SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

[Portastorm]

It seems every NWS office around Texas has latched onto this cold coming down. I'll tell ya one thing, I'm ready for the change.

What is JB now saying about this front for us here in Texas EWG?

In a general sense, nothing new ... front is coming and it's going be a doozie!

He'll post his zone forecasts at some point today and I'm sure one of us will post here with that news.

I suspect NWS forecasters will be shaving off numbers the next few forecasts for later this week. Highs in the 60s are very real possibilities for you in Houston and us in Austin late this week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It seems every NWS office around Texas has latched onto this cold coming down. I'll tell ya one thing, I'm ready for the change.

What is JB now saying about this front for us here in Texas EWG?

JB isn't really focusing on TX specifically, but instead the nation as a whole. For instance, he thinks parts of the upper plains will not break Freezing for highs behind this front and he thinks places like Minneapolis and Chicago will get decent snows (sending the media into a frenzy). If these ideas are correct, then that means the upper midwest high temp. forecasts are currently 10-20F too warm. If the same is true for us, then there is potential for a much chillier situation.

He has, however, mentioned that Texas should not see a warm November like last year and he has said many times on his videos that "summer is over" for us behind this front. If he is correct, then we may have seen our last 90+F readings until next Spring..

[double D]

In Fredericksburg the high is supposed to be in the mid 60's on Thursday and low in the low 40's under partly cloudy skies. If we get more clouds than expected I wouldn't be surprised to see upper 50's for highs. I think in the next couple of days the NWS should start lowering the temps. even more. (as long as the GFS dosent' start flip flopping)

[Portastorm]

Hey double D ... I see you've been a member since Feb 06 ... but good to see you aboard! Will be nice to have regular poster from the Hill Country. We have several of us in the Austin metro area and bunch from SE Texas, North Texas, and a few good folks from Corpus.

[double D]

Thanks Portastorm, it' good to be aboard. I joined towards the end of last winter so I did not post much, but enjoyed reading everyone's discussions and input. I look forward to be a part of this fall/winter discussions.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z GFS coming in. It still shows a burst of cold air shooting down the plains. It is not as cold as the 00Z frosty 30s in Houston, but it still shows very cold air with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s likely:

Front in TX (114hrs): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _114.shtml

Front clearing the coast (126 hrs): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

Friday morning looks cold (138 hrs): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
^^Looks like 30s in NE Texas, and lower to middle 40s in Houston (1020mb+ high sitting right over us)^^

Friday looks like a chilly one (150 hrs): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml
^^Wouldn't be surprised to see forecast highs adjusted downward^^

BTW: There also looks to be the risk of a HISTORIC blizzard in the northern plains and snow possibly into the central plains and NE from this system! This is Amazing for mid October!

[Yankeegirl]

It feels wonderful outside right now!!! 78 here!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

It feels wonderful outside right now!!! 78 here!!

that's for sure! With abundant sunshine, a nice north breeze, and temps. currently in the mid to upper 70s...it is a great day for being outdoors.

[Yankeegirl]

i know! i am about to go to the store,.. I would love to go get some plants, but i am broke....

[JenBayles]

Hey Yankee - I hear ya about the plants! Most places are either in the process of clearing out plant stock (including nurseries) and replacing it with Christmas stuff already. If you manage to find any plants worth buying, you'll probably find some good prices right now. I did manage to get my winter garden put it this year, so that's probably why the Weather Gods are sending us cold weather for a change. "What? Jen planted a winter veggie garden? Well, we'll just see about THAT!"

[JenBayles]

Yeah, I'm actually looking into one of those solar covers. One of my friends tells me his was very effective. A heater would be ideal, but it's very expensive these days...

Let me know if you get one of those solar covers - if they actually work, I wouldn't mind switching over to that instead of the heater myself.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest forecast from the (always biased warm) afternoon shift of the Houston NWS for Spring, TX:

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 71.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

I think we will see these numbers lowered a good 3-7F over the next few days though. Looking at the models, I just can not see how Friday would reach 78F.

My prediction at this time is for middle to upper 60s Thursday, lower to middle 40s Thursday night, and then upper 60s to lower 70s on Friday.

Overall though, this forecast from the afternoon-shift NWS is probably one of their better ones, because with it still being 5 days out; nothing is certain yet.

One thing is for sure though: Fall is going to arrive big time next week!

[Ptarmigan]

Here is the latest forecast from the (always biased warm) afternoon shift of the Houston NWS for Spring, TX:

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 71.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

I think we will see these numbers lowered a good 3-7F over the next few days though. Looking at the models, I just can not see how Friday would reach 78F.

My prediction at this time is for middle to upper 60s Thursday, lower to middle 40s Thursday night, and then upper 60s to lower 70s on Friday.

Overall though, this forecast from the afternoon-shift NWS is probably one of their better ones, because with it still being 5 days out; nothing is certain yet.

One thing is for sure though: Fall is going to arrive big time next week!

Nice weather for a change. October is usually the last time we see 90 degree temperature. November and December have none. I remember there were 90 degree temperatures in February in 1986 and 1996.

[JonathanBelles]

that last map forecasts 60 degrees here. id love to see that

[jasons2k]

Nice weather for a change. October is usually the last time we see 90 degree temperature. November and December have none. I remember there were 90 degree temperatures in February in 1986 and 1996.

Yep, when I lived in DFW it was customary to have our last 90* day sometime during the State Fair.
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We spent the afternoon at Old Town Spring. It's beautiful outside but we're done with the pool for the season.

Jen I will let you know on the solar cover, but it will probably be next year before I take the plunge. My friend said it worked a good 5-7 degrees, and extended his pool season into late October/November in Dallas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18Z GFS shows an intense 1027mb high sitting right over TX on Friday!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[Janie2006]

I agree. I'm just not seeing temperatures that warm for next Thursday/Friday based on the model output. I'd be pretty suspicious if it was just the GFS forecasting this scenario, but we've got good model agreement about this cold outbreak.

[double D]

Although the bulk of the cold air seems to go to the midwest and northeast, it still looks like this will be some of the coldest air for early October that I can remember. It really shows how powerful this system really is.

[Johnny]

I've been waiting for a front like this. I think I will take Thursday and half a day Friday off to sit in my tripod stand with my bow. Do any of y'all want any venison?

[brunota2003]

I've been waiting for a front like this. I think I will take Thursday and half a day Friday off to sit in my tripod stand with my bow. Do any of y'all want any venison?

You can pass some this way...my dad has been having bad luck hunting this year...the few times he has been able to get out there of course...if ya git any...I'll take some