Texas Summer 2020

[dhweather]

From FWD's AFD yesterday (12 JUL 2020) , Ted Ryan gives some really good insight here:

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The upper level high will dominate our weather through the next
week, but the center will translate eastward and become more of a
broad subtropical high (or an extension of the Bermuda ridge) by
mid to late week. In doing so, geopotential heights will decrease
over the region and the arrival of a more southeasterly fetch
through the low and mid levels will help temperatures "cool" just
a bit. Still we will be hot, with highs in the mid 90s east to
near 100 west. Heat indices will be below the heat advisory
criteria of 105. Lows will continue in the mid 70s in rural areas
to upper 70s in the urban areas.

While the static, generically hot forecast is usually paired with
the term "and dry," there will be some rain on the radar again
early Wednesday and Thursday mornings. The combination of high
moisture and steep lapse rates aloft should produce elevated
showers around daybreak. Most of the convection will produce virga
and little measurable rainfall, so PoPs and QPF will be low.

Since there`s not much else to write about today, I can explain
what causes this type convection because it`s pretty unique and
tends to only occur in the late spring and summer months. There is
currently a layer of high moisture around 500-600 mb across much
of Texas from days of repeated deep convection near and under the
upper level high. We usually call these highs a "dirty ridge" and
that`s because they tend to have a lot of cloud cover and
convection associated with them. Because this moisture gets
embedded within the upper high, the winds aloft are light and the
moisture is essentially trapped because it can`t get advected
away. The only thing working to get rid of this moisture is a
gradual subsidence drying process. Anyway, this layer of moisture
has some interesting things happen during the nighttime hours.
The top of the layer radiates heat to space effectively and cools.
Meanwhile the bottom of the moisture layer has more trouble
radiating to space because it`s "blocked" by water vapor above it.
In addition, it is also receiving longwave radiation from the
Earth`s surface. So it has trouble cooling as much or as fast.
After several hours of darkness, net instability is created
within the moisture layer. While this increase in instability
isn`t much, if the atmospheric temperature profile were already
nearly unstable (and it will be the next few days), any increase
in instability makes the temperature profile super-adiabatic.
This is thermodynamically unstable and air will naturally starts
to rise and convect into small showers. After sunrise this
instability profile diminishes as sunlight is now hitting the tops
of the clouds and warming them faster than the lower levels. So
for the next few mornings, expect to see some altocumulus
castellanus and signs of virga, and if one is lucky, maybe a few
sprinkles or bonafide brief showers.

TR.92

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Great read. So many variables in the weather, hopefully you guys can grab something out of it.

[bubba hotep]

Very cool, I've also heard them refereed to as "clown" ridges. FWD has done a great job on AFDs over the years and you can almost always learn something.

[bubba hotep]

Weeklies look pretty much seasonal for Texas through August. Also, no real signs of above normal tropical activity in the Gulf. Maybe the WCAB later in the period, which would open the door for something to get pulled northward into Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Time to start watching for a Gulf system in the 7 - 14 day range with a big ridge over the top and lowering pressures across the Gulf. Any potential system would track westward into Texas.

Some GEFS support but both the GEFS and EPS show a surge of moisture into SE Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For a little over a week, the GFS has been showing lower 500 mb pressures over the GOM, then swings it towards the Texas Coast. Def should be watched.

[gpsnowman]

The evil HP dome will shift northeast allowing slight relief in Texas next week. Mid to upper 90's is seasonal. Small rain chances with increasing humidity won't make it feel much better.

[Brent]

For a little over a week, the GFS has been showing lower 500 mb pressures over the GOM, then swings it towards the Texas Coast. Def should be watched.

yup I'll be in Galveston Monday-Friday so I will definitely be watching

[Brent]

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting week ahead for July with 2 tropical disturbances heading our way. Bring on the rain and cooler temperatures!

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting week ahead for July with 2 tropical disturbances heading our way. Bring on the rain and cooler temperatures!

Yeah, we need the rain again!

[vbhoutex]

Interesting week ahead for July with 2 tropical disturbances heading our way. Bring on the rain and cooler temperatures!

Yeah, we need the rain again!

Still!! Even after 1.2" at yy house in W. Houston a few days ago.

[Brent]

I just got to Galveston and it rained 3 times between Houston and here but not really raining at the beach feels amazing though after the sunny and upper 90s in Dallas lol

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Interesting week ahead for July with 2 tropical disturbances heading our way. Bring on the rain and cooler temperatures!

Yeah, no thanks given that it will eventually pull out eastward and suck the high pressure ridge in it's place right as we begin August.

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting week ahead for July with 2 tropical disturbances heading our way. Bring on the rain and cooler temperatures!

Yeah, no thanks given that it will eventually pull out eastward and suck the high pressure ridge in it's place right as we begin August.

That doesn't look likely...most guidance indicates we'll be in a cooler and wetter than normal pattern into the first part of August behind the tropical disturbance.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This week, the high pressure is in a spot that pulls in moisture and troughs.

[Cpv17]

Hello to my Austin friends!! You guys could get some rain from
91L! Wake up

[weatherdude1108]

Just starting with the bad news, the drought outlook doesn't look great for the southern portion of the state, nor the rain projection in the 3 to 4 week experimental outlook. Maybe La Nina-driven through October with the drought outlook(?).




But in the short term, the good news is above normal precip and below normal temps in the 6 to 10 day range, with above normal precip continuing into the 14 day range. Also, look to be (HOPEFULLY) a wet weekend! That's the best course the tropical system can take for my area to get rain. Maybe we can mitigate the long-term drought outlook in the short term(?) (with highs in the 80s this weekend, in mid to late July). I'm hopeful!

[Portastorm]

Promising us ample rainfall this far out is equivalent to "CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!"

But we hope you're right!

Hello to my Austin friends!! You guys could get some rain from
91L! Wake up

[Haris]

Can we please lock the 12z euro ???