2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[cycloneye]

More videos of the Woodward Tornadoes. Here they caught twin tornadoes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... Iu3WNMLx-Q

[cycloneye]

Updated 2012 Stats

The 2012 numbers have been updated and the preliminary number of Tornadoes so far including the last April 14 big outbreak is 546. Cyclenall and Crazy,how to you see 2012 going in terms of activity compared with 2011?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mary.html#

Code: Select all

 2012 Total Torn Hail Wind
Jan 2012 554 97 92 365
Feb 2012 714 63 188 463
Mar 2012 1967 225 1146 596
Apr 2012 1104 161 580 363
May 2012 0 0 0 0
Jun 2012 0 0 0 0
Jul 2012 0 0 0 0
Aug 2012 0 0 0 0
Sep 2012 0 0 0 0
Oct 2012 0 0 0 0
Nov 2012 0 0 0 0
Dec 2012 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 4339 546 2006 1787


[cycloneye]

Day 4 Outlook issued on 4/18/12

Watch out those who live in Florida.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WRN GULF BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD AND A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INSIST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY4. WITH 50-70+KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED MCS/SQUALL LINE COULD ADVANCE ACROSS
THE REGION.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2012

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest update of the trend that the 2012 season is doing compared with past years.



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[cycloneye]

Day 3 outlook.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...FL...

WHILE THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ADHERES TO THE OVERALL TRENDS
OF EARLIER MODEL DATA REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NWRN GULF BASIN...A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND SWD SHIFT IS NOTED. IN
FACT THE LATEST GFS DIGS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND PREVENTS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SPREADING
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A BAND OF 50-60KT 500MB FLOW EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA BY 22/12Z. GIVEN THESE TRENDS
HAVE LOWERED THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE SERN U.S. TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED/PLACEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NOTED
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MORE THEN 5% PROBS.

[Cyclenall]

Here is the latest update of the trend that the 2012 season is doing compared with past years.



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That's what I wanted to see. We're ahead of 2011 in tornado reports so it goes back to the question, is this the tornado equivalent of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons? To anyone who doubts you can have 2 consecutive hyper-active seasons in a row, look at those years for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. 2011 and 2012 for twisters?

How did 2008 end up at the top? I remember it being very active obviously but after June I don't remember much yet the graph shows steadiness all-year round.

The models are hinting already at the next significant increase in activity by late next week and funny enough guess what date is in the mix? April 27 on the Friday. I had a hunch that date would see something again even though the odds are against it. We'll see where it lands. cycloneye, can you post the links to the long-range model outputs for the CMC and GFS for North America? I can't find the CMC one.

[cycloneye]

Cyclenall,here are the North America GFS and long range CMC.

GFS

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... L+GUIDANCE

CMC

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... =0&PERIOD=

[Cyclenall]

Thanks cycloneye.

[cycloneye]

Outlook for Saturday issued on 4/20/12

Those who live in SouthCentral Florida,watch out on Saturday for some severe weather.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST STATES...AND...BY SATURDAY...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN
CANADA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WITHIN
BROADER SCALE TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE.

ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RISK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION
SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT LIKELY TO BE APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE
GEORGIA/CAROLINA PIEDMONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE SEVERE.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD THAT PERSISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EVOLUTION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PERHAPS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE MAY REMAIN WEAK TO
MODEST IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF
30-40 KT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...IF NOT BEFORE...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE. AS THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY HAIL.

...CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... SUB-CLOUD LAPSE
RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE STEEP WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW
PROBABLY WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME WIND/SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL



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[RL3AO]

That's what I wanted to see. We're ahead of 2011 in tornado reports so it goes back to the question, is this the tornado equivalent of the 2003, 2004, 2005 hurricane seasons? To anyone who doubts you can have 3 consecutive hyper-active seasons in the row, look at those years for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. 2010, 2011, 2012 for twisters?

With radar, increased population, and an absurd increase in the amount of chasers, the statistic of number of tornadoes in a year is effectively meaningless for comparing to previous seasons/eras.

