeler. Hoping it's nice and cool and not rainy.

[DonWrk]

Well, rain from Beta was pretty poor up this far in north Texas. Sitting good now but worried how long till we await the next rain maker.

[Portastorm]

Rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Beta averaged between 1/2" to 1 1/2" here in Travis County. Interesting to note that it is the most rain we have received from a tropical system from the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

[Cpv17]

I ended up with 9.3” from Beta. Very beneficial rainmaker for us here. We needed it pretty bad. Unfortunately, I don’t see anymore rain coming for a while. Drought or flood. Pick your poison.

[SoupBone]

Where's our next cold front?

[gpsnowman]

Where's our next cold front?

Middle of next week with some 50's-70's potentially. Before that some early fall heat to get through. Not a heatwave but warmer than it has been.

[Brent]

Dallas in the 40s at the end of the Euro but yes it is pretty dry

On the flip side at least temps are going the right way instead of the recent September/October torches

[Ralph's Weather]

I am hoping that we get a strong extra tropical Gulf of Alaska storm out of TS Dolphin which would send a strong front down here around 10/5. Not sure Dolphin is strong enough to do it though. We are entering prime time for Pacific recurves triggering Plains cold snaps over the next 2 months.

[dhweather]

not thrilled with the near 90 this weekend

but signs of another big front mid week next week

I'll take the 90's. We've had 3" of rain this month, no complaining here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Next week looks beautiful for us. Lets see if this pattern can hold through winter!

[Brent]

not thrilled with the near 90 this weekend

but signs of another big front mid week next week

I'll take the 90's. We've had 3" of rain this month, no complaining here.

true can't complain too much up here

and if anything the warmth isn't even that bad, now there's a possible front Sunday Night(may be some storms???) which would make Monday much cooler

and beyond that looks amazing

from the FWD AFD

There has been some significant change in the forecast for late
this weekend into early next week. Almost the entire suite of 00z
guidance arrived with a much more potent upstream shortwave
Sunday night into Monday. This feature is progged to take a more
southerly trajectory through the Central Plains rather than the
southeastward trajectory advertised by previous guidance. Before,
it appeared all large scale lift would remain well north and east
of the CWA, but new operational model runs as well as about 50%
of ensemble members seem to support this new southwestward
solution. For us, this means a much greater potential to see a
strong cold frontal passage sometime late Sunday night into
Monday which would likely be accompanied by a fast-moving line of
showers and thunderstorms. Since this is the first batch of
guidance to latch onto this scenario, we`ll only introduce some
small PoPs during this time period to avoid excessive flip-flop of
the forecast. However, if new data continues to trend in this
direction, we`ll need significantly higher storm chances in
subsequent forecasts.

[Ralph's Weather]

I haven't seen 75 degrees since Sunday. Maybe we get there tomorrow afternoon.

[bubba hotep]

not thrilled with the near 90 this weekend

but signs of another big front mid week next week

I'll take the 90's. We've had 3" of rain this month, no complaining here.

true can't complain too much up here

and if anything the warmth isn't even that bad, now there's a possible front Sunday Night(may be some storms???) which would make Monday much cooler

and beyond that looks amazing

from the FWD AFD

There has been some significant change in the forecast for late
this weekend into early next week. Almost the entire suite of 00z
guidance arrived with a much more potent upstream shortwave
Sunday night into Monday. This feature is progged to take a more
southerly trajectory through the Central Plains rather than the
southeastward trajectory advertised by previous guidance. Before,
it appeared all large scale lift would remain well north and east
of the CWA, but new operational model runs as well as about 50%
of ensemble members seem to support this new southwestward
solution. For us, this means a much greater potential to see a
strong cold frontal passage sometime late Sunday night into
Monday which would likely be accompanied by a fast-moving line of
showers and thunderstorms. Since this is the first batch of
guidance to latch onto this scenario, we`ll only introduce some
small PoPs during this time period to avoid excessive flip-flop of
the forecast. However, if new data continues to trend in this
direction, we`ll need significantly higher storm chances in
subsequent forecasts.

Pretty crazy trend towards a much more amplified pattern that allows for storms to get back into Texas for this weekend. Hopefully, this is trend all winter!

[bubba hotep]

Ended up getting about 8 inches here from Beta. Not too shabby. The rain machine really looks to shut down for the next few weeks (possibly months with La Nina coming on)...

I'm hanging my hat on the atmospheric background state being offset from a typical la nina. Maybe over time the atmospheric background state shifts to match a more traditional la nina pattern but the overall warmth across the Pacific might prevent that from happening.

[aggiecutter]

It has been a rainy year in Texarkana. 25.51" above normal rainfall since January 1st:

THE TEXARKANA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 24 2020...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1896 TO 2020


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 72 259 PM 101 1939 84 -12 91
MINIMUM 62 541 AM 41 1989 60 2 72
AVERAGE 67 72 -5 82

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 3.89 2005 0.12 -0.12 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 5.62 2.71 2.91 0.92
SINCE DEC 1 61.04 39.18 21.86 49.67
SINCE JAN 1 59.64 34.13 25.51 42.53

[Ralph's Weather]

A cold north Pacific bodes well for cold in Texas (-EPO/WPO). Cold season moisture is PNA driven, that is harder to predict at longer ranges. For next week I expect a solid -EPO, but doubting a huge EPO dive as I don't see Dolphin as strong enough nor quite positioned right for a big Alaskan ridge to poke up into the Arctic. Some 40s with highs in the 60s are possible though down here.

[Brent]

Pretty crazy trend towards a much more amplified pattern that allows for storms to get back into Texas for this weekend. Hopefully, this is trend all winter!

https://i.ibb.co/nLnP84L/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-namer-fh96-trend.gif

Trying not to get optimistic about winter with the La Nina(then again it's not like the El Nino did anything either...) but it is interesting to see that and the fact were way cooler than last year at this time

May not mean anything but..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pretty crazy trend towards a much more amplified pattern that allows for storms to get back into Texas for this weekend. Hopefully, this is trend all winter!

https://i.ibb.co/nLnP84L/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-namer-fh96-trend.gif

Trying not to get optimistic about winter with the La Nina(then again it's not like the El Nino did anything either...) but it is interesting to see that and the fact were way cooler than last year at this time

May not mean anything but..

We've had some great El nino winters, but lately its been the la nina winters that provide all the fun! Yeah that trend reversal was beautiful. The warm pool near alaska and a cool 1+2 should drive the troughs down into Texas. We at least need the cold air in place, then just a bit more luck for some fun.