Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 250901
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS...BUT THE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE MINIMAL. THE WINDS WERE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE MORNING WERE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S

FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...SKIES WILL CONTINUE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...TO INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

$$

[cycloneye]

There is a new invest 99L west of CV islands.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
325 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
LESS CONDUCIVE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

There is a new invest 99L west of CV islands.

You're right Cycloneye, while my untrained eyes are seeing an impressive complex of tstorms on the verge of exiting Africa...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

U

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND PROBABLY
MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND
AND WILL TEND TO CAP MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MORE THAN IT
APPEARED TO ME YESTERDAY AND MAY ALSO FORCE APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MUCH DRIER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND KUDOS TO SOME PREVIOUS SHIFTS FOR CORRECTLY
FORECASTING THIS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN "OVERALL DRIER
TREND" HAS INDEED COMMENCED AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR PRETTY DECENT CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...DESPITE MID LEVEL CAPPING...STILL
FEEL THAT DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD WORK
ON TYPICAL SEPTEMBER...LOW TO MID 70S...AND IN SOME CASES UPPER
70S SURFACE DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME
LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS...THIS NEW RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT NOW PROBABLY
PASSING FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND THEREFORE
EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THAN ANTICIPATED
EARLIER.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO EXTEND FROM HAITI
NORTHEASTWARD...AND...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
MESO SCALE OVER A LINE THAT NEARLY BI-SECTED THE ISLAND...CONVECTION
WAS ABLE TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM
VEGA BAJA TO ARECIBO AND SOUTH TO PONCE. RADAR SUGGESTED THAT
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS COULD HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE IN
THE MIMIC PRODUCT WAS AT A MINIMUM THE LAST 12 HOURS AND SAME
PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT A NEW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK OVER
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WOULD EXPECT VIGOROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO RETURN TO
MORE OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEW MOISTURE AND WILL
NOT LOWER POPS THAT WERE INHERITED. MOISTURE DID NOT LOOK AS GOOD
FOR SUNDAY THAN FORECASTS ISSUED YESTERDAY EVEN THOUGH DYNAMICS
STILL APPEAR STRONG AT UPPER LEVELS...BUT FORECAST SHOULD HOLD AS
STRONG HEATING IS STILL GENERATING CONSIDERABLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIGGEST IMPEDIMENT TO SUNDAY`S SHOWERS IS A
RATHER DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 260919
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2009

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR
DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
WATERS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND
AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THE
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE MORNING WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

AN AREA OF DRY AIR MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT...LIMITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO CONTINUE...WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. SIMILAR PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE
LOCAL WEATHER. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS OF 13 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260957
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...AND BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA BY
MONDAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL
HELP CAP/INHIBIT ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
DEPICTED A DRY SLOT NOW PLACE OVER AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE SLOWLY
REPLACED BY TONGUE OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AREA LATER
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE PWAT VALUES OVER
AREA...AND THEREFORE INCREASE CHANCES FOR MOSTLY EARLY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL LAYER
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO. THEREFORE MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CAP STILL EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING...
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO INDUCE AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVITY
HOWEVER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT WIDESPREAD. THE U.S.VIRGIN
ISLANDS CAN EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY AS FAIRLY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