The only thing you can use to compare to previous seasons is number of strong/violent or violent tornadoes since an F3 was unlikely to be missed in the past unlike a weak F0/F1.

[brunota2003]

2010 was not hyper active...it is actually below the 05-11 average (by 5 reports). This time in 2010, we had only had 95 reports.

[cycloneye]

Outlook for Saturday April 21rst

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN FL
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY SATURDAY. A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CUTTING OFF FROM NRN BRANCH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE FL PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE NERN U.S. SWWD TO A
WEAK LOW OVER THE NWRN GULF EARLY SATURDAY WILL ADVANCE EWD DURING
THE PERIOD. BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SWWD TO A SFC LOW OVER THE NERN GULF.

...CNTRL AND SRN FL...

AS OF FRIDAY EVENING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PROGRESS OVER THE
ERN GULF AND WRN FL COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD IMPULSE. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN GULF AS ZONE OF DEEPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR IN THIS REGION.
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE GULF
SATURDAY...EVOLVING INTO AN MCS WITH CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF STORMS
ADVANCING EWD AND LIKELY AFFECTING THE FL PENINSULA. GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE LIKELY BELOW 1000
J/KG WHICH COULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER
SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST MAINLY FROM EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LLJ AND FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 40 KT AND 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...

POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR AOB 35 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS. DIABATIC
WARMING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT OVERALL THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 04/21/2012



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[Cyclenall]

With radar, increased population, and an absurd increase in the amount of chasers, the statistic of number of tornadoes in a year is effectively meaningless for comparing to previous seasons/eras.

The only thing you can use to compare to previous seasons is number of strong/violent or violent tornadoes since an F3 was unlikely to be missed in the past unlike a weak F0/F1.

I'm only comparing years that go back 2 years which is not much different than present. Also violent tornadoes are probably missed just as much as back then as tornadoes in fields only are almost never rated EF4+ even though many of us have a feeling some are pretty potent.

2010 was not hyper active...it is actually below the 05-11 average (by 5 reports). This time in 2010, we had only had 95 reports.

I'm taking in the whole year, not to this date. June started to pick up bigtime for that year.

What I'm noticing is the spacing of moderate/notable and major tornado outbreaks this year is in a rough interval of 14 days. There have been smaller events between of course but major uptick trends are around that. The next uptick is on track to continue that.

[brunota2003]

The below 5 reports is for the whole year.

[cycloneye]

Here is the updated trend as of April 20th for 2012 compared with the most past active severe seasons.

[cycloneye]

No big outbreaks are expected at least thru Friday.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
PERSISTENCE OF AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A SLOW GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/TOWARD THE PLAINS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD /DAYS 4-7/.

INITIALLY FOR DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY
EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SOUTHEAST MOVING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AS AN UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
INLAND ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
INITIALLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND UNCERTAIN SPECIFIC EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDE ANY 30 PERCENT SEVERE AREAS AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK-CALIBER SEVERE THREATS COULD EXIST
DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS/PERHAPS ROCKIES FRONT RANGE...AND INTO DAYS 6-7
FRIDAY/SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF KS/OK/NORTHWEST TX AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT
MO VALLEY.

..GUYER.. 04/22/2012

[Ntxw]

With a week to go and no foreseeable major outbreak, April will probably close out slightly above average in Tornado count. Far cry from last season's 700+ we'll probably end up between 150-200 (average being 155 and March may have been more active based on preliminary numbers) with no Ef5 recorded.

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

[cycloneye]

It looks like there will be plenty of cap to not allow a big severe weather outbreak to occur this week.

[Brandon8181]

Cycloneye,

Can you explain the map you posted a little bit?

I understand "cap" as a layer of warm air aloft that prohibits or minimizes severe thunderstorm development..

What exactly is the map showing? Where on twisterdata do I click to get that map?

Thank you,
Brandon

[brunota2003]

The map is showing CIN...or Convective Inhibition (if I remember right?). The closer to 0 (the top of the scale) the weaker the cap (so the weaker the updraft can be to "punch" through). As you can see, there is a large area that is 90 to 100 and greater...a very strong cap!