Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 62.0W AT
08/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 110 NM N-NE OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 56W-61W. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW CYCLONIC CURVATURE S OF
13N IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER A
VERY LIMITED AREA SURROUNDING THE WAVE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
19W-23W AS SAHARAN DUST IS LOCATED N OF 10N E OF 30W TO THE W
AFRICA COAST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 22 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
54W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE
WAVE LIES IN A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 15N AS OBSERVED IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ARE CONFINING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 12N20W 10N23W 6N38W
7N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
30N85W COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND STATE OF FLORIDA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. WIND FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOST OF
THE GULF WITH SELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS AND UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NRN FLORIDA SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO THE BIG BEND REGION AND OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE FRONT
REMAINS DRY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE WRN GULF EAST OF A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. PLAINS WITH
A COLD FRONT POISED TO ENTER THE NW GULF FRIDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 72W IS UNDER E-NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER N OF A LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE WWD TO THE CENTRAL
NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 13N84W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED
GENERALLY S OF 15N AS NOTED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
AND COUPLED WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
77W-84W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NRN COLOMBIA THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE TO 21N66W. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MOIST SLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-72W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONG WINDS LOCATED ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL NORTH
ATLC WATERS NE OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. FARTHER TO THE NW OVER THE W ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF AND
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO 60W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER THE TAIL
END OF A WRN ATLC COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
BERMUDA AND EXTENDS WSW TO 30N77W...THEN CONTINUES WWD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT AND A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER
THE W ATLC...SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION REMAIN N OF 32N
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. CENTERED ON A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
26N45W...THE RIDGE EXTENDS NE TO A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
31N30W AND BEYOND 32N27W. A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE IS
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N37W TO 32N37W. THIS TROUGH
IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
AXIS FROM 24N46W TO BEYOND 32N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
25N-32N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[msbee]

Barbara,I dont see a lot of rain with this as it moves westward,only some scattered showers.

That's exactly what we had, Luis... a few scattered showers.. Skies are blue and the sun has been shining for most of the day now.

[Gustywind]

Very dry month of September in terms of amount of water in Guadeloupe, given Meteo-France's datas (latest). Same remark even worst...and it's an euphemisma for you my friends in the Northern Leewards Msbee. Nothing serious since Erika to bring significant rain for our vegetation, but hope for October to have a little more.
Here is the link. http://www.meteo.gp/clic.php?url=http:/ ... mtguad.htm
Regards
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 081908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST THU OCT 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI LOCATED
NEAR 19.8 NORTH 62.0 WEST AT 11 AM AST...CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WEST AROUND 13 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND WERE NOW NEAR 35 MPH BASED ON INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI. HENRI IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND BECOME OPEN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT CONTINUES
WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 56 WEST
WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LARGE AREA OF SAL/DRY AIR
TRAILING THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SINK
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL DRY AND SUBSIDENCE AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER AREA TODAY...LIMITED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS IS ISOLATED SPOTS
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.

AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AND AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY
PASSING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY AS REMNANTS FROM HENRI MERGES
WITH THAT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR DAYTIME AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS IN TURN WOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AND
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE LOCAL LEVEL WIND FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS FILTERS IN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH ONLY PASSING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME THAT COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER THE USVI.

FOR NOW THROUGH 08/22Z...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
AND AROUND TJMZ...AND THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR...AS SHRA AND
ISOLD TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COAST OF PR.

[cycloneye]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PRC111-113-082045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SV.W.0005.091008T1940Z-091008T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST THU OCT 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PENUELAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PENUELAS...
PONCE MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PONCE...

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 338 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PONCE AND
PENUELAS COUNTY LINE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TALLABOA ALTA BY 400 PM AST...
PENUELAS BY 405 PM AST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 PM AST THU OCT 8 2009

PRC001-059-075-093-111-113-153-082245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0319.091008T1957Z-091008T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-MARICAO PR-YAUCO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-
PENUELAS PR-
357 PM AST THU OCT 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS...MARICAO...YAUCO...GUAYANILLA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND
PENUELAS

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

* AT 352 PM AST DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED
TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
630 PM. ALSO...U.S.G.S SENSOR INDICATED PORTUGUES RIVER WAS RISING
RAPIDLY. ALL PEOPLE ALONG THIS RIVER SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Gustywind]

Given my untrained eyes of amateur, seems that 92L is racing towards the Windwards islands, so unstelled conditions could affect Bardados and the adjacent Windwards tonight. Thus, convection associated with this vigorous system is trying to expand northward reaching St Lucia latitude even the southern tip of Martinica.
Hey Caribsue and Abajan we don't forget you , keep us informed as usual and as possible.
Be safe .
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Invest #92L
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atla ... st92L.html
Location: Western Atlantic Lat: 9.8N Lon: 58.3W Moving: WNW 21 mph (18 kts) Pressure: 29.83 in (1010 mb)

Invest #92L Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
1800 THU OCT 08 9.8N 58.3W WNW 21 (18) 29.83 (1010) 29 (25)
1200 THU OCT 08 9.3N 56.5W W 26 (23) 29.88 (1012) 29 (25)

[cycloneye]

Radar from Martinique.

[Gustywind]

From a correspondant of Barbados on the weather site of Stormarib.com

Quite a wave
By Peter Allen <stilettocruises at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 2009 15:53:27 -0700 (PDT)

Looks like we should have a wet and windy nite tonite as this wave on our SE doorstep looks impressive on the satellite photo.NHC says it's interaction with land stops it from further development nevertheless Trinidad through the windward islands should be getting rain and gusty winds.Our friends in the ABC islands should keep an eye on it.Regards Peter

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 082338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 62.2W AT
08/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE THE LAST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR HENRI UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W S OF 15N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW
CYCLONIC CURVATURE S OF 13N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...HOWEVER SAHARAN DUST IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AROUND
THE WAVE. DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 10N E OF 30W TO THE W AFRICA
COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO BE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM
7N-14N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 22 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 55W-64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
54W-60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER W OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 60W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE
WAVE LIES IN A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 15N AS OBSERVED IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS HOWEVER WELL W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-14N
BETWEEN 79W-86W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 12N23W 7N30W 5N40W 4N52W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 26W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A FEW CELLS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITHIN 15 NM OF 21.5N89W. 5-10 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE E
GULF...WHILE 15-20 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W MOVING E. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...SE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN BETWEEN PUERTO RICO
AND BELIZE BETWEEN 17N-20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. EXPECT...MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W...AND OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 67W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVES W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W
30N70W 29N78W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS E OF THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74W.
THE REMNANTS OF HENRI IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. A
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N44W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N36W 26N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N39W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N26W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N50W.

$$
FORMOSA

[msbee]

that wave looks much more impressive than Henri ever did. Hope the southern islands won't get swept away with too much rain.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST THU OCT 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF HENRI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH
COAST/NORTH SLOPES OF PR THROUGH THE NIGHT ON NERLY WINDS.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS WINDS TURN MORE EAST SOUTHEAST
BEHIND SFC TROUGH. EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS TO SHIFT TO THE
TYPICAL AREAS OF WRN/NWRN PR TOMORROW AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTH
SLOPES LIKE IT DID TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THAT
COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.

MEANWHILE...TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10.2N AND 59.5W WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING A SIG INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY TO THE OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE (PWATS ABOVE 2.0 INCHES) IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT AN UNFAVORABLE
TIME OF DAY TO GENERATE ANY DEEP CONVECTION OVER LAND.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER DRYING IS FCST TO BUILD QUICKLY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS STRONG MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBEEAN. HAVE TRENDED
FCST MUCH DRIER FOR SAT GIVEN TRENDS IN THE MODELS. LOOKS LIKE
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD STRONG INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.AVIATION...NERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW. TSTMS LIKELY TOMORROW AT TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS. TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TISX TOMORROW NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 INDICATING 8.5 FT SEAS THIS EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF ABOUT 11 SECS. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR ATLC WATERS.

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends .
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 090928
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST FRI OCT 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
STORM HENRI WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL STORM
HENRI...WHICH CAN BEEN SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TODAY. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY...A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL BRING A SURGE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHIFT IN WINDS TO A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS
WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH RAPIDLY WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESSED AND FAIRLY SCATTERED...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED
PASSING SHRA...MAINLY OVER NORTH SECTIONS...INCLUDING TIST...TJSJ
AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
TJMZ AND TJPS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
THEREAFTER...BUT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09/17Z AND 09/21Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...OCTOBER 2009 IS STARTING OFF AS ONE OF THE WARMEST
OCTOBERS ON RECORD. WHILE NO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BROKEN
AT THE LUIS MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN...THE WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURES ON RECORD HAVE EITHER BEEN REACHED OR EXCEEDED THE LAST
SIX MORNINGS IN A ROW...WITH AN AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 80.1
RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...OVER THE
PAST 54 YEARS...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN OCTOBER HAS ONLY TOPPED 80
DEGREES 5 TIMES...3 OF WHICH OCCURRED THIS MONTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 91 78 / 50 40 30 10
STT 88 79 89 79 / 60 60 20 10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710.
VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710.

&&

$$

06/04

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 090909
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI OCT 9 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OCCURRED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
THE WIND WAS VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15
MPH OR LESS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI
WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
WIND CONDITIONS TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS
OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 7 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
FOR TODAY.

$$

[Gustywind]

92L...






Latest given SSD:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/0545 UTC 10.3N 60.2W TOO WEAK 92L
08/2345 UTC 10.4N 59.4W TOO WEAK 92L

[Gustywind]

Henri dies
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 9, 2009 6:29 am ET

In the Atlantic, the remnants of Henri were located northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but strengthening of the remnants are not expected.

About 250 miles east of the southern Windward Islands, a tropical wave was generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

The environment here remains unfavorable for tropical cyclone development but locally heavy rain will impact the southern Windward Islands and Venezuela.

[cycloneye]

KNHC 091149
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI ARE LOCATED ABOUT
200 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH
NORTHERN VENEZUELA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE