Caribbean - Central America Weather

[FireBird]

Hello my Carib friends, I posted my obs from Trinidad on the Tropical Analysis page on 92L. It's dark, strong winds, medoerate to heavy rains. My immediate area in NNW valley of Diego Martin is doing farily well for now, but I am keeping my ears alert to news from East, South, and Central Trinidad where it seems the heavy storms have dumped a lot of water. Wish I was at home rather than the office, so I could take in every minute of it, but I'll do my best to keep you posted. One thing I can confirm - I had sustained winds moving west to east, joining up with fast moving storms heading NW. We'll wait to see what happens when 92L makes it out to the wide open Caribbean Sea......

[cycloneye]

U

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1234 PM AST FRI OCT 9 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM CLOUD TO CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THOSE AFFECTED AREAS. ALSO...MODERATE RISK OF MUDSLIDES
EXIST MAINLY OVER STEEP TERRAINS.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN COMPARISON WITH OTHERS GLOBAL MODEL.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE SHORT TERM
PACKAGE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL LINGER AROUND AT LEAST
THROUGH MID SATURDAY WITH A SHARP DRYING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THEN CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HENRI MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE DISSIPATING.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT
FOUR TO FIVE DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic from weather:

Puerto Rico is going thru a confrontational period since the last 3 weeks as protests against the layoffs of around 16,000 workers in the goverment.See more information at thread in off-topic forum.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=106702&p=1931805#p1931805

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091913 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST FRI OCT 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
STORM HENRI WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THIS WEATHER FEATURE
MOVES WEST...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT.
THEREFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS PRODUCED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 3
INCHES...MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITY OF MARICAO. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH A FEW COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW...BEFORE KNOWN AS TROPICAL STORM HENRI...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A CU LINE COULD ALSO
DEVELOP OVER EL YUNQUE AND SPREAD WEST NORTHWEST AFFECTING THE SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.

A MUCH STABLE AND DRIER ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
953 PM AST FRI OCT 9 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED MUCH LONGER THIS EVENING THAN
THEY TYPICALLY LAST AS SFC TROUGH HAVE AIDED IN FOCUSING ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ALREADY KNOCKING IN OUR
DOORS AS SEEN ON LATEST TPW IMAGERY AND 00Z JSJ SOUNDING WHICH
SHOW PWATS DOWN TO 1.88 INCHES AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMP
PROFILE. SHOWERS OVER LAND WILL PROBABLY LAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR LIKELY TO WIN THE BATTLE.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

October 2009 is starting off as one of the warmest Octobers on Record. While no record maximum temperatures have been broken at the Luis Muñoz International Airport in San Juan, the warmest low temperatures on record have either been reached or exceeded the last six mornings in a row. This has contributed to an average low temperature of 80.1F for the month so far. To put this in perspective, over the past 54 years, the low temperature in October has only topped 80 degrees 5 times, 3 of which occurred this month.

 October 2009:   Maximum  Minimum Record Max Warmest Min
October 1st  92 80 96 – 1992* 81 – 1983 
October 2nd  89 79 95 – 1982  80 – 2001 
October 3rd  92 79 96 – 1982  79 – 2009*
October 4th  90 80 95 – 1994  80 – 2009*
October 5th  92 81 93 – 1987 81 – 2009
October 6th  92 80 93 – 1987  80 – 2009*
October 7th  91 81 92 – 2007* 81 – 2009
October 8th  90 81 97 – 1981  81 – 2009 



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 0&source=0

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST SAT OCT 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...HELPING TO LIMIT AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY A STRAY SHOWER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE VI AND MUCH OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM HENRI REMAINS VISIBLE IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY PASSING APPROXIMATELY 150 MILES NORTH OF
THE MONA PASSAGE. MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO HELP BRING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
STILL EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY AS THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL
ALSO ACT TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ANOTHER 90 DEGREE PLUS DAY EXPECTED NEAR
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE METRO AREA.

PATCHY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT NO PROBLEMATIC OR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS ANY DEEP
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TILL LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE
COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...DYNAMICS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING IN THE VCTY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 10/17Z-10/21Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS SET IN SAN JUAN FRIDAY
MORNING...MARKING 7 STRAIGHT DAYS OF RECORD WARMTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEE THE NEWS HEADLINE ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE SAN JUAN HOMEPAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 100850
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST SAT OCT 10 2009

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE WIND WAS VARIABLE AT LESS THAN
10 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL STILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AGAIN TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS
OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST SAT OCT 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE MONA CHANNEL AT THIS TIME...TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTION OF THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THIS AREA.
AFTERWARD...RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE PUSHED TOWARD THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MODERATE EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE
ISLANDS...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE USVI TO ENJOY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJPS AND TJMZ FROM 19Z TO 22Z THIS AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC039-091-102230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0050.091010T1941Z-091010T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST SAT OCT 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES
MANATI

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 333 PM AST...A USGS RIVER GAGE ON THE RIO GRANDE DE MANATI AT
CIALES INDICATED THE RIVER WAS AT 7.74 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY AND
FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET. CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE
RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE BY 4:30 PM AST. PEOPLE
TRAVELLING ALONG ROUTE 149 FROM CIALES TO MANATI SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY RISING WATERS.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[msbee]

Code: Select all

October 2009 is starting off as one of the warmest Octobers on Record. While no record maximum temperatures have been broken at the Luis Muñoz International Airport in San Juan, the warmest low temperatures on record have either been reached or exceeded the last six mornings in a row. This has contributed to an average low temperature of 80.1F for the month so far. To put this in perspective, over the past 54 years, the low temperature in October has only topped 80 degrees 5 times, 3 of which occurred this month.

