SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

[Extremeweatherguy]

Forecast looks nice for this weekend. The NWS is forecasting mid 80s for highs, lower 60s for lows with sunny skies and low dewpoints! Finally we will be back to normal temp. wise!

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I'm a little bummed about this weekend's new outlook. I was counting on another weekend of summer but it looks like it may be too cold for any swimming.

[JenBayles]

Yeah, I'm a little bummed about this weekend's new outlook. I was counting on another weekend of summer but it looks like it may be too cold for any swimming.

That's why we had a heater installed with ours. It really does extend the season by a good six weeks either way. Of course, natural gas was really cheap when we had it installed, so we really have to think before we turn it on any more.

[Yankeegirl]

well today looks like its to be the last of the hot summer days. Over the next few days the temps go down... I cant wait, though i wish it was more of a wet front...but a front is a front, ill take it!

[Extremeweatherguy]

weekend temps. once again trended downward. Forecasted lows in the upper 50s now.

[Yankeegirl]

I am cool with the downward trend...

[PTrackerLA]

Quite surprised to notice how much temperatures are cooling this weekend with regards to where they are now. Upper 50's now forecasted Friday-Sunday nights with highs around 80 this weekend. Next week looks to get wet around mid-week and then we might see those much cooler temperatures (likely 40's for lows) if the current model solutions pan out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! 0Z GFS brings the 0C 850 line all the way down to almost Houston behind the strong front next week! If this occurred, and we had good radiational cooling, we could easily see our first frost!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml

Latest AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 AM CDT FRI OCT 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU SE TX TODAY BRINGING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. SHOULD BE A NICE WEEKEND WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND A MID/UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVERHEAD PROVIDING MSUNNY
SKIES. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RESUME ON TUES...ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE ZONAL TO SW FLOW
ALOFT. GFS DEPICTING SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW
TUE-THU PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAINTAINED THE
LOWER END POPS ALREADY IN THE FCST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL
TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. ECMWF & GFS
BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONG FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESTIMATE AT THIS POINT IS SOMETIME BETWEEN
THU AFTN AND FRI MORNING. THOUGH IT`S TOO FAR OUT FOR THIS MORNING`S
FCST PACKAGE...00Z MEX TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL CATEGORIES TOO HIGH
BEGINNING NEXT THU NIGHT SHOULD THE CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING/STRENGTH
PERSIST. SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE...

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z GFS also looks frigid:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml

If this verifies, the first frost could easily be on the way...may be even a freeze for areas to the north of Houston such as Conroe (since they always seem to be 5-10F colder).

[jasons2k]

Maybe the outskirts of DFW but not Houston

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I'm a little bummed about this weekend's new outlook. I was counting on another weekend of summer but it looks like it may be too cold for any swimming.

That's why we had a heater installed with ours. It really does extend the season by a good six weeks either way. Of course, natural gas was really cheap when we had it installed, so we really have to think before we turn it on any more.

Yeah, I'm actually looking into one of those solar covers. One of my friends tells me his was very effective. A heater would be ideal, but it's very expensive these days...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Maybe the outskirts of DFW but not Houston

I hit 36F (and so did Hooks airport) last October 25th, and IAH has hit the middle 30s as early as mid October before...so a frost is not impossible from such a strong system this early in the season. If the GFS is correct, this could easily wind up being one of the coldest mid October events ever for the area.

However, at this point I am only going to expect highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s from this until it becomes clear that it will be colder than that.

[double D]

The question is will the coldest of the airmass bypass us to the east or will it come straight down the southern plains into Texas? Hopefully parts of central and north Texas will also get some rain out this front.

[Johnny]

I remember back in October of 2000 when it didn't get above 48 for two days straight.

[double D]

It sure would be nice if we can enjoy Halloween this year without the hot and humid weather we had the last couple of years.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BACK DOOR INTO
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR HAD FILTERED
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLIER TODAY BUT WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ROSE TO NEAR 90 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS FINALLY DEVELOPED WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNS OF CONVECTION ON THE RADAR
OR SATELLITE IMAGES. WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO EAST TX
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL RADIATIONALLY COOL. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITH A 500MB LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
THE 500MB LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC EAST
COAST STATES. SUBSIDENCE TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED NOT TO MOVE EASTWARD
UNTIL MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
EVOLVED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE 500MB LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. KICKS OUT TO
THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY PRODUCING CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST TX AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO WEST AND CENTRAL TX. LATEST GFS SOLUTION
NOW BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX WEDNESDAY
WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EAST TX AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL MOVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AS A RESULT.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO EAST TX
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WED NIGHT
AND THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 32

[jasons2k]

Maybe the outskirts of DFW but not Houston

I hit 36F (and so did Hooks airport) last October 25th, and IAH has hit the middle 30s as early as mid October before...so a frost is not impossible from such a strong system this early in the season. If the GFS is correct, this could easily wind up being one of the coldest mid October events ever for the area.

However, at this point I am only going to expect highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s from this until it becomes clear that it will be colder than that.

I'm very much aware of the precedent (esp. at the END of the month), but don't expect this system to be nearly that cold.

[Extremeweatherguy]

WOW! The 00Z GFS is now rolling in, and at hr. 126 it is EXTREMELY cold! In fact, this is the coldest I have seen it yet. If this verifies...we could be looking at a historic mid October cold event.

hr. 126 (day 6): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

It even has winter precip falling in parts of the TX panhandle and northern TX!

Then, at hour 138, it has the 0C 850 line all the way south into parts of NE and even SE Texas:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

Forecast low for north Houston on Thursday night has been lowered to 44F! Brr..

[Johnny]

It seems every NWS office around Texas has latched onto this cold coming down. I'll tell ya one thing, I'm ready for the change.

What is JB now saying about this front for us here in Texas EWG?