Caribbean - Central America Weather

[bvigal]

Beautiful morning here with NO HAZE, which is unique the last month! Sun is shining, winds very light. Looks like a good beach day, I envy the tourists today! Very pleasant 81degrees and pressure is high, 30.05 in. Hg (1017 hPa).

All eyes are on sat east of Barbados, where convection is building along top of wave that is 96L. Wave passed buoy 41040 yesterday with barely a drop in pressure (29.96):
07 11 2250 E 21.4 25.3 8.9 9 5.8 - 29.98 +0.02 82.0 82.0 72.1 - - -
07 11 2150 ENE 21.4 25.3 8.9 9 5.9 - 29.96 -0.01 82.0 82.0 73.2 -

Next buoy at 56W had winds 25kt early am, still nothing remarkable. However, that was before this cluster of thunderstorms started to build, so still possible the islands may get some good winds with this wave. We'll be watching!

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 121133
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
733 AM AST WED JUL 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH
OF THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS BETWEEN PUERTO
RICO AND THE ABC ISLANDS.

AT MID LEVELS...DRY AIR WILL DOMINATES THE REGION AND THE WIND
FLOW WILL BE TODAY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AT LOW LEVELS...PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW. THIS MOISTURE SHALL COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EL YUNQUE AND VICINITY AREAS AND OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST AND BY
MIDDAY SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DIFFERENT INTENSITIES FROM TIME TO TIME TO THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA RADIO AND THE
NWS PRODUCTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS TROPICAL WAVE AS ITS
ADVANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND FOR POSSIBLE AREAL FLASH
FLOODING ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS.



Good morning to all.Sunny skies here this morning with a moderate breeze.Watching that wave to see what effects it will have in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

[cycloneye]

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST WED JUL 12 2006

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FORMED ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
THE ISLANDS...AND PRODUCED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS. THESE SHOWERS EXTENDED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS
WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THURSDAY...AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
THIS WAVE...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF URBAN AND GUT FLOODING. MUDSLIDES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

$$


Today it was beautiful with blue skies.Yes there were early morning showers but after that it was sunny with a moderate breeze.But as you an see at summary above things will change tomorrow as the wave gets closer,although the main part will pass south of the NE Caribbean islands.

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Caribbean members.Today will see the wave passage mainly to our south but anyway we can expect scattered showers with some gusty winds.Nothing going on last night here with a beautiful sunny skies morning.

[bvigal]

Good morning, neighbors! Yesterday as the wave passed, we had one very strong squall line come through here about 11am, with very strong gusts that heeled boats over to the rail, even without sails. After that, the sky cleared to bright blue with a few scattered clouds. Later in the afternoon it got hazy again. We had some more light scattered showers in the evening.

This morning the dust is really thick with visibility about 7miles. Temp is 82, pressure 1016, dewpoint 73, winds light from E.

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Eastern Caribbean members.Nothing occured last night in San Juan as the wave passed.This morning hazy skies are the rule with a light east breeze.

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Caribbean members.A hazy day here with only one shower early this morning.Nothing big heading this way during the weekend so let's enjot it.Have a nice weekend.

[bvigal]

Good morning! Haze here so thick you can practically cut it with a knife!

Tropical wave previously mapped at 42W is now at 51W, with good signature, and convection 17-19N...
8amTWD
...TROPICAL WAVES...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN AND
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 17N-19N. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN PASS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. GFS STILL APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT TUTT SHOULD
BE IN A BETTER LOCATION TO MORE FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
THE PAST FEW WAVES. BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE...ANOTHER "OVERALL"
DRIER...MORE STABLE AND HAZY AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.



Above is discussion about that wave for tuesday from the San Juan NWS.

Good Morning fellow Caribbean members.Hazy skies prevail here with temps around the high 80's to low 90's.Waiting for wave on tuesday for some rain and winds.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST MON JUL 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FA TODAY. AS A RESULT...ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNALLY
INDUCED CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INERIOR...WEST....
AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. MUCH OF THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FA ON TUESDAY. EXTENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEPENDS ON THE
POSITION OF THE TUTT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE TUTT
WILL RETROGRADE...AND BE POSITIONED WEST OF THE LOCAL FA. IF THIS
VERIFIES...IT WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL FA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS INDICATING SLIGHT WESTWARD MOVEMENT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING SO FAR. AS A RESULT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

&&


Good morning fellow Caribbean members.Above is discussion from San Juan NWS about the wave.Nothing important has occured here overnight.A sunny morning here with less haze compared to the weekend.

