SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[jasons2k]

Hey Johnny - how is Lake Conroe looking these days? Last time I stopped by Papa's on the Lake (July) you couldn't use the boat docks at all - it was all dirt.

[Johnny]

They rains have definately helped. Right in front of Pappa's on 105 their is a jack in the box with a boat dock you can pull up to to get you a bite to eat. Back in July, you couldn't even bring a boat in there but now you can. All this rain has helped in a big way no doubt.

[Ptarmigan]

WOW! I was just sleeping peacefully and bang! I am awoken to high winds probably gusting to 50-60mph throwing rain into my windows. That storm I just had was one of the loudest I have ever heard where I am (sounded like a car was slamming into my walls) and I would be shocked if it was not severe (or at least very close to being severe). Surprisingly, however, there was little to no lightning and thunder as the line moved through. I will have a better idea of if this caused any damage in the morning I guess.

Dude, I woke up to loud claps of thunder last night.

[JenBayles]

Me too Johnny! DAMMITALL! I stayed up as late as I could keep my eyes open and slept through all the action Dave tells me came through around 3:00 a.m. Woke up to clear skies and a strong cool wind blowing tree trash all over the yard.

[Yankeegirl]

I heard some thunder earlier this morning maybe around 4 or 5 ish.... but it was off in a distance... for the most part I slept through what or if anything was going on... I did have to turn on my a/c yesterday for the first time in a while,... its off now...

[Extremeweatherguy]

each latest run of the GFS has looked cooler and cooler for the end of next week. If this keeps up, then JBs prediction of quite a cold shot down the plains and into the east looks good.

For now though, the 12Z GFS brings a 1028-1030mb high into SE Texas on Thursday but then it is progressive and moves it out of here by Friday. I think a slower scenario is probably more likely, meaning Thursday night could potentially be our coldest so far this Fall.

Stay tuned..

[gboudx]

each latest run of the GFS has looked cooler and cooler for the end of next week. If this keeps up, then JBs prediction of quite a cold shot down the plains and into the east looks good.

For now though, the 12Z GFS brings a 1028-1030mb high into SE Texas on Thursday but then it is progressive and moves it out of here by Friday. I think a slower scenario is probably more likely, meaning Thursday night could potentially be our coldest so far this Fall.

Stay tuned..

DFW NWS may be expecting it since they have us with 61 for the high on Wed and upper 60's on Thur. I know I should harvest my basil soon becuase at this rate, we'll get a frost/freeze sooner than expected. Then it'll be too late to harvest.

[jasons2k]

each latest run of the GFS has looked cooler and cooler for the end of next week. If this keeps up, then JBs prediction of quite a cold shot down the plains and into the east looks good.

For now though, the 12Z GFS brings a 1028-1030mb high into SE Texas on Thursday but then it is progressive and moves it out of here by Friday. I think a slower scenario is probably more likely, meaning Thursday night could potentially be our coldest so far this Fall.

Stay tuned..

Pray tell - what do you see that will make the progressive pattern we have been in for ~3 weeks suddenly change?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It has gotten extremely windy here in the last few minutes. Gates are flying open, tree limbs are coming down, debris is rolling down the street, and flags are being torn from their poles! Probably gusting to 45mph or so i'd imagine! (definatley higher than the 20-30mph gusts reported at the airports 30 minutes ago).

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have an update on last night's storm. It seems that it was severe after all, even with no warning. Down the street and around the corner I have learned that a large tree spilit in two blocking a driveway and many large limbs were down at many of the surrounding homes (about 1/10th of a mile from me). I also got an eyewitness report of the "trees in full bend slamming against the houses" at about 2am last night (something I can also agree with since it happened here too).

[JenBayles]

gboudx - I have some basil I'd like to keep. How to you prepare yours for storage?

[vbhoutex]

I have an update on last night's storm. It seems that it was severe after all, even with no warning. Down the street and around the corner I have learned that a large tree spilit in two blocking a driveway and many large limbs were down at many of the surrounding homes (about 1/10th of a mile from me). I also got an eyewitness report of the "trees in full bend slamming against the houses" at about 2am last night (something I can also agree with since it happened here too).

Sounds like it went severe to me. You should report it to NWS. I am, of course, presuming you know the parameters for severe designation. With the tree damage you're reporting it does sound that way.

[gboudx]

gboudx - I have some basil I'd like to keep. How to you prepare yours for storage?

