SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

[vbhoutex]

Finally, we have some sun here in Houston!!!! Hopefully we can dry out a little. Already up to 70º and breezy. MUCH nicer than the weekend was.

[southerngale]

Do y'all need it? If so, congrats!

I was surprised last night when I heard thunder rumbling. Before long, we had a fairly strong thunderstorm going on and then it rained off and on during the night, from what I saw when awake. I didn't think it was expected. I checked radar and was surprised at all the action in Louisiana, with some smaller cells scattered about in Southeast Texas. We had some pretty heavy stuff this morning too, but it looks like most of it is in Louisiana now, so maybe we're done over here.

NWS did up this afternoon's forecast to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms though.

[PTrackerLA]

The rain is needed here. Before today we were over 4" below normal for the year. I would estimate that we've had around 2" here in the city with some areas picking up nearly 3". Just to my west radar is estimating 6-7" rainfall totals along with flood warnings. Storms continue to form just to our south and west but it looks like things are beginning to shift east, we shall see.

[Jagno]

We've definitely had enough rain to last us a while and from what I'm hearing there's more on the way. If my roof wasn't leaking it would be georgous outside.

[TexasSam]

I woke up about 4:30am with my dog all huddled up next to me, and woke up totaly when there was a bright blue lightning, and crashing thunder! I thought I even heard a bit of small hail hitting the window AC. Once again my yard is under water. I got me a wireless rain gauge today, so now it wont rain for weeks. I know it works because I misted it with hose.

[Extremeweatherguy]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO
THE MID-SOUTH AND LWR MS VLY...

...SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH/LWR MS VLY...
THE STRONG UPR LOW DROPPING INTO THE DESERT SW ON THU WILL BODILY
TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FRI/FRI NIGHT AS WEAKER
PERTURBATIONS EJECT NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF IT.
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY FRI
ACROSS OK EWD INTO THE OZARKS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND ENHANCED
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
EARLY FRI MORNING.

THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY REINFORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH OF THE RED RVR DURING THE MORNING. BUT...AS LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD...STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER NW TX AND
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM/MOIST
AIR NWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MID-AFTN. AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
BACKBUILD SWD INTO THIS SLY LLJ AND ROOT INTO THE RICHER GULF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. UPSTREAM...A TRIPLE POINT WILL EVOLVE OVER
NCNTRL/NERN TX AND WILL LIKELY BE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS BY
LATE AFTN.

ROUGHLY 60-70 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP THE SLY LLJ OF 45-50 KTS WILL
BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY VCNTY THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THE INFLUX
OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS.

LATER IN THE EVENING...LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL TEND TO
BACK AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH APPROACHES. THUS...KINEMATIC SET-UP MAY
BEGIN FAVORING EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS OVERNIGHT AS THE
ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LWR MS VLY. DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREATS. TORNADOES...HOWEVER...
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE MORE
RICHER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MS AND LA.

[jasons2k]

What happened to the forecast for today/tomorrow??? They were saying mid-upper 80's with some locations even touching 90F.....suddenly we're struggling to hit 80 today with 70s forecasted tomorrow??? grrrrr.

[Yankeegirl]

Today is awsome!!! This weather is great, wish it could be like this all year round!!! ((or at least for the summer)) All the local mets have Friday as a 30% chance of storms... Those numbers arent to good to me... I guess we will have to wait it out.. in the meantime, I am going out to the park with Sammy....

[CajunMama]

Looks like our weather is going to take another turn for the worse come Friday nite and Saturday. There goes the baseball jamboree at the park this saturday and i've spent the past week getting the concession stand ready

[jasons2k]

Latest from Jeff:

Threat for severe storms Friday night.

Discussion:

Powerful storm system plowing into the SW US will eject into the plains Friday. Ingredients will be coming together for a significant outbreak of severe weather including the threat of long tracked violent tornadoes over E TX into LA. Surface high will move east today allowing surface winds to swing around to the south and surge rich Gulf moisture back into the area. Pool of mid to upper 60 degree dewpoints poised over the Gulf will swing northward tonight into early Friday. Warm frontal boundary will develop and move northward over the region Friday placing the entire region in a warm and sultry warm sector. There is a small threat for a few storms to develop on the warm front Friday morning mainly N of HWY 105.

Main event looks to be Friday night and mainly over the N ½ of SE TX (I-10 northward). Low level jet will really crank out the wind on Friday with 850mb southerly flow of 50-60kts supporting ground winds of 20-40mph. Upper trough ejects into the plains with a 80-110kt jet core plowing into central TX Friday afternoon atop strong southerly flow. Warm front should reach the Red River valley by mid afternoon and backed easterly flow near this feature supports a significant tornado threat from NC TX to NC LA. Shear values are very impressive with this system and given the amount of instability that will be available a substantial outbreak of severe weather is likely. Main question over SE TX is capping intensity as very warm mid level temps. will be spreading NE from the coastal bend as 850mb winds veer to the SW bring hot air off the higher terrain of Mexico. Feel the cap will be too strong to break S of I-10. N of I-10 lift from the incoming frontal boundary should breach the inversion resulting in explosive development.

