SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???
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Severe and flash flood threat developing this afternoon through Wednesday midday.
Discussion:
Stationary upper low over SE NM has moved little in the last 24 hours with pieces of energy rotating around the low firing off thunderstorms. Local air mass has recovered from large MCS yesterday and with surface heating this morning will become unstable by noon. Water vapor shows at least 3 impulses rotating around the upper low. The first is progressing through our NW counties, the second is just W of CRP, and the third is over far W TX. Air mass will continue to heat and moisten today with PWS climbing to around 1.5 inches which is close to 150% above normal for this time of year. Expect once trigger temps in the low 70’s are reached thunderstorms will rapidly develop ahead of CRP impulse. Expect storms to form in multi-cell clusters and cross the region form SW to NE this afternoon and evening.
Tonight into Wednesday:
Main event lining up for tonight into Wednesday as upper low begins to get a move on. Strong dynamics, moisture feed, and mesoscale boundaries spell a rough night will be in store for the area. Strong convective development looks to occur this evening over central TX as forcing from upper low approaches from W TX. Expect favorable 0-6km shear values to support rapid cell organization and upscale growth in large MCS feature. Strong low level feed develops off the Gulf after sunset in combination with nocturnal cooling resulting in very favorable moisture pooling and speed convergence into MCS. Expect MCS to slow as it moves into our area with the threat of flash flooding increasing through the night. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through Wednesday midday, however the main threat will be the threat of excessive rainfall
Rainfall
HPC has the area pegged with a widespread 2 inches this afternoon and overnight with isolated amounts of 5 inches. Given already wet grounds run-off magnitude of such rainfall will be significant. Flash Flood Guidance for Harris and surrounding counties is 1.9 inches for 1hr and 2.3 inches for 3 hr. Given rich high PW air mass and the threat for cell training and very high hourly rainfall rates flash flooding is a good possibility along with resultant river rises and possible flooding. Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed during the day today.
Severe:
Increasing low level shear and dynamics aloft associated with 70-80kt sub-tropical jet plume on SE side of upper low support a severe weather threat. All severe modes will be possible with damaging winds being the most likely given the magnitude of the nosing jet stream. A few weak tornadoes will also be supported given the backed low level winds and potential for low level boundaries to enhance 0-1km helicity values. Expect at least a couple of weather watch boxes.
Discussion:
Stationary upper low over SE NM has moved little in the last 24 hours with pieces of energy rotating around the low firing off thunderstorms. Local air mass has recovered from large MCS yesterday and with surface heating this morning will become unstable by noon. Water vapor shows at least 3 impulses rotating around the upper low. The first is progressing through our NW counties, the second is just W of CRP, and the third is over far W TX. Air mass will continue to heat and moisten today with PWS climbing to around 1.5 inches which is close to 150% above normal for this time of year. Expect once trigger temps in the low 70’s are reached thunderstorms will rapidly develop ahead of CRP impulse. Expect storms to form in multi-cell clusters and cross the region form SW to NE this afternoon and evening.
Tonight into Wednesday:
Main event lining up for tonight into Wednesday as upper low begins to get a move on. Strong dynamics, moisture feed, and mesoscale boundaries spell a rough night will be in store for the area. Strong convective development looks to occur this evening over central TX as forcing from upper low approaches from W TX. Expect favorable 0-6km shear values to support rapid cell organization and upscale growth in large MCS feature. Strong low level feed develops off the Gulf after sunset in combination with nocturnal cooling resulting in very favorable moisture pooling and speed convergence into MCS. Expect MCS to slow as it moves into our area with the threat of flash flooding increasing through the night. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through Wednesday midday, however the main threat will be the threat of excessive rainfall
Rainfall
HPC has the area pegged with a widespread 2 inches this afternoon and overnight with isolated amounts of 5 inches. Given already wet grounds run-off magnitude of such rainfall will be significant. Flash Flood Guidance for Harris and surrounding counties is 1.9 inches for 1hr and 2.3 inches for 3 hr. Given rich high PW air mass and the threat for cell training and very high hourly rainfall rates flash flooding is a good possibility along with resultant river rises and possible flooding. Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed during the day today.
Severe:
Increasing low level shear and dynamics aloft associated with 70-80kt sub-tropical jet plume on SE side of upper low support a severe weather threat. All severe modes will be possible with damaging winds being the most likely given the magnitude of the nosing jet stream. A few weak tornadoes will also be supported given the backed low level winds and potential for low level boundaries to enhance 0-1km helicity values. Expect at least a couple of weather watch boxes.
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Severe weather is beginning to break out near San Antonio:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1159 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
ATASCOSA
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR FM 791 IN SOUTHERN ATASCOSA COUNTY. THIS STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...AND WILL REACH
CAMPBELLTON BY 12:15 PM. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MOTORISTS ARE
ADVISED TO USE ADDITIONAL CAUTION.
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- ncupsscweather
- Category 1
- Posts: 321
- Age: 38
- Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:05 pm
- Location: Hickory,North Carolina
urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 60
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2007
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
central and northern Texas
Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until
700 PM CDT.
Hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south
southeast of Hondo Texas to 5 miles north northeast of Sherman
Texas. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated
watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou0).
Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.
Discussion... scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify
across central and north TX through the afternoon... along
instability axis and where pockets of sunshine are aiding threat.
Low level shear is rather weak. However... sufficient deep layer
vertical shear and moderate cape values indicate a risk of hail and
damaging winds in stronger storms.
Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm
motion vector 22030.
... Hart
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
the storms seem to be building and are gaining a slightly more eastward component with time. Could this be a squall line or MCS setting up for this evening I wonder?
Here is an animated radar:
[web]http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=HGX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999[/web]
and here is a look at the current lightning activity:

Here is an animated radar:
[web]http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=HGX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999[/web]
and here is a look at the current lightning activity:

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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
243 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT SPC TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE COME TRUE.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TX LATER THIS EVENING. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING AS THE 500MB LOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX OPENS UP AS A TROUGH AND MOVES EASTWARD
TONIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTIONS WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FELL WITH THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY MON MORNING. WILL GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE. EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TONIGHT...BELIEVE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ESPECIALLY
IN STRONG UPDRAFTS...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
EVENING AS THE TROUGH ACROSS EAST TX CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS EAST TX INTO THURSDAY AND KEEP THE CWA
DRIER UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TX LATE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY FRI EVENING PROVIDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 32
&&
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- JenBayles
- Category 5
- Posts: 3461
- Age: 62
- Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2003 3:27 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Wow - that radar is really looking ugly west of Houston. Did y'all catch this one?
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC031-053-171-259-265-299-132300-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
238 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
BURNET
LLANO
GILLESPIE
BLANCO
KERR
KENDALL
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT
* AT 236 PM CDT...RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE WARNING
AREA.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SUNRISE BEACH VILLAGE...
MEADOWLAKES...MARBLE FALLS...LLANO...KINGSLAND...INKS LAKE STATE
PARK...HORSESHOE BAY...GRANITE SHOALS...ENCHANTED ROCK STATE
PARK...CASTELL...BURNET AND BUCHANAN DAM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DUE TO PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL...THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
BE QUICK TO RUNOFF AND CAUSE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD CREEKS, STREAMS, STREET
INTERSECTIONS, CULVERTS AND UNDERPASSES. LOW LYING PLACES THAT
NORMALLY FLOOD COULD BECOME DEATH TRAPS. DO NOT CROSS ANY FLOODED
AREA. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.
WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.
LAT...LON 3003 9960 2997 9911 2980 9869 3089 9799
3105 9821 3085 9835 3084 9878
$$
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC031-053-171-259-265-299-132300-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
238 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
BURNET
LLANO
GILLESPIE
BLANCO
KERR
KENDALL
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT
* AT 236 PM CDT...RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE WARNING
AREA.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SUNRISE BEACH VILLAGE...
MEADOWLAKES...MARBLE FALLS...LLANO...KINGSLAND...INKS LAKE STATE
PARK...HORSESHOE BAY...GRANITE SHOALS...ENCHANTED ROCK STATE
PARK...CASTELL...BURNET AND BUCHANAN DAM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DUE TO PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL...THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
BE QUICK TO RUNOFF AND CAUSE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD CREEKS, STREAMS, STREET
INTERSECTIONS, CULVERTS AND UNDERPASSES. LOW LYING PLACES THAT
NORMALLY FLOOD COULD BECOME DEATH TRAPS. DO NOT CROSS ANY FLOODED
AREA. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.
WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.
LAT...LON 3003 9960 2997 9911 2980 9869 3089 9799
3105 9821 3085 9835 3084 9878
$$
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- southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
246 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
...FLOODING RAINS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
.CARIBBEAN AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO, GENTLY ASCENDING AND POOLING UPON APPROACHING THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES. CONSEQUENTLY, BOTH DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE. THE ONLY INGREDIENT NEEDED IS LIFT.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT, CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS, WILL BEGIN ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY THIS EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL GIVE A
SIGNIFICANT BOOST TO THE ASCENDING CARIBBEAN AIR. WIDESPREAD RAIN,
HEAVY AT TIMES, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER, WILL
BE THE RESULT. THE BULK OF THIS WEATHER WILL BE FELT ON WEDNESDAY.
LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-140915-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.A.0002.070314T1200Z-070315T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
246 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...
ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION AND VERNON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE AND TYLER.
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
* LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING OUT OF WEST TEXAS WILL PASS OVER
LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT ATTENDING THIS LOW WILL
INITIATE AND MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
* MEAN RAINFALL TOTALS, ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA, TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE
EXTREME AT TIMES, RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
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- Yankeegirl
- Category 5
- Posts: 3417
- Age: 49
- Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
- Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
- Contact:
[marq=right].... and so it begins.... [/marq]
[marq=right]Flood Watch[/marq]
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
TXZ176>178-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-140430-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0002.070313T2100Z-070314T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-SAN JACINTO-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...
LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...
TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...
WILLIS...WINNIE
320 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND
WHARTON.
* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
* AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS EAST TEXAS TONIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
* DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED QUICKLY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER MAY ENGULF YOUR
VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP THEM AWAY. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND.
[marq=right]Flood Watch[/marq]
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
TXZ176>178-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-140430-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0002.070313T2100Z-070314T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-SAN JACINTO-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...
LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...
TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...
WILLIS...WINNIE
320 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND
WHARTON.
* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
* AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS EAST TEXAS TONIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
* DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED QUICKLY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER MAY ENGULF YOUR
VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP THEM AWAY. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND.
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- Yankeegirl
- Category 5
- Posts: 3417
- Age: 49
- Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
- Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
- Contact:
NO kidding.... It is really looking nasty just out to the west of us... all those reds and oranges.... Sucks that it always seems to flood at night when its dark out.... I look forward to watching the news in the morning to see all the people that tried to go through the high waters... and the reporters out in their waist high boots walking around in it....
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-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3772
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
- Contact:
Dont be surprised to see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued this evening...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
OVERNIGHT...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MAY EVOLVE AND MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPER TX COAST WITH ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD FAVOR SRN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
OVERNIGHT...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MAY EVOLVE AND MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPER TX COAST WITH ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD FAVOR SRN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST.
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- jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 8245
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
- Location: The Woodlands, TX
Intewresting discussion from the SPC. I guess all the convection to the south may be having an impact (i.e., stabilizing the atmosphere and cutting off inflow) as I was concerned about earlier. Although -- it looks like there is a small slot of undisturbed air between Houston and Matagorda which will need to be watched carefully as heating is maximized and we head towards rush hour. This area is just to our SW so any storms that form there have the potential to move into the metro area between 4-8PM.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60...
VALID 132035Z - 132200Z
STORMS/LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS WW.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW...AND HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW -- WHERE A
COMMENSURATE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY IS NOTED. MEANWHILE...STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING/MOVING EWD INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO
W/SW OF DRT -- WITHIN UNDISTURBED/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS N TX AND ADJACENT
SRN OK...THREAT HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF WW WHERE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO EXIST FROM THE SWRN QUARTER OF WW WWD TOWARD DRT...WHERE A WEAK
DRY LINE APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WHICH HAS NOW
BEGUN PROGRESSING EWD. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION ACROSS THIS
REGION IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
POSSIBLE NEW WW...OR THE POSSIBLE ADDITION OF SEVERAL COUNTIES W OF
WW 60 INTO THIS WW.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60...
VALID 132035Z - 132200Z
STORMS/LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS WW.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW...AND HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW -- WHERE A
COMMENSURATE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY IS NOTED. MEANWHILE...STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING/MOVING EWD INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO
W/SW OF DRT -- WITHIN UNDISTURBED/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS N TX AND ADJACENT
SRN OK...THREAT HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF WW WHERE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO EXIST FROM THE SWRN QUARTER OF WW WWD TOWARD DRT...WHERE A WEAK
DRY LINE APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WHICH HAS NOW
BEGUN PROGRESSING EWD. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION ACROSS THIS
REGION IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
POSSIBLE NEW WW...OR THE POSSIBLE ADDITION OF SEVERAL COUNTIES W OF
WW 60 INTO THIS WW.
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