SPC AC 301620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS IL/IND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...
...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
MCS TIED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
OVER NRN IL AT MID MORNING...WITH SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEING
REINFORCED FROM NEAR THE CHI METRO AREA SWWD INTO NRN MO AT 16Z.
MEANWHILE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL MN WILL MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/W-TX. EXPECT LEADING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DIURNAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MS/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS IL/WRN
IND DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION WITH LITTLE CAPPING LEFT BY PEAK
HEATING. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG UNDER 50-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL
JET AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE BECOME VERY
ACTIVE/WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION FROM THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR A
COMBINATION OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO
ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCSS/LARGER BOW ECHO SYSTEMS RACING ENEWD THROUGH
THE EVENING. SEVERE THREAT MAY TREND TOWARDS WIND DAMAGE AS PRIMARY
DANGER WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
ENHANCED WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL/BOW-HEAD STRUCTURES WELL AFTER
DARK. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
SEVERE THREAT IS MORE PROBLEMATIC...FARTHER NORTH NEARER THE SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH MOST
INSTABILITY AND GREATER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...
REGION WILL UNDERGO MODEST HEATING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID 50S/LOWER 60S THIS MORNING. INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT NEAR EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD THEREFORE SUPPORT
AN AREA OF STORMS EWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/WI AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI. WITH VERY COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO LIKELY EVOLVE AS SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.
...CENTRAL MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
TAIL END OF COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...BY EARLY EVENING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
DIMINISHING CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO AND FAR NRN OK. REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN SRN
EDGE OF STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SHEAR PROFILES FORECAST TO BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS.
ADDITIONAL STRONG MIXING AND WEAKENING OF CAP MAY ALSO SUPPORT
ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED MOIST CONVECTION INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR
WRN OK LATE TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD DOES NOT
WARRANT MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
...NRN PLAINS...
POCKET OF MID LEVEL COLD AIR AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW SHOULD SUPPORT A SEPARATE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS
OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN/NWRN IA. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK...LOW TOPPED STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY FUNNEL CLOUDS/BRIEF TORNADOES FROM LOW LEVEL
STRETCHING AND STRONG AMBIENT VORTICITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 05/30/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1631Z (12:31PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
Bunkertor wrote:So no change at all
Not really. Still 15 tornado, 45 wind, 30 hail (none of them hatched). The moisture return seems more than expected though since the MCS has self-destructed...
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Next severe outbreak - May 29-31 - Moderate risk today
SPC AC 301724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT/SAT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SAT AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MS VLY....
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE U.S. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST OF A LINGERING
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN
STATES...A RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...TO THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER OVER
THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHWEST TEXAS REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...LEADING TO THE SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
WITHIN THE EASTERN TROUGH...A FAIRLY DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH/EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...LIKELY
PRECEDED BY A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-LEVEL COLD
INTRUSION...WITH AT LEAST WEAK COOLING AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT...SEASONABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A FAIRLY BROAD
CYCLONIC BELT OF 40-50+ KT 500 MB FLOW. AND...THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AND
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
...NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
MODELS INDICATE THAT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
TROUGH...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE URBAN CORRIDOR
NORTHEAST OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA DURING
THE 31/18-21Z TIME FRAME...WHERE/WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING /BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT
500 MB/ JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE REGION... WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...NEAR A LINGERING 30 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY
850 MB JET CORE...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...S CNTRL PLAINS INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY IN
PRE-FRONTAL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
AND ALONG A SHARP LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INT0 THE OZARK PLATEAU. WEAK INHIBITION NORTH/EAST OF THE CAPPING
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ...AS
MID/UPPER FLOW TAKES ON AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE GENERALLY WEAK...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BECOME QUITE LARGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...WHERE STEEPER MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL EXIST...AND THERE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE THAT AN IMPULSE DIGGING WITHIN
RELATIVELY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
..KERR.. 05/30/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1747Z (1:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT/SAT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SAT AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MS VLY....
