SE Texas weather thread #2 - Flood watch issued!

#221 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:42 am

http://www.judgeeckels.org/news_release ... ntAcc_ID=7

Johnny · #222 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:46 am

I tried to make it into work in The Woodlands but it was a no go. Water is covering parts of 336, 2854 and along the feeder roads of I-45. I turned back around because cars were not moving. I just got back to the house and it is pitch black outside and we are under a tornado warning! So much for my reliable redneck weather service. LOL!!

#223 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:48 am

From Jeff:
Dangerous weather situation in progress

Flash Flood Event ongoing across SE TX.

Tornado outbreak in progress

Coastal flooding in progress

Multiple problems this morning from many angles. Flooding is occurring along the coast from the very high tides. Water is exceeding the beaches and flooding homes on Bolivar and in portions of Seabrook and Kemah. Tides are running 3.5-4.5 feet above normal which is at the local warning levels. Coastal Flood Warning is extended until 400pm.

Rainfall:
Flash Flood event is in progress across the area with 5-8 inches of rain falling over the area overnight. Numerous bayous are at bankfull or exceeding their capacity especially along Clear Creek. River flooding is also becoming likely with warnings now on the San Bernard River and rises expected on the San Jacinto River. Widespread flash flooding is in progress due to the excessive rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Short term flooding may recede, but re-development is expected through the afternoon. An additional 2-4 inches widespread with isolated 6-8 inch amounts will be possible.

Given the extremely moist air mass (PWS 2.5-2.6”) very heavy rainfall rates will continue. Training conditions will be high as rainfall forms into bands and trains SSW to NNE. Flash flooding is expected.

Watersheds:
White Oak: near bankfull
Halls: overbanks
Greens: near bankfull
Hunting: overbanks
Clear: overbanks
Cypress: near bankfull
Spring: rising toward bankfull
Luce: bankfull
Brays: lower end overbanks.
Clear Lake: flooding from tides and run-off in the lake is in progress
South Mayde Creek: 2-4 ft overbanks

Tornado Risk:
Tornado Watch in effect through 100pm. (JS: Just Extended to 6:00)

Strong shear ripping across the area with 50-60kts at 850mb. Numerous supercells are forming and moving rapidly NNE across the region. Multiple tornadoes have touched down this morning over the area. Warning are nearly pointless at this time due to storm motions of 40-45mph. Tornado threat will remain through the rest of the afternoon.

Wind:
Coastal winds are gusting to near 40mph this morning and this will continue due to the very strong pressure gradient.

DO NOT drive into high water there have already been fatalities this morning due to persons driving into high water.

Bunkertor · #224 Postby **Bunkertor** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:49 am

Such overnight severe weather thread is long time ago, isn´t it ?

#225 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:49 am

Interesting thing about this new tronado watch is that the county roster extends much further SW than the actual watch box itself. Hmm...

#226 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:50 am

Y'all it's not over by any means the storms to the SW are really popping again

Extremeweatherguy · #227 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:53 am

jschlitz wrote:

Y'all it's not over by any means the storms to the SW are really popping again

yeah, I think we are going to see some more supercells form out in that area soon.

Extremeweatherguy · #228 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:54 am

News channel just said a storm spotter has confirmed a tornado touchdown with the cell entering Montgomery county. I don't know how accurate they are..but this is what they said.

Extremeweatherguy · #229 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:57 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1052 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NORTHERN 2/3 OF CWFA THIS
MID MORNING. TRAINING NOTED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. HENCE
DESPITE FAST MOVING STORMS...2 INCHES/HR NOTED PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ZONES. WE EXPANDED FFA FOR REMAINDER OF CWFA
(NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ZONES) UNTIL 4 PM CDT. SOUNDINGS TAKEN THIS
MORNING INDICATE PW VALUES ABOUT 2.6 INCHES OVER REGION. 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS UP TO 800 M2/SEC2. MODELS
INDICATE THE MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
EASTERN ZONES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. UPDATED 1ST PERIOD
ZFPHGX REFLECTING UPDATED FFAHGX AND RECONFIGURED WCN.
37

#230 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:59 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:News channel just said a storm spotter has confirmed a tornado touchdown with the cell entering Montgomery county. I don't know how accurate they are..but this is what they said.

Scary,

here is the cell. Note that the cell that sparked the warning is now in the center of the warning box - headed right for Conroe. It also looks like the cell just entering the warning box could go Tornadic as well:

Johnny · #231 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:03 am

It's absolutely pouring here! It looks like that tornadic cell is heading right towards me. I'll let y'all know what happens, or doesn't happen hopefully.

Extremeweatherguy · #232 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:04 am

#233 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:07 am

MONTGOMERY TX-
1101 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY UNTIL 1115 AM
CDT...

AT 11103 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PINEHURST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANORAMA VILLAGE...
CONROE...
WILLIS...

TexWx · #234 Postby **TexWx** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:09 am

It's filling in again....

But, it looks like some dry air coming in from the west.

weatherrabbit_tx · #235 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:19 am

looking at the radar, its really getting going to the southwest....hope they pass quick!

#236 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:19 am

TexWx wrote:It's filling in again....

But, it looks like some dry air coming in from the west.

Yep, you can see it on the water vapor. Still a few hours to go, but when it ends, it will be abrupt.

Johnny · #237 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:21 am

Well it hit us....just some gusty winds and a freakin' monsoon!!!! I poured out 4 inches out of rain out of my rain gauge about 3 hours ago and it's approaching the 4 inch mark again!

Extremeweatherguy · #238 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:30 am

strong line of storms and scattered storm cells forming near El Campo will likely push into Houston over the next few hours and could dump over 5" of rain in some areas.

JenBayles · #239 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:32 am

Same thing just started here Johnny. VERY heavy and strongly blowing with under the BC Dome.

#240 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:39 am

The tornado outbreak seems to resemble one from a tropical storm. I think we'll have 15-30 weak tornadoes.

SE Texas weather thread #2 - Flood watch issued!

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