 October 2009:   Maximum  Minimum Record Max Warmest Min
October 1st  92 80 96 – 1992* 81 – 1983 
October 2nd  89 79 95 – 1982  80 – 2001 
October 3rd  92 79 96 – 1982  79 – 2009*
October 4th  90 80 95 – 1994  80 – 2009*
October 5th  92 81 93 – 1987 81 – 2009
October 6th  92 80 93 – 1987  80 – 2009*
October 7th  91 81 92 – 2007* 81 – 2009
October 8th  90 81 97 – 1981  81 – 2009 



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 0&source=0

It's blazing hot here too, Luis. Everyone is complaining and wondering why it is still so hot. We should be cooling off a little by October.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC047-101-143-145-110300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0051.091010T2317Z-091011T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
717 PM AST SAT OCT 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL
MOROVIS
VEGA ALTA
VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 1100 PM AST

* AT 656 PM AST...A USGS RIVER GAGE SENSOR ALONG THE RIO CIBUCO AT
VEGA BAJA INDICATED THE RIVER WAS AT 10.71 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY
AND FLOOD STAGE IS 15 FEET. RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST AT 17.18 AT
MIDNIGHT.

IMPACT STATEMENTS WITH THIS RIVER INCLUDES...

...AT 11.11 FEET.. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT ROADS 160...2...686...687
AND 689. ALSO...PUENTE EL INDIO IMPASSABLE....FLOODING IN MOROVIS
WITH RIO UNIBON.

...AT 12.00 FEET...FLOODING MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE IN VEGA
ALTA...FATIMA AND COREA SECTOR.

AT 16.00 FEET...RIVER FLOODING MAY CLOSE DOWN ROUTE 2 BETWEEN VEGA
BAJA AND VEGA ALTA. ROUTES 675 AND 676 MAY ALSO BE IMPASSABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102334
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 102315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N36W TO 9N39W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE
WAVE ALSO LEAD A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 34W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A NARROW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR ON BOTH SIDES AND SIGNIFICANTLY
DRY AIR ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WHILE
THE MAJORITY OF THE WAVE AXIS IS OVER THE E PACIFIC
REGION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 87W-91W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SEE MIATWDEP FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 8N20W 12N35W 10N45W 7N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE
AFRICA COAST FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 9W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD BECOMES
STATIONARY AT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W ENTERING THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR PANAMA CITY CONTINUING ALONG 28N91W 25N95W
TO 20N97W N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO THEN ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N94W TO 17N93W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 95W-97W. BASED ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD...AND 100 NM BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF TO
NEAR 23N88W. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...ONE OVER THE WRN GULF CENTERED OVER
MEXICO...AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF AND FLORIDA
CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLC NEAR 28N67W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
SLOWLY SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN AND N OF THE AREA BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING
CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W. SEE ABOVE. DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 75W-88W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 84W S OF
22N...AND W OF 80W S OF 14N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF 18N
BETWEEN 68W-78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 71W. SEE ABOVE. THE FAIR WEATHER IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED IN THE WRN ATLC NEAR 28N67W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W TO CONTINUE WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC CENTERED NEAR
28N67W SUPPORTING A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N69W. A 1013 MB
SURFACE LOW...REMNANTS OF HENRI...IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N68W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 70W-72W. A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N37W EXTENDING ALONG 25N42W
22N52W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 450 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 24N...AND WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 22N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 40N40W
TO 19N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS E OF THE SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N17W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS E
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 30N24W TO 22N19W
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 18W-22W.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

Quiet tropics...but let's wait and see what could happen during the next couple of days.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 110054
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
854 PM AST SAT OCT 10 2009

.UPDATE...HEAVY RAIN FELT ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING NEAR 5 INCHES IN ISOLATED
SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE DE MANATI...AND RIO CIBUCO
BASINS. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IS DISCERNIBLE IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
AS WELL IN LATEST MIMIC TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS...THIS AREA OF DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGH. A LINE OF CONVERGENCE LOCATED FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA...WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS TJMZ SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VCTS.


&&

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 101440
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 AM AST SAT OCT 10 2009

A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S AND
WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL STILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AGAIN TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS
OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST SUN OCT 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT LOWER LEVELS...REFLECTIONS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL FORCE THE REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE FA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE THEN LINGERING CLOSE
TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY...POSSIBLY DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING "BACK ACROSS" THE FA TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH...IT APPEARS THAT SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY
WILL AGAIN BE DICTATED BY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO/ACROSS THE
FA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH SURFACE LIFTING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND UPPER JET
VENTILATION...TO EVENTUALLY PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD AGAIN BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.V.I. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEST
MOISTURE APPEARS TO WAFFLE SOUTH AND NORTH A BIT...BUT ALL IN ALL
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH 11/13Z...WITH A VCSH POSSIBLE NEAR TIST...TJSJ AND
TJBQ. AFT 11/13Z...EXPECT SCT-BKN050 CLD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TO BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
A PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN VI...TNCM...TJSJ AND TJBQ.
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ WHERE
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THESE
AREAS BETWEEN 11/15Z-11/21Z. IN ADDITION...PLUME OF VOLCANIC ASH
CONTINUES FROM MONTSERRAT...BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THIS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM AT THIS TIME...THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF
SURGES OF MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTH AND THEN NORTH NORTHEAST
SWELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP COMBINED SEAS RATHER
CHOPPY AND WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY ROUGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING
COASTLINES.

&&

.CLIMATE...ANOTHER RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS SET IN SAN
JUAN SATURDAY MORNING...MARKING 8 STRAIGHT DAYS OF RECORD WARMTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NEWS HEADLINE ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN HOMEPAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

[cycloneye]

Barbara,the warm period in October continues.

Code: Select all

October 10th  90 81 95 - 1980  81 – 2009

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