Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31

[Ed Mahmoud]

sleepy time.

[Category 5]

The warning has been allowed to expire. Now the threat turns to damaging straight line winds.

Time for bed finally.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1124 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

NEC067-095-300434-
GAGE NE-JEFFERSON NE-
1124 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND WEST CENTRAL GAGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CDT...

THE WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT HAS EXPIRED AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED AT THIS TIME.

HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

[HarlequinBoy]

I don't think we should be calling EF4/EF5 yet.. there hasn't been reports of homes swept away or extreme damage yet from what I've been watching.

Nice little hook south of Marshalltown, Iowa..

[KWT]

000
WFUS53 KDMX 300939
TORDMX
IAC039-117-181-301015-
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0035.080530T0940Z-080530T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
440 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN LUCAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 515 AM CDT.

* AT 437 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES WEST OF
LACONA...OR 30 MILES SOUTH OF DES MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 48 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LACONA AND MILO BY 455 AM CDT...

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN
INTERIOR ROOM. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE OR IN A
CAR...SEEK SHELTER IN A REINFORCED BUILDING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.

LAT...LON 4121 9370 4131 9340 4117 9333 4116 9333
4116 9332 4112 9330 4105 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 251DEG 42KT 4115 9360

$$

KINNEY

[liveweatherman]

Today looks to be a bit calmer for tornadoes. Illinois and another area in Kansas will be the high light.
Where are the tornadoes going to be Today? read





TORNADO WATCH
Issue Date: 404 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
Expiration: 900 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

TORNADO WATCH 392 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC011-031-045-051-057-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-
139-163-177-179-183-301400-
/O.CON.KWNS.TO.A.0392.000000T0000Z-080530T1400Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON CEDAR CLINTON
DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY
IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK
LEE LINN LOUISA
MUSCATINE SCOTT VAN BUREN
WAPELLO WASHINGTON

[CrazyC83]

All the threat areas are not hatched so maybe today won't be so bad:

SPC AC 301248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...AND INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO THE OH VLY AND
GRT LKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF FAST WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT CROSSED THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO
VLY ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS MI/IND/OH TODAY AND THE LWR
GRT LKS TONIGHT. UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER CO SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE EWD. PARTIAL PHASING OF THAT DISTURBANCE WITH NRN STREAM
TROUGH NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS ND EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BROAD BAND
OF FAST WLY FLOW OVER THE MID MS VLY BY THIS EVENING.

A LWR LEVELS...SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SPEED MAX SHOULD MOVE
FROM SE MN THIS MORNING TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WITH THE WAVE LIKELY WILL BE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM
LWR MI WSW TO NRN MO. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN
MI WSW INTO NRN/CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL MO/S CNTRL KS BY THIS AFTN.
FARTHER NW...SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS WILL EXIST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE OVER THE ERN DAKS...NRN/CNTRL
MN...AND WI/IA.

...GRT LKS/OH VLY WSW INTO MID MS VLY/MO/KS...
DESPITE LIMITED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...ONGOING MESO-BETA SCALE
CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH SMALL BOWS AND EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES THIS MORNING FROM ERN IA/NERN MO INTO NRN IL AS
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED LEAD SPEED MAX CONTINUES E TOWARD THE LWR GRT
LKS.

LATER TODAY...SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN KS ENE INTO IL/IND. SBCAPE
SHOULD REACH 3000 J/KG OVER ERN KS AND MO...WITH VALUES AOA 2000
J/KG EWD INTO IND.

DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CO DISTURBANCE SHOULD
SUPPORT VIGOROUS NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM ERN KS INTO CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF MO/IL. EXISTING
STORMS ALSO MAY STRENGTHEN OVER IL/SRN MI AND NRN IND.

ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB WARM SECTOR FLOW WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY VEERED
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...STRENGTHENING WINDS AT 500 MB /WITH SPEEDS
AOA 50 KTS/ WILL YIELD LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS. COUPLED
WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...RESULTING SUPERCELL STORMS COULD
YIELD A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND.
THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM MO
INTO IL/IND.