[bvigal]

Good morning all!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST TUE JUL 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE U.S.V.I.
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ONLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HELP FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE.
THIS UNSTABLE AIR...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL HELP FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. MANY
AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED...AS WELL
AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS
TODAY AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES IN STREAM LEVELS
AND FLOWS...EVEN IF THE RAINFALL IS NOT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

.MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SQUALLS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY...AND WILL CREATE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. MARINERS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT TO THE APPROACHING SQUALLS AS THEY WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS.

Our winds are still NE, but expect them to shift s'ward as wave crosses. It seems to be moving very slowly. Radar is showing squalls to our east, so we'll definitely have some rain from this one. I sure hope it isn't too bad in PR where the ground is already saturated!

Current Weather Conditions:
Charlotte Amalie St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport, Virgin Islands
(TIST) 18-20N 064-59W
Conditions at Jul 18, 2006 - 06:53 AM
Wind from the NE (050 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly clear
Temperature 82.0 F (27.8 C)
Dew Point 73.0 F (22.8 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.98 in. Hg (1015 hPa)

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Waiting to wave axis to cross PR later today.Let's see how mych rain will fall here.Yes bvigal,we dont need much rain as grounds are saturated so let's see what happens.Watching to our far east that wave.

[bvigal]

Hmm, nearing noon, and it looks like all the precip has gone "poof". We didn't have one drop this morning. Winds are now almost due north. I think the wave is well past here already.

[cycloneye]

Good morning,fellow Caribbean members.Last night it was a wild one in San Juan with lighting and thunder with a heavy shower.All of that occured around 8:00 PM.This morning ,hazy skies combined with cirrus clouds dominate the scene.

[caribepr]

Uh oh!!!! This is part of the local discussion.

The wave is embedded in a Saharan airmass
(relatively drier and more stable)...so while shower activity will
be enhanced...we are not expecting a large rain event from this
wave passage.

If these forecasts follow any sort of trend...does this mean we should be on the lookout for really heavy rains????

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Nothing major occured overnight here.A hazy with partly cloudu skies are the rule this morning.From now on our eyes should be peeled to our east as things will start to heat up as August rolls in.

[bvigal]

Uh oh!!!! This is part of the local discussion.

The wave is embedded in a Saharan airmass
(relatively drier and more stable)...so while shower activity will
be enhanced...we are not expecting a large rain event from this
wave passage.

If these forecasts follow any sort of trend...does this mean we should be on the lookout for really heavy rains????

Good one MJ!

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all the caribbean members.The weekend was very good here with plenty of sunshine with haze.This week will be a bit more rainy as a low pressure wave approaches by late wednesday to thursday.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 251945
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST TUE JUL 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) DEPICTED AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST OVER THE AREA ALSO EVIDENT AT NAKED EYES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE ESTIMATED ALONG 51 WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS WELL
DEFINED BUT NOT TOO ACTIVE AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED BY OTHERS THIS WAVE IS LINKED TO A SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN
DUST CLOUD ALSO EVIDENT IN THE (SAL). SOME SPINNING WAS NOTED IN
THE CLOUD PATTERN SHOWN BY SATELLITE IMAGERY.

ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE AN INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING EARLY THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE DAY. A TAIL OF MOIST AIR WAS ALSO NOTED TO THE EAST OF THE
AXIS. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LINGERING WET WEATHER REGIME AFTER THE
WAVE PASSAGE. AS FAR AS I CAN PERCEIVE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

IF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT THE ACTUAL SPEED RAINFALL WILL
NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT BUT A SLOW DOWN IN THE FORWARD SPEED MAY
BRING SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35 N WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
TROPICAL WAVE AROUND 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THURSDAY AND MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE
WINDS AND SEAS AS WELL AS HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...SOME MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT HIGH SEAS
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED TO AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE
WAVE...HOWEVER I KEPT SAME SCENARIO AS BEFORE

Good afternoon fellow Caribbean members.Above is discussion about what to expecxt from the wave.Blue sunny skies and a ENE breeze dominated in this holiday day here.

[caribepr]

It was incredibly beautiful here today, no haze, lots of breeze, lots of happy holiday people. I don't mind the rain if it comes as I'm housesitting for someone with more plants than me and doing both places is tiring!