Texas Spring 2024

[Ntxw]

The PDO is starting to become neutral
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SVT9b.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SVT9b.png


I got it from here
https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

It's the lagging effects of Nino. The coming Nina will tug it more negative as the year goes on though. There really isn't a year that goes very Nina that starts with -PDO with a flip.

[Ntxw]

For the major population centers of Texas it's been a pretty good start to the year in terms of rain. This is comforting in that it opens up the Nino->Nina transition years with -PDO such as 1973, and 2007 that were cool, wet summers and overall wet years. Had we started dry, then the pool would've been less forgiving.

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty nice non severe storm over me now

[txtwister78]

Storm southwest of Vernon means business. A little better environment just south of the river into TX. Probably the one to watch over the next hour for possible tornado development.

[txtwister78]

Storm southwest of Vernon means business. A little better environment just south of the river into TX. Probably the one to watch over the next hour for possible tornado development.

There it is...tornado warned now west of Wichita Falls.

[bubba hotep]

Watch up for DFW until 3:00 am

[Brent]

Finally a lightning strike

The real surprise today has been the lack of strong wind here

[ElectricStorm]

Multiple rounds of nice non-severe storms here today, pretty good for a marginal risk. I expected a little more in western OK today but it just didn't happen and most of the enhanced risk didn't see much at all. That being said, looks like there were a few tornadoes in TX and KS so it wasn't a complete bust.

[Brent]

Oh now it's windy on the back side of the rain

[snownado]

As rainy as this March has been for DFW (5.63"), we're still 0.11" shy of cracking the Top 10 Wettest list.

If it doesn't happen with the light/moderate stratiform rain this morning, it'll end up just short with the rest of the month looking dry.

[Iceresistance]

Just over an inch in DFW International Airport

[Iceresistance]

Abnormally strong signal for April 1st (THIS IS NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE)


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SV3Ns.png


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SV3Nh.png

Not imaged, but Shear is over 60 knots.

Dewpoint is trending west too.

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SV3NT.gif

[CaptinCrunch]

April and May are our typical severe months

[ElectricStorm]

Abnormally strong signal for April 1st (THIS IS NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE)

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SV3Ns.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SV3Ns.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SV3Nh.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SV3Nh.png

Not imaged, but Shear is over 60 knots.

Dewpoint is trending west too.
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SV3NT.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SV3NT.gif

Yeah I saw that but not getting excited yet since it's still a week out.

[rwfromkansas]

That is an impressive signal, but it's a week out.

[Ntxw]

Looks like a cold trough though, might be chilly start to April.

[Iceresistance]

The SPC is aware of this

By Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday, most medium-range guidance shows
an upper trough/low moving from the eastern Pacific across the
western states. There appears to be a somewhat bimodal distribution
in various GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS solutions regarding the eventual
ejection of this upper trough across the southern/central Plains.
Some guidance shows a more positively tilted and elongated upper
trough evolution, which could still support severe potential across
the southern/central Plains by early next week. Other solutions show
a more compact, neutral to negatively tilted trough ejection.
Stronger low-level mass response in this scenario would lead to
greater low-level moisture return, related stronger instability east
of a dryline, and a potentially better setup for severe convection
next Monday. Regardless, predictability remains far too low to add a
15% severe delineation at this extended time frame. But, trends will
be monitored.

[captainbarbossa19]

You do have to look at more teleconnections aside from ENSO, but this is a good sign for those who like rain in Texas.

[Brent]

Winter is back here apparently

Other than the weekend not much warm air

[Yukon Cornelius]

Light freeze this morning. Made it down to 31.