This will be the 1st time I try to store it. My plan is to chop it, add it to water, then put it in ice cube trays to freeze. Once they're frozen, I'm gonna put them in a storage bag to use as needed. Another method is to blend with oil(like a pesto) and freeze. I like the idea of the water method better, so I'll try that one. I found this by searching the Internet for ideas.

My basil is in the ground, and I have a couple in pots. I'm gonna try and keep the one's in pots around longer by bringing them in on nights it's supposed to frost or freeze.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is going to be a cold one tonight! Within the last hour, winds have gone calm at IAH and Hooks and the temperature at both places has dropped 10 degrees (IN ONE HOUR). With good radiational cooling, I think widespread 40s north of I-10 are likely.

[JenBayles]

Johnny - both sound like good ideas. Think I'll do a little of both since the oil method might work better with different recipes. Thanks for the tips! BTW, I've found basil to be pretty hardy in the garden down to 40 degrees anyway, with no protection. Wonder if something like Row Cover would keep them going in our mild winters. Ever tried it?

Is this some wonderful weather we've had the past couple of days? Looks like one more day of it and we get back into the rainy pattern. Looking at the forecast on the NWS site, they're not looking for a major blast of cold air. Are they just being bearish until it's right on top of us again?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Call me crazy, but doesn't the NWS forecast and the NWS discussion contradict each other?

AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
308 PM CST SUN OCT 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF AND
SOUTHERLIES NOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS SETX. A BROAD SWATH OF
CIRRUS HEADED THIS WAY AS UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO MOVES
EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SC/CU SHOULD BE ON TAP MONDAY AS WELL AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS. RAIN CHANCES START UP MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SAN DIEGO LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SUBTROPICAL JET GETS MORE FAVORABLE WITH LIFT. TUESDAY THE
ASSOCIATED MILD PACIFIC FRONT MOVES INTO SETX LATE AFTERNOON BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT (NEAR THE COAST 12Z
WED) PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF SHRA OR
PERHAPS TSRA BUT FLOW ALOFT MORE ZONAL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WITH FAIRLY RICH 1000-
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS SETX AND ENTRANCE REGION TO SUBTROPICAL JET
MAX SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN/EMBEDDED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE
RAISED POPS TO 50 AND WOULD BE TEMPTED TO GO HIGHER. GFS BLOWS UP
A CONVECTIVE BULLSEYE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND DRIVES IT INTO
THE GULF FRI 00-06Z...AM NOT WILLING TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO YET
AS IT IS JUST WAY TO FAR OUT IN TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK
DRY THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND NOT
AS COOL AS THIS WEEKEND HAS BEEN.

here is there forecast for next weekend:

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 53.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 67.

Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 51.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Now compare that with what we had this Fri-Sun (at IAH):

FRI
High - 77
Low - 60

SAT
High - 76
Low - 51

SUN (so far)
High - 78
Low - 48


So is it just me, or is their forecast for next weekend definitely COOLER than what this weekend was? I just can not see how it is not as cool in their forecast..can you?

Just thought I would point that out.

[JenBayles]

Not the first time I've see that from HGX, Extreme. Part of the problem is that so many people have their fingers in the final forecast (even the discussions) that the right hand often doesn't know what the left hand is doing. One of the guys at the HGX office explained to me a few years ago how it all comes together and gets published. Typical government office really - everyone has to justify their existence.

[Johnny]

Hey EWG, you're pretty quiet about the front you were talking about. After reading the dicussions this morning, it's obvious that a strong front is no where in the works. Is JB still hyping this up?

[Yankeegirl]

I dont know if there is a strong cold front in the works, but I do notice a nice drop in temps for the end of the week... like today in the 80's and tomorrow 85... then drops to 69 for a high on Thursday... strong or not, there is definately a re-enforcing shot of more fall like weather in the works...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey EWG, you're pretty quiet about the front you were talking about. After reading the dicussions this morning, it's obvious that a strong front is no where in the works. Is JB still hyping this up?

Yes, JB is still calling for "big time cold", but it looks like it may be centered more east of here. However, he is still calling for a cool period for the plains and east this week. Also, he thinks the GFS may still be a bit too warm.

Also, in his latest discussion he mentioned a possible "major" arctic invasion into the west and plains by late in the month (around the 20th and beyond), so we will have to see what eventually comes of that..

Lots of watching and waiting in the coming weeks...eventually though, winter will be here.