June 7 - 13 Severe Weather

[Texas Snowman]

Now rotation in Allen at Central Expressway/U.S. 75. Again, highly developed area in northern Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

[Texas Snowman]

Haven't personally heard of any damage (yet). But spotters continue to observe a tornado in northern D/FW Metroplex.

-----

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
715 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

TXC085-113-397-110045-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-090611T0045Z/
COLLIN TX-DALLAS TX-ROCKWALL TX-
715 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
ROCKWALL...NORTHEASTERN DALLAS AND SOUTHERN COLLIN COUNTIES...

AT 716 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PLANO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MURPHY...PARKER AND GARLAND BY 725 PM CDT...
ST. PAUL...SACHSE...LUCAS AND ROWLETT BY 730 PM CDT...
WYLIE BY 735 PM CDT...
LAVON AND FATE BY 740 PM CDT...

[Dave]

Taking a break..back afterwhile.

[KatDaddy]

Very intense bow echo blasting across Fort Worth and Dallas tonight.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
742 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MARIES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT.

* AT 742 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 7 MILES NORTH OF ROLLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN MARIES
AND NORTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWN OF VICHY.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
DECATUR ILLINOIS TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366...WW
367...WW 368...

DISCUSSION...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN CNTRL MO...AND
MORE ISOLD STORMS FORMING IN DPVA/WAA AREA AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY ENE ACROSS THE MS RVR LATER THIS EVE.
COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LVL VEERING PROFILES ALONG W-E STNRY FRONT
OVER E CNTRL MO-CNTRL IL...MODERATE DEEP WLY SHEAR ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...AND RELATIVELY SMALL TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE ISOLD
TORNADOES. FARTHER S...SERN MO MAY BE GRAZED BY NRN PART OF BOW MCS
NOW IN NW AR AS THAT SYSTEM CONTINUES ENE AT 40-50 KTS.

...CORFIDI

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL KS...FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110100Z - 110200Z

AN ISOLATED/SHORT-TERM HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADIC THREAT COULD EVOLVE
ACROSS SWRN KS AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NWRN OK INVOF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD INTO S-CNTRL KS.
RELATIVELY LIMITED TEMPORAL/AREAL EXTENT SHOULD MITIGATE THE NEED
FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RECENT OBSERVATIONAL AND ANALYSIS IMAGERY PLACED A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE JUST INTO SWRN KS AROUND 45 W GCK
AS OF 0045Z. SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE
IS NOTED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CIRCULATION IN 00Z DDC RAOB. IN THE WAKE
OF AN MCS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF MORE ROBUST INSOLATION
RESULTED IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODIFIED DDC RAOB SUGGEST
MLCAPE SHOULD BE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITHIN THIS ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SWRN KS INTO ERN OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..GRAMS.. 06/11/2009

[Dave]

2113 hrs (913 edt) still tracking across the USA

29 thunderstorm warnings
4 tornado warnings
18 flash flood warnings

Note: Missouri's weather now is mine for tomorrow. We have a flood watch in place and are expecting severe weather tomorrow during the day. With that, I'll say goodnight, going to get some rest in case all this comes together on top of us tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Great job David. Watching the outflow carefully KatDaddy.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Great job David. Watching the outflow carefully KatDaddy.

I don't want 70 mph+ wind gusts like they had in DFW area, but we could use the rain.


My guess, between loss of daytime heating, and cap on both LCH and CRP soundings, storms don't make it to immediate HOU area.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 600 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BLOOMINGTON INDIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OWENSBORO KENTUCKY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 367...WW 368...WW 369...

DISCUSSION...ENHANCED VERY MOIST SWLY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS NE AR AND
WRN TN/KY ATTM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE INTO THE LWR OH VLY
OVERNIGHT... AHEAD OF WEAK UPR VORT/AND POSSIBLE MCV IN MO. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY INCREASE ALONG WARM FRONT SEGMENT
OVER PARTS OF IND/N CNTRL KY AS THIS OCCURS. GIVEN VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT... SEMI-DISCRETE NATURE OF EXISTING STORMS...AND BACKED
NEAR-SFC FLOW NEAR FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

...CORFIDI

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111254Z - 111400Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN STRENGTH ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING...AND INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

MCV IN NRN MS/SWRN TN IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD THIS
MORNING...PROVIDING FAVORABLE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
CONCERT WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX NOTED ON WV IMAGERY ROUGHLY NEAR THE
AR/MS BORDERS. OVERSHOOTING/COOLING TOPS ON VIS AND IR...IN ADDITION
TO RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN IN A
MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z BNA
SOUNDING. MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 45 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS WARMING CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE MCV IN A
RELATIVELY THIN AREA OF CLOUDS...AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

..HURLBUT.. 06/11/2009


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 545 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LUFKIN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 372...

DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY
SEWD ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN/SERN TX
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FLUX AND INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WHERE STRONGLY VEERED
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 50KT WLY MID LEVEL JET STREAK ARE PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURE. HAIL AND HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AS COMPLEX MOVES TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER/BPT AREA.

