Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[ElectricStorm]

+246 hours 18z GEFS

(LOOK AT MEMBER #6! )

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_scpens_246.png

Haha that's like that crazy 700mb HWRF run for Mangkhut

[ElectricStorm]

Been taking a look at the currently running 0z GFS run and I've noticed a few things:
First, severe weather on Wed 3/10 is still in the cards, even though it doesn't look to have as much potential as the next day (at least right now, but we are getting closer).
Dews for Wed evening:


Not very impressive moisture for Wed, which is probably why SPC has it as a "potential too low" right now. Cape for Wed is a little more on this run then previous runs, but still not very impressive. Keep in mind that N OK and S KS would likely be the target for any potential severe weather for Wed.


Sounding near the OK/KS border. Pretty dry


Thursday 3/11 still has my attention for perhaps a slightly better shot at severe weather, although moisture and cape aren't much better than they are for Wed.


Central OK

Probably wouldn't be all that much of a tornado threat, more likely to be a damaging squall line.

Friday 3/12 has better moisture than Wed-Thurs. Cape looks about the same as Thurs. Probably would again be more of a damaging wind threat.



This is the point in the run where I start getting concerned about a potential flooding event in N OK, S KS, SW MO. Hopefully we won't have much of that though.

Dryline finally moves through on Sat 3/13, but there's hardly any cape on this run.



However I did find this sounding for my area in NE OK. I guess anything is possible at this point, but I would think anything happening on Sat has to depend on what happens on Thurs-Fri.

Flooding could very well be a big issue at this point in the run, if it were to verify.

Also, the last few runs have shown another system coming through on the 16-17. Some previous runs have shown a potential snow event, but this run went the complete opposite direction and has Tues 3/16 becoming a significant severe weather/tornado event for the Plains. It's still over a week out so I won't post any specifics on that at this point.

[TheProfessor]

The 12z NAM isn't nearly as dry in the low levels as the 12z GFS for parts of Kansas. LCLs certainly aren't bad for the Plains and with all other parameters in place, should allow for some Supercells to form if the NAM were to verify.

[Iceresistance]

Mean SCP on 18z GEFS

[Iceresistance]

Marginal risk in Far Northern Oklahoma, Eastern Kansas, NW Missouri, & extreme SE Nebraska, they are playing it safe for now . . .

[Iceresistance]

Multi-Day Severe Weather Outbreak is possible Friday-Sunday across the Southern Plains. (Day 5 to Day 7)

Day 5


Day 6


Day 7

[Brandon8181]

That is exciting. Getting everything ready for a possible Friday/Saturday/Sunday chase day.

[InfernoFlameCat]

That is exciting. Getting everything ready for a possible Friday/Saturday/Sunday chase day.

Keep us posted and show us any good tornado pics. I see the risk they are giving so far out. Hope you get some good ones.

[AnnularCane]

Isn't that around when Brent will be moving to Tulsa? I may have to confirm.

[ElectricStorm]

Ok so now this is the real deal... You don't see Day 7 highlighted much... Especially in early-mid March these days...

[Iceresistance]

Ok so now this is the real deal... You don't see Day 7 highlighted much... Especially in early-mid March these days...

In May 2019, ALL 8 days on the SPC were highlighted for severe weather, never happened before in the SPC's history . . .

[Iceresistance]

Note that the highest area of the SCP on Wednesday in NW Oklahoma & Central Oklahoma is capped . . .

[ElectricStorm]

Ok so now this is the real deal... You don't see Day 7 highlighted much... Especially in early-mid March these days...

In May 2019, ALL 8 days on the SPC were highlighted for severe weather, never happened before in the SPC's history . . .

Yep. Definitely remember that. Also remember that the the day after those that was never highlighted until a marginal on day 2 was the biggest event by far for me. Ended up becoming a surprise moderate. It was way more intense for me than 5/20

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is going crazy with the Supercell Composite in NW Oklahoma, but soundings show that the area is capped . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

12z GFS is going crazy with the Supercell Composite in NW Oklahoma, but soundings show that the area is capped . . .


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/scp.us_scfc8fc06b5c7a9159.png

That is why they are going crazy because a cap lets atmospheric instability build up so when the cap releases you have this massive amount of instability.
Also look at those dew points; they are insane!

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is going crazy with the Supercell Composite in NW Oklahoma, but soundings show that the area is capped . . .


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/scp.us_scfc8fc06b5c7a9159.png

That is why they are going crazy because a cap lets atmospheric instability build up so when the cap releases you have this massive amount of instability.
Also look at those dew points; they are insane!

And when the cap breaks . . .

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Max SCP, classic Dryline storm setup at +210 hours . . .

[Iceresistance]

3.9.2021 0z NAM sounding near Alva, OK at +51 hours



Also one over OKC at +57 hours . . .

[Brandon8181]

I'm looking for a website that shows the RAP / future radar composite that is kind of ZOOMED in or has the ability to zoom in so you can get a better idea of where predicted storm development is rather than looking at a LARGE MAP and trying to figure out the estimated location... if that makes sense...

[ElectricStorm]

We'll probably be dealing with morning convection issues on both Friday and Saturday which should limit the severe potential overall. Add in sub-par moisture and I don't think tornadoes will be a big issue with this system overall. The squall line can still get strong though regardless of any morning convection and of course that would a mean significant wind/hail event could be possible. As well as the potential for QLCS tornadoes. And of course it's still 5 days out, so it could still change either way, but I'm not worried about a tornado threat right now for Fri-Sat. Wednesday is still a wild card as there could be some supercells that could produce.