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE U.S. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST OF A LINGERING
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN
STATES...A RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...TO THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER OVER
THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHWEST TEXAS REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...LEADING TO THE SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
WITHIN THE EASTERN TROUGH...A FAIRLY DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH/EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...LIKELY
PRECEDED BY A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-LEVEL COLD
INTRUSION...WITH AT LEAST WEAK COOLING AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT...SEASONABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A FAIRLY BROAD
CYCLONIC BELT OF 40-50+ KT 500 MB FLOW. AND...THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AND
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
...NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
MODELS INDICATE THAT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
TROUGH...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE URBAN CORRIDOR
NORTHEAST OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA DURING
THE 31/18-21Z TIME FRAME...WHERE/WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING /BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT
500 MB/ JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE REGION... WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...NEAR A LINGERING 30 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY
850 MB JET CORE...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...S CNTRL PLAINS INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY IN
PRE-FRONTAL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
AND ALONG A SHARP LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INT0 THE OZARK PLATEAU. WEAK INHIBITION NORTH/EAST OF THE CAPPING
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ...AS
MID/UPPER FLOW TAKES ON AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE GENERALLY WEAK...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BECOME QUITE LARGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...WHERE STEEPER MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL EXIST...AND THERE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE THAT AN IMPULSE DIGGING WITHIN
RELATIVELY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
..KERR.. 05/30/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1747Z (1:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NERN SD...WCNTRL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301746Z - 301845Z
LATEST VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVER STUTSMAN COUNTY ND...DRIFTING SEWD WITHIN BROADER NWLY FLOW.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED AND DEEPENED...ESPECIALLY FROM
NERN SD INTO SWRN MN. THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY REMOVED...OR IS IN THE
PROCESS OF REMOVING...WHAT LITTLE INHIBITION WAS NOTED ON EARLY
MORNING SOUNDINGS. LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SEWD ALONG ERN EDGE OF
INSTABILITY PLUME INTO SWRN MN. SHEAR PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES COULD
DEVELOP WHERE UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH SFC BOUNDARY. WILL MONITOR
THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW.
..DARROW.. 05/30/2008
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...
46709699 46129520 45209463 44789614 45349691 46299784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NERN SD...WCNTRL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301746Z - 301845Z
LATEST VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVER STUTSMAN COUNTY ND...DRIFTING SEWD WITHIN BROADER NWLY FLOW.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED AND DEEPENED...ESPECIALLY FROM
NERN SD INTO SWRN MN. THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY REMOVED...OR IS IN THE
PROCESS OF REMOVING...WHAT LITTLE INHIBITION WAS NOTED ON EARLY
MORNING SOUNDINGS. LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SEWD ALONG ERN EDGE OF
INSTABILITY PLUME INTO SWRN MN. SHEAR PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES COULD
DEVELOP WHERE UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH SFC BOUNDARY. WILL MONITOR
THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW.
..DARROW.. 05/30/2008
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...
46709699 46129520 45209463 44789614 45349691 46299784
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Re: Next severe outbreak - May 29-31 - Moderate risk today
CrazyC83 wrote:SPC AC 301724
THIS MAY BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE URBAN CORRIDOR
NORTHEAST OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA DURING
THE 31/18-21Z TIME FRAME...WHERE/WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE.
Figures, as I'm still in Baltimore instead of at home in WI....
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 42
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_ ... 1&source=0
EF2 Tornado in Phelps, Kearney and Buffalo Counties
A storm survey team from the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Hastings surveyed the damage from one of two tornadoes in the Kearney area. The tornado surveyed initially touched down in Phelps County approximately four miles south of Odessa around 5:20 pm CDT. The tornado damaged a farmstead approximately one mile east of the Funk Odessa Road. Outbuildings and silos sustained the most damage. The tornado was the strongest at this initial point and was rated an EF2.
The tornado ’skipped’ along as it tracked to the east northeast into Kearney County and then into Buffalo County. The tornado weakened as it moved to the east northeast and damaged pipes and billboard signs along Interstate 80. This damage was rated as EF0. The tornado had a path length of 14 miles, a path width of 100 yards, and had an overall rating of EF2. There were no deaths or injuries from this tornado.
A description of the EF scale can be found here.
A second tornado struck the city of Kearney. Multiple tornadoes touched down across south central Nebraska and north Central Kansas with preliminary reports of these additional tornadoes located in Hall, Osborne, Hamilton, Thayer, Jewell, Mitchell, and Rooks Counties. NWS damage survey teams will be dispatched to survey the tornado damage on Friday and our website will be updated when further information is available.
The following map depicts the path of the tornado surveyed in Phelps, Kearney and Buffalo Counties.