Expect intense convective development by mid afternoon along the central TX dry line from DFW to near Austin. Initial modes will be supercells with a high tornado risk where discrete cells are embedded within favorable backed low level flow and kinematic profiles. Over time the most significant tornado threat will shift toward NE TX along and just south of the warm front where surface flow will remained backed increasing the 0-1km shear values. A few violent tornado events will be possible in this region and SPC has already hoisted a Day 2 moderate risk outline (See below). Storms should consolidate into line segments and eventually a squall line late Friday evening as they approach SE TX from the NW. Expect severe line to move through CLL by midnight and reaching metro Houston 2-6am. Cap intensity will dictate how far S and W the line extends and it is very possible that Kingwood may get hammered and Sugar Land gets nothing. Point to be made that whatever develops and whatever breaks the cap will go severe quickly given the large amounts of shear and instability that will be present.

May see a few lingering showers early Saturday morning, however strong subsidence will set in quickly with cool dry advection overtaking the region by mid morning resulting in sunny skies and pleasant conditions.

Next storm system cranks up Monday and may approach the area late Tuesday…track of this system is a little further south and hence the threat of severe weather over SE TX may be greater.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Day 2 outlook from the SPC:

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is pretty breezy out there right now. I would estimate frequent 25-30mph gusts (and this is confirmed by the latest airport obs).

[JenBayles]

Oh yeah, it's breezy out there today! I had to take down the pool umbrellas since they kept trying out their "Mary Poppins" routine.
How's the severe outlook shaping up for Friday night? Am I going to have to keep the coffee pot on?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Oh yeah, it's breezy out there today! I had to take down the pool umbrellas since they kept trying out their "Mary Poppins" routine.
How's the severe outlook shaping up for Friday night? Am I going to have to keep the coffee pot on?

here is the latest...

updated SPC day 2 outlook:


most recent Houston AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
248 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN TODAY WITH MAINLY SE WINDS AT THE SFC
ACROSS SE TX. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DIG SE THROUGH THE DESERT SW AND
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF EAST TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING WARM FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
S TX THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH DURING THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD REACH A KLCH TO KBWD LINE BY MORNING. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW 60S WITH UPPER 60F DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT WARM
FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION BUT THERE IS SOME
CONCERN ON HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH.
STILL...NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON SETTING UP A
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. CAPPING WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION STORMS. SOME OF
THESE COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MODERATE RISK RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KCLL TO KJAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG OF
CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...ASSUMING CLOUD COVER CAN BREAK UP ENOUGH
FOR DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. CAPPING WILL
BE THE MAIN ISSUE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50KTS WILL BE PLENTY FOR SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND BACKED TO THE SE ESPECAILLY INVOF THE WARM FRONT. LCL`S
SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA SO THAT ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
DO DEVELOP MAY BE TORNADIC ESPECIALLY IN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW.
EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO BE MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AND NOT IMPACT HOUSTON METRO DURING THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS VEER MORE TO THE SW ALLOWING FOR MORE LINEAR/BOW
SEGMENTED CONVECTION TO EVOLVE FROM ANY SUPERCELLS. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREATS
AT THIS TIME. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED BY SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW ALTHOUGH A FEW OUTFLOW DOMINATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SATURDAY ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

CONTINUED THE TREND TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SINCE THIS SEEMS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY. STILL POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SE TX TO BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE
WEATHER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

THE FORECAST INTRODUCES ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DROP INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND EJECT INTO THE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS RUN LOOKS TO OPEN THE
TROUGH UP A BIT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IS A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF ALSO SEEMS TO BE
MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE RUN AS WELL. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE GIVEN MODEL INCONSISTENCY WITH
HIGHEST POPS AGAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE ANOTHER
WARM FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT. MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
AS WELL WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT IF MOISTURE
RETURNS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...MAY SEE ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE. MUCH LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...SHOULD HAVE SFC LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH PASS TO THE NORTH OF SE TX WITH A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS ALSO BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS NEXT FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE.

[JenBayles]

I've been wondering if our severe threat would increase. Seems like whenever we get howling winds ahead of a spring frontal system is when we get hammered. And... my weather-butt tells me things may get interesting.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like an interesting weather event.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With the active jetstream and warm temperatures, gulf moisture, and high dewpoints along with heating...a significant severe weather event with tornadoes is likely from Texas to LA and across the South and SouthEast

[JonathanBelles]

A little excitement for everyone! im looking forward to it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A little excitement for everyone! im looking forward to it.

We could get very severe storms on Sunday here fact789! It's going to be a very stormy weekend!!!

[JonathanBelles]

Im hoping its better (worse) than the last line.