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
COUNTRY FROM TX/OK EAST ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS BULK OF THE
CONUS BETWEEN LARGE-SCALE BROAD TROUGHING OVER CANADA AND AN
EXPANSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF AND ADJACENT
GULF COAST STATES. THE BROAD BAND OF MODEST 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE PLAINS
AND OH VALLEY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WITHIN THIS FLOW EXIST A
PLETHORA OF WAVES/PERTURBATIONS ACROSS A VARIETY OF SCALES.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRACTURED/SEGMENTED FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM
HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES SEWD AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND THEN ENEWD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO THE OH VALLEY.
SEVERAL FRONTAL WAVES...SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/SUSTAINED... EXIST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS....
ONE OF THE MORE OBVIOUS LARGER-SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXIST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING. A NUMBER OF MUCH SMALLER SCALE CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED/ENHANCED VORTICES SURROUND THIS WAVE FROM MO TO OH/WV AND
SOUTH TO TN. WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE
AREAS AND POCKETS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION AS THE ENTIRE
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND
CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY. LINES OF STORMS IN CYCLONIC ARCS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.
ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WITH THE LOW AND FASTER FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM PERSISTENCE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SPREADING FROM TN/KY EWD TO WV/PA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS...
QUASI-STATIONARY OR SLOWER MOVING AREAS OF DIABATICALLY ENHANCED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS FROM OK/TX ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE TN VALLEY. UNLIKE THE MIDWEST FRONTAL WAVE...THESE
SURFACE LOWS WILL GENERALLY LACK LARGER SCALE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION
NEAR THESE FEATURES...AND ALONG FRONTAL SEGMENTS...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS ACROSS TX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS GIVEN VERY MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT ALONG THE FRONTAL SEGMENT
SITUATED ACROSS NRN TX. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE BACKBUILDING
THIS MORNING ON THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING FARTHER SOUTH. MODEST WLY
FLOW AND MID LEVEL DRY LAYER MAY SUPPORT COLD POOL GENERATION AND
EVENTUAL FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH WIND AND HAIL
THREATS SPREADING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA AND MS THROUGH LATER
TODAY.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
THE NEXT LARGER DISTURBANCE IN THE CONUS WAVE TRAIN WILL MOVE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WHILE UNDERGOING
GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFICATION. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FRONT BACKED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
WY/CO.

STORM PERSISTENCE AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH ON AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTED BY MARGINALLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. INITIAL/DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY TO ACQUIRE ROTATION GIVEN HELICITY-RICH
ENVIRONMENT ENCOUNTERED NEAR AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. ONE OR
TWO ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS COULD BE SUSTAINED EWD ACROSS WRN
SECTIONS OF NEB/KS GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST WEAK LEE-CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO SOME HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION...A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF A SMALL MCS OR TWO CAN
DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATE PREFERENTIALLY ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY
AXIS FROM ERN CO INTO ADJACENT KS/NEB.

..CARBIN.. 06/11/2009

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
200 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 373...

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED MCV IS MOVING EWD FROM WRN INTO MIDDLE
TN THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE SHOWED MLCAPE OF
ALMOST 3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WHILE THE
MEMPHIS VWP REVEALED A 40-50 KT JET AS LOW AS 2 KM AGL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV. THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND
SPREADING EWD INTO ERN TN LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...THOMPSON

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 315 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
LONGVIEW TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 370...WW 371...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS VIGOROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL ASCENT LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER INTENSE MCS
AND BOW ECHO THAT MOVED ACROSS THE DFW AREA AND ESEWD TO PARTS OF
NERN TX. WHILE THE EARLIER SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL EAST...WIND
PROFILER DATA INDICATED STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS
CONTINUING ATOP RESIDUAL MCS COLD POOL. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FUEL INTENSE UPDRAFTS
WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE DFW METROPLEX ESEWD
NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAK ELY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW...TOPPED BY
INCREASINGLY STRONG WLY FLOW TO ABOUT 40KT BETWEEN 3-5KM WAS
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

Watch 372 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 372

VALID 111240Z - 111300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

WW 372 WILL BE EXPANDED IN AREA AND HAVE A NEW EXPIRATION TIME
OF 15Z.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...

VALID 111239Z - 111345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372
CONTINUES.

GIVEN A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DAL/FWD
METROPLEX AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WWD ALONG A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THROCKMORTON...WFO FWD WILL BE EXTENDING WW 372 BOTH
TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES GIVEN
LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL EWD TRAINING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT.

DESPITE LACK OF ANY MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS N TX WITH THIS ONGOING
ACTIVITY...A 30-35 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE/MODERATE
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING. MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BY THAT TIME. UNTIL THEN...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 06/11/2009

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF FORT WORTH TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE FORMING THIS MORNING OVER N TX
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT N OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. INFLOW AIR
MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000-3000
J/KG LATER TODAY. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSCALE STORM GROWTH INTO A
SEWD-MOVING MCS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...MEAD/THOMPSON

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
WESTERN VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BRISTOL TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES WEST OF ATHENS
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...

DISCUSSION...BOWING MCS OVER MIDDLE TN INTO NERN AL SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY TODAY WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. DEEP
WLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF SYSTEM
WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...MEAD/THOMPSON

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low

[Dave]