.LONG TERM... /Issued 310 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/
North and Central Texas will remained positioned beneath the
eastern flank of an unseasonably strong mid level ridge through
this weekend and likely into at least the first part of next week.
Dry conditions and temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal
will hence be common across the board. One possible exception may
be Thursday night or Friday, when a weak disturbance embedded in
the northwest flow aloft may generate some mid level clouds and
perhaps a few sprinkles across the northeast zones. The National
Blended Model`s probability of any measurable precipitation
remains below 10 percent, which is where POPs will also be kept. A
lack of moisture and subsidence associated with the ridge will
keep the rest of the region warm and dry.
Operational models indicate a strong upper trough sweeping
southeast from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic region over the
weekend, bringing our next potential cold front. Unfortunately it
still appears to still be about a week away, with unseasonably
warm and dry weather remaining common in the meantime.
The models always have something 7-10 days out, only to reach the end of that stretch with that change being pushed out another 7-10 days. I don't see any change in the current pattern until we get past mid month, and there is no guaranty a change will happen then. The change will happen, just the global mechanics isn't working in our favor at this current time.