EF2 Tornado in Phelps, Kearney and Buffalo Counties
A storm survey team from the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Hastings surveyed the damage from one of two tornadoes in the Kearney area. The tornado surveyed initially touched down in Phelps County approximately four miles south of Odessa around 5:20 pm CDT. The tornado damaged a farmstead approximately one mile east of the Funk Odessa Road. Outbuildings and silos sustained the most damage. The tornado was the strongest at this initial point and was rated an EF2.
The tornado ’skipped’ along as it tracked to the east northeast into Kearney County and then into Buffalo County. The tornado weakened as it moved to the east northeast and damaged pipes and billboard signs along Interstate 80. This damage was rated as EF0. The tornado had a path length of 14 miles, a path width of 100 yards, and had an overall rating of EF2. There were no deaths or injuries from this tornado.
A description of the EF scale can be found here.
A second tornado struck the city of Kearney. Multiple tornadoes touched down across south central Nebraska and north Central Kansas with preliminary reports of these additional tornadoes located in Hall, Osborne, Hamilton, Thayer, Jewell, Mitchell, and Rooks Counties. NWS damage survey teams will be dispatched to survey the tornado damage on Friday and our website will be updated when further information is available.
The following map depicts the path of the tornado surveyed in Phelps, Kearney and Buffalo Counties.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MO / C IL / W CENTRAL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301814Z - 302015Z
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NERN IL AND NRN
IN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
W CENTRAL IL AND OVER NRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS ACROSS NRN IL/MO. HIGHER VALUES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ADVECTED NEWD THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
IL AND WRN IND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT 18Z IN THE LOWER 60S AROUND
THE MICHIANA REGION TO NEAR 70 DEG F NEAR THE MS RIVER. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A CONTINUED BREAK-UP IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER PARTS OF IL AND MO AIDING IN FURTHER AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAKENING CAP. 17Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY A
WEAK CAP REMAINING...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW /17Z ILX RAOB 500MB 65 KTS/ OVERTOP A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE/...THIS IN TURN WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOW SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TOWARDS
EVENING...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
..SMITH.. 05/30/2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MO / C IL / W CENTRAL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301814Z - 302015Z
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NERN IL AND NRN
IN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
W CENTRAL IL AND OVER NRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS ACROSS NRN IL/MO. HIGHER VALUES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ADVECTED NEWD THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
IL AND WRN IND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT 18Z IN THE LOWER 60S AROUND
THE MICHIANA REGION TO NEAR 70 DEG F NEAR THE MS RIVER. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A CONTINUED BREAK-UP IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER PARTS OF IL AND MO AIDING IN FURTHER AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAKENING CAP. 17Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY A
WEAK CAP REMAINING...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW /17Z ILX RAOB 500MB 65 KTS/ OVERTOP A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE/...THIS IN TURN WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOW SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TOWARDS
EVENING...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
..SMITH.. 05/30/2008
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Re: Next severe outbreak - May 29-31 - Moderate risk today
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MO / C IL / W CENTRAL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301814Z - 302015Z
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NERN IL AND NRN
IN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
W CENTRAL IL AND OVER NRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS ACROSS NRN IL/MO. HIGHER VALUES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ADVECTED NEWD THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
IL AND WRN IND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT 18Z IN THE LOWER 60S AROUND
THE MICHIANA REGION TO NEAR 70 DEG F NEAR THE MS RIVER. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A CONTINUED BREAK-UP IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER PARTS OF IL AND MO AIDING IN FURTHER AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAKENING CAP. 17Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY A
WEAK CAP REMAINING...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW /17Z ILX RAOB 500MB 65 KTS/ OVERTOP A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE/...THIS IN TURN WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOW SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TOWARDS
EVENING...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
..SMITH.. 05/30/2008
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
39939141 40219042 41098731 41068663 40838625 40398626
39518797 38569042 38789122 39219153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MO / C IL / W CENTRAL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301814Z - 302015Z
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NERN IL AND NRN
IN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
W CENTRAL IL AND OVER NRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS ACROSS NRN IL/MO. HIGHER VALUES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ADVECTED NEWD THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
IL AND WRN IND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT 18Z IN THE LOWER 60S AROUND
THE MICHIANA REGION TO NEAR 70 DEG F NEAR THE MS RIVER. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A CONTINUED BREAK-UP IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER PARTS OF IL AND MO AIDING IN FURTHER AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAKENING CAP. 17Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY A
WEAK CAP REMAINING...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW /17Z ILX RAOB 500MB 65 KTS/ OVERTOP A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE/...THIS IN TURN WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOW SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TOWARDS
EVENING...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
..SMITH.. 05/30/2008
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
39939141 40219042 41098731 41068663 40838625 40398626
39518797 38569042 38789122 39219153
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Maybe a chance for a tornado near New york today:
NEW YORK CITY AREA DURING
THE 31/18-21Z TIME FRAME...WHERE/WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING /BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT
500 MB/ JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE REGION... WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...NEAR A LINGERING 30 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY
850 MB JET CORE...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
NEW YORK CITY AREA DURING
THE 31/18-21Z TIME FRAME...WHERE/WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING /BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT
500 MB/ JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE REGION... WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...NEAR A LINGERING 30 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY
850 MB JET CORE...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
140 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN REDWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 230 PM CDT
* AT 138 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WABASSO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WABASSO...
SPRINGFIELD...
MORGAN...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
140 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN REDWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 230 PM CDT
* AT 138 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WABASSO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WABASSO...
SPRINGFIELD...
MORGAN...
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Also:
WUUS53 KLOT 301852
SVRLOT
INC073-127-301915-
/O.NEW.KLOT.******.W.0031.080530T1850Z-080530T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
150 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 215 PM CDT...
* AT 145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF WHEATFIELD...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DUNNS BRIDGE BY 200 PM...
LAT...LON 4129 8694 4114 8694 4113 8714 4124 8716
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 266DEG 36KT 4115 8712
$$
MERZLOCK
WUUS53 KLOT 301852
SVRLOT
INC073-127-301915-
/O.NEW.KLOT.******.W.0031.080530T1850Z-080530T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
150 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 215 PM CDT...
* AT 145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF WHEATFIELD...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DUNNS BRIDGE BY 200 PM...
LAT...LON 4129 8694 4114 8694 4113 8714 4124 8716
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 266DEG 36KT 4115 8712
$$
MERZLOCK
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST OF JEFFERSON
CITY MISSOURI TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 393. WATCH NUMBER 393 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
155 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING ERASE CAP. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES THROUGH
THE EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AS
STORMS ORGANIZE INTO BOWING STRUCTURES THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...EVANS
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST OF JEFFERSON
CITY MISSOURI TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 393. WATCH NUMBER 393 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
155 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING ERASE CAP. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES THROUGH
THE EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AS
STORMS ORGANIZE INTO BOWING STRUCTURES THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...EVANS
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000
WUUS53 KMPX 301920
SVRMPX
MNC165-302000-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0045.080530T1920Z-080530T2000Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
220 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WATONWAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT
* AT 217 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF DARFUR...OR
ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF BUTTERFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA SALLE...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
LAT...LON 4411 9441 4407 9449 4404 9466 4402 9485
4408 9486 4411 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 254DEG 19KT 4410 9482
$$
MTF
WUUS53 KMPX 301920
SVRMPX
MNC165-302000-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0045.080530T1920Z-080530T2000Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
220 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WATONWAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT
* AT 217 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF DARFUR...OR
ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF BUTTERFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA SALLE...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
LAT...LON 4411 9441 4407 9449 4404 9466 4402 9485
4408 9486 4411 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 254DEG 19KT 4410 9482
$$
MTF
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Confirmed: Kearney was EF2
A storm survey team from the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Hastings has surveyed the damage from the tornado that struck the Kearney area on Thursday afternoon, May 29, 2008. It appears that multiple, brief tornado touchdowns occurred within the city between 5:20 and 5:30 pm CDT, causing primarily EF0 to EF1 damage. The most extensive damage in the Kearney area, rated EF2, was noted at the Buffalo County Fairgrounds Expo Center, and at the Kearney Regional Airport, where a hangar was destroyed.
A description of the EF scale can be found here.
A more detailed description of this event will be available later today.
Following are several photos taken by NWS Hastings personnel in the Kearney area during the damage survey on May 30, 2008
A storm survey team from the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Hastings has surveyed the damage from the tornado that struck the Kearney area on Thursday afternoon, May 29, 2008. It appears that multiple, brief tornado touchdowns occurred within the city between 5:20 and 5:30 pm CDT, causing primarily EF0 to EF1 damage. The most extensive damage in the Kearney area, rated EF2, was noted at the Buffalo County Fairgrounds Expo Center, and at the Kearney Regional Airport, where a hangar was destroyed.
A description of the EF scale can be found here.
A more detailed description of this event will be available later today.
Following are several photos taken by NWS Hastings personnel in the Kearney area during the damage survey on May 30, 2008
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