WITH THE MEAN WIND FIELD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THIS EVENING...ONE OR MORE
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS /BOW ECHOES/ SHOULD EVOLVE OVER ERN
MO/IL AND IND. AND...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS RECOVERY CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH THE LWR GRT
LKS AND UPR OH VLY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD
OCCUR NEAR EXPECTED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAXIMUM OVER
IND/OH...WHERE DMGG WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FARTHER
W...MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS SBCINH STRENGTHENS W OF THE
MS RVR. A FEW SPOTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY SVR STORMS
COULD...HOWEVER...PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY IN EXIT REGION OF
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED LLJ OVER SRN KS/NRN OK.

...UPR MS VLY/NRN PLNS...
WELL NW OF THE MAIN SVR THREAT AREA IN THE MIDWEST/ERN PLNS...A
SEPARATE REGION OF WDLY SCTD...DIURNAL SVR STORMS MAY EVOLVE IN
MODERATE BUT DEEP CYCLONIC W TO WNWLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF NRN
STREAM TROUGH. 500 MB COLD POOL WITH TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 16C
WILL OVERLAY MID TO UPR 50S F SFC DEW POINTS. COUPLED WITH
CONFLUENT CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SFC...SETUP COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW AREAS OF STORMS ORGANIZED INTO BANDS OR CLUSTERS FROM THE
NRN HI PLNS ESE INTO THE UPR MS VLY. MODEST DEEP SHEAR SHOULD KEEP
ACTIVITY MULTICELL...BUT SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY DEVELOP FOR SVR HAIL
AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ALREADY
PRESENT IN ERN SD/WRN MN...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM WITH
HEATING ALONG CLOUDY-CLEAR BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/30/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1305Z (9:05AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[tornado92]

I think that today, the hardest hit would be Illnois, Iowa and Indiana as the front goes through. Also a very large tornado warning has been issued for this area. But it probably won't be as active as days gone past.

[CrazyC83]

Conclusion on yesterday: the high risk verified, but it was not correctly placed - should have been farther south and west.

[Bunkertor]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

TORNADO WATCH 393 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC001-009-011-017-031-043-057-063-067-071-073-091-093-095-099-
105-107-109-113-123-125-129-131-143-155-161-169-175-179-187-197-
203-301900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0393.080530T1255Z-080530T1900Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BROWN BUREAU
CASS COOK DUPAGE
FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY KANKAKEE
KENDALL KNOX LA SALLE
LIVINGSTON LOGAN MARSHALL
MASON MCDONOUGH MCLEAN
MENARD MERCER PEORIA
PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER
STARK TAZEWELL WARREN
WILL WOODFORD

[CrazyC83]

The MCS to the west seems to be falling apart, and it may go discrete again later this morning...

[badger70]

So my area (ILX) is in the crosshairs today with 15% tornado probability. Looks like supercells on tap for today.

[CrazyC83]

So my area (ILX) is in the crosshairs today with 15% tornado probability. Looks like supercells on tap for today.

It isn't hatched though, but it might be at 1630Z.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 393...

VALID 301513Z - 301615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 393 CONTINUES.

LEADING EDGE OF DECAYING MCS HAS WEAKENED OVER BUREAU AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES IN NRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EWD AT ROUGHLY
40-45KT AND SHOULD APPROACH THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BY 16Z. THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL POSITIVELY
INFLUENCE THESE STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...SFC
HEATING AND INCREASING BUOYANCY BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN
A MARKED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL IL...SWWD
INTO MO.

..DARROW.. 05/30/2008


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

41628909 42008767 41558744 41158781 40968924

[Ed Mahmoud]

Central and Southern Illinois look like the hot spots per 12Z GFS. An example, Mount Vernon. But nowhere near as bad as North Kansas and South Nebraska forecast soundings yesterday.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bunkertor just emailed me a news story with pix of German hail, baseball sized, I guess.

[CrazyC83]

2400 CAPE/13 CINH = quite explosive

[KWT]

Wow thats amazing sized hail, my location had that sort of hail breifly in a huge MCS in 2004 but I was out in London, which instead only got marble sized hail.

[Bunkertor]

Definately a very rare event. I´ll post some links in the global lounge

[CrazyC83]

1630Z out - virtually unchanged, slightly trimmed MDT at northern end where the MCS managed to penetrate

[KWT]

Watch 393 still up at the moment:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ ... ar_big.gif

Expected up for another few hours.