SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

[Extremeweatherguy]

weird trend with the GFS the last few days. Seems like the 0Z and 12Z runs are always very cold, while the 6Z and 18Z are always less bullish. However, even the less bullish runs are trending cooler and this morning's 6Z still brings the 0C 850 line into NE Texas on Friday morning. It is pretty obvious a cool down is on the way, but just how cold all depends on what scenario is correct.

Now it is time to see if the 12Z will once again look colder..

BTW: The 00Z GFS surface numbers showed falling temps. on Thursday, lows into the 30s on Thursday night and highs in the low to mid 60s on Friday. So, something that cold is still not out of the question. we will have to see if the 12Z follows this trend.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18Z GFS run is one of the warmest upper air runs I have seen yet (also it has a 4mb weaker high). The difference, however, is it now shows overrunning rain showers and clouds for Friday. If this is the case, then that means Friday will probably never get out of the 60s. In fact, it could be in the 50s for a good portion of the day (according to the model). So basically, this run cancels some of the cold upper air and replaces it with cold shallow air and rain. Could get interesting if this scenario plays out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
^^model shows overrunning showers and temps. in the 50s during midday Friday. (The 10C line represents where it has temps. in the 40s).^^

[Extremeweatherguy]

well the GFS flips again. The new 0Z looks very warm with most of the cold air staying well to our NE.

However, I do not believe this scenario and will wait for this to become a 3-4 run trend before buying into it.

[jasons2k]

Look at the Euro, it has been more consistent. The GFS will bite you every time.

[Portastorm]

Look at the Euro, it has been more consistent. The GFS will bite you every time.

... and the latest Euro (0z) I have seen for this weekend ... is chilly and wet. 50s and 60s with very high moisture levels throughout the column.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yes, you guys are right, I just checked out the last few runs of the Euro and it is much more consistant. Looks like a chilly, wet end of the week and weekend with another reinforcing front coming through next Monday.

[JenBayles]

YYYYEEEEEESSSSS!

[jasons2k]

Look at the Euro, it has been more consistent. The GFS will bite you every time.

... and the latest Euro (0z) I have seen for this weekend ... is chilly and wet. 50s and 60s with very high moisture levels throughout the column.

Hey Portastorm,

Yep, it looks like a nice fall/October weekend shaping up. A litttle cool and damp, but nothing terribly cold. I'm sure it will have some more bite to it up there.

[gboudx]

What's a good link to the extended Euro?

[Stratosphere747]

What's a good link to the extended Euro?

http://www.ecmwf.int/

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/index.html

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/

[Yankeegirl]

Nice.. a cold wet weekend is what I remember growing up in RI.... I really miss those days!! Dont get too many of those kind of days down here...

[gboudx]

Thanks Stratosphere747!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

AT 12 PM on 10/9/06

Amarillo 46 Degrees

Corpus Christi 84 Degrees

Almost a 40 degree spread.

A temperature spread that would make the stongest Arctic front in Dec/Jan/ Feb proud. Can you imagine if this front did come in during that time span??

[Yankeegirl]

This is the forecast for the end of the week... They did change it up a bit, Thursday was supposed to be cooler and now its Friday, but Friday is cooler then what the previously had up there for the past few days... Looks like the temp trend is going down!!

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 84.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.

[PTrackerLA]

I was hoping for a big arctic blast with low temps in the low 40s, clear skies, and cool days. Unfortunately it looks like it will be much warmer and wet...we do need the rain however and we can expect this to happen alot this fall/winter season due to El Nino .

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was hoping for a big arctic blast with low temps in the low 40s, clear skies, and cool days. Unfortunately it looks like it will be much warmer and wet...we do need the rain however and we can expect this to happen alot this fall/winter season due to El Nino .

it would make for an interesting winter though. A similar situation during December or January could be 20 degrees colder. Instead of highs in the middle 60s and lows in the lower 50s with rain...it might be highs in the middle 40s and lows in the lower 30s. Sounds like if this trend continues...the risk of winter precip. may be quite elevated this season.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This is the forecast for the end of the week... They did change it up a bit, Thursday was supposed to be cooler and now its Friday, but Friday is cooler then what the previously had up there for the past few days... Looks like the temp trend is going down!!

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 84.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.

Allow me to do a little GFS bashing. Again this is the NWS offices jumping at the latest run. My bet it come's earlier as it is already cooling down in Amarillo.

[vbhoutex]

I was hoping for a big arctic blast with low temps in the low 40s, clear skies, and cool days. Unfortunately it looks like it will be much warmer and wet...we do need the rain however and we can expect this to happen alot this fall/winter season due to El Nino .

Yep!!! Almost a definition of El Nino in the South during the "winter" months.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is the forecast for the end of the week... They did change it up a bit, Thursday was supposed to be cooler and now its Friday, but Friday is cooler then what the previously had up there for the past few days... Looks like the temp trend is going down!!

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 84.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.

Allow me to do a little GFS bashing. Again this is the NWS offices jumping at the latest run. My bet it come's earlier as it is already cooling down in Amarillo.

could be.

One thing I remember the GFS doing a lot is to show a MAJOR outbreak of cold air at 7-8 days out, then when 3-4 days out it makes it look a lot warmer with most of the energy going east, and then at 1-2 days out it cools down again. IMO, we will end up cooler than the latest few GFS runs, but not as cool as the original runs a few days ago. That is what usually happens.

[PTrackerLA]

You're right EWG. We normally have an elevated chance of frozen precip during El Nino years due to the upcoming system occuring during winter. I've heard this discussed quite a bit by local meteorologists.

Also, after checking the latest climate info, we have a deficit of 14.27" of rain for the year. I guess I've been so used to it being unusually dry the past two years I don't even notice the deficits we've been running. Let it rain!