WITH THE TUTT LOW SHIFTING TO OUR WEST AND UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST...THIS WOULD FAVOR A MORE DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS IN TURN WOULD MAKE
CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DECIDED HOWEVER TO STAY CONSERVATIVE
WITH AFTERNOON POPS...BECAUSE ALL DEPENDS ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF
MOISTURE TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE REGION.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST DRIER CONDITIONS
WITH TYPICAL MODERATE EASTERLIES TRADES AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LIMITED TO WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND VERY
LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ON THE LEE-SIDE OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BUT THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE AS MODELS BETTER ADJUST WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A FAIRLY DECENT AREA OF SAL AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT WAVE WHICH COULD MAKE IT TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK MAKING CONDITIONS EVEN DRIER...SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH 26/1600Z. AFT 26/1600Z...EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND OFF THE WESTERN
EDGES OF TISX AND TIST...TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJSJ
BETWEEN 26/1700Z-26/2300Z. TJSJ 26/0000Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING
INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
15K FEET...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE THAT LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED TRANQUIL SEAS WITH EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 13 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS...
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 20 20 30 40
STT 88 81 89 81 / 30 30 30 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 33.8W AT
26/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 575 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS IN AN AREA OF RATHER DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENSUING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N13W 8N23W 13N36W 8N60W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 12N20W
TO 6N21W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N48W TO
11N53W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ENTERING FROM
LOUISIANA OVER VERMILION BAY CONTINUING ALONG 27N96W INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO TO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND S OF
26N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE NE GULF JUST S OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA
EXTENDING AN AXIS SW TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FORCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS
FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND 84W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER HAITI
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER N BELIZE GIVING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN W TO SW UPPER WINDS AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 71W-83W
INCLUDING JAMAICA. AN UPPER RIDGE STILL EXTENDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO CENTRAL AMERICA OVER NICARAGUA
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN REMAINING RATHER CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS TO INLAND
OVER VENZUELA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
ATLC AND COMBINED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W 24N66W OVER HAITI INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING STRONG NE UPPER WINDS OVER THE W ATLC W
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W 27N67W TO 22N71W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING A LARGE AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 48W-64W AND
SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE
E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 23N E OF 50W. THE
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW YET ANOTHER SURGE OF SAHARAN
DUST COVERING THE FAR E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 14N-26 ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 30W...WHICH IS JUST TO THE E OF T.D.
EIGHT.

$$
WALLACE

[cycloneye]

Moved briefly to Talking Tropics forum from 10:29 AM to 11:41 AM.

A reminder to the Eastern Caribbean friends that our tent thread at Weather Attic forum will be open all year around,not only for the hurricane season,so dont forget to stop by,even on Christmas day or New Years day

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 34.8W AT
26/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 725 MILES...1170 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AN
INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 22W-26W. A NEW
PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF THE WAVE TO INCLUDE
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 15N-25N E OF 35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 18N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
60W-70W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGIONAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH HAS LIMITED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. LATEST 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING REVEALED PW
VALUES WERE NEAR 1.7 INCHES...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER COMPARED
TO LAST FIVE DAYS WHICH CONSISTENTLY THE PW VALUES WERE ABOVE 2.0
INCHES. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGES DUE TO THIS
FEATURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AS A
WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA DURING MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BE IN A
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON STARTING ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER..COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

WTNT33 KNHC 262031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
500 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2009

...DEPRESSION WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL WAVE...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
35.7 WEST OR ABOUT 795 MILES...1280 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.9N 35.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
500 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS WEAKENED TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS. WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION THAT IS CLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE...IT NO LONGER HAS A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CIRCULATION TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE REMNANT TROUGH OR
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCUR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 18.9N 35.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
926 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH EXPECTED TO FILL
AND LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT
MAINLY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY...
DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS...OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. MAINLY ISOLATED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH NO LARGE
SCALE WEATHER FEATURES TO NOTE. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN LINE
WITH THIS THINKING AND ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE THIS EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270832
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING...WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FINALLY LOOSING THE INFLUENCES OVER
THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONLY TYPICAL DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS THIS
MORNING...DEPICTED A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA...
EXTENDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ACCORDINGLY...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER LAND AREAS. AN AREA OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RATHER DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING PREDICTS
PWAT VALUES OF LESS THAN 1.8 INCHES FOR THE PERIOD...IN COMPARISON
WITH VALUES WELL ABOVE 2.0 INCHES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRIER MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED RAIN SYSTEMS...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION.

[Gustywind]

Hi everbody. Glad to see you posting daily Luis .

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 270904
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2009

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWER WERE NOTED BRUSHING PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS
OF ONE OR TOW OF THE ISLANDS. WINDS WERE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EXITED
THE MONA PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NOW JUST EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THESE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER TODAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4
FEET OR LESS TODAY.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTH ARE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA