SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[jasons2k]

Is anyone else having issues with the NWS - HGX website? Just making sure I'm not having a PC issue - thanks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is anyone else having issues with the NWS - HGX website? Just making sure I'm not having a PC issue - thanks.

I haven't tried today, but did yesterday. And NWS HGX's website was very slow, or didn't load at all.

http://www.weather.gov/view/states.php?state=TX&map=on is a good substitute for discussions, warnings, etc.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Seems to be a SRH thing...

[jasons2k]

Yesterday, the radar estimated over 1/2" at my house, but when I got home and checked the guage, it only had .15"

Maybe I'll get lucky and get another shower today - we need it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

NWS doesn't seem to think remnant outflow boundary from Oklahoma/NortTex storms will affect HOU area, but despite not great mositure content on sounding, cap seems breakable, and winds could eb slack enough for some scattered sea breeze action...

[vbhoutex]

I had to put down water today since we haven't had any rain to speak of since the flood. Some of the grass was starting to look bleak. Seems like we are either feast or famine here when it comes to rain.

[srainhoutx]

I had to put down water today since we haven't had any rain to speak of since the flood. Some of the grass was starting to look bleak. Seems like we are either feast or famine here when it comes to rain.

Same here vbhoutex. We had planted some new things in our front beds that Ike took away. Jeff Lindner e-mail this morning offers a little hope...

Upper air pattern change at hand this morning and this will result in a fairly large change to our local weather.

Mid and upper level ridge that has been in control for the past several days will break down while a new ridge builds over the western US. This will allow a downstream NW flow aloft to develop over TX. Cold frontal boundary over the central plains will advance southward in the favorable upper flow. At the surface a pool of tropical moisture will advect into SE TX this afternoon in Saturday. NEXRAD is showing a few scattered showers this morning over coastal Jefferson and Chambers counties and then well inland over Polk County suggesting the air mass is wetter across our eastern areas. CRP NEXRAD shows a few showers well SE of Port O Connor moving NW likely along the leading edge of deeper moisture. With moisture increasing, the cap weakening, and an incoming weak vort max from SW TX a few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along the inland moving seabreeze front.

Saturday-Sunday AM:

Main action will be Saturday afternoon into early Sunday as the front moves into the area and a stronger vort max crosses from the west. Air mass will become tropical-like with PWS rising into the 1.6-1.8 inch range with little to no capping. Will side with the higher rain chances on the NAM as with a little surface heating showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop during the early afternoon hours. Outflow boundary from NE Mexico convective event tonight will also make a run for our area and this combined with the seabreeze points toward a decent shot of storms Saturday PM. Frontal boundary arrives into the region after dark Saturday with a squall or MCS likely ongoing along the boundary. Entire mess will pass through the region prior to sunrise Sunday…but it could be a little bumpy overnight Saturday with a severe weather and heavy rainfall threat.

Area will clear nicely early Sunday with pleasant conditions as north winds allows 50 degree dewpoints to slide into the area. Upper ridging will develop over the central US while an uncertain and convoluted pattern begins to unfold in the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Gulf next week:

Upper air pattern transition will allow a deep trough to develop over the SE US which over time translates SSE into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough initially is all cold core…however by the middle to end of next week the GFS, CMC, and UKMET all show the trough cutting off and developing a closed 250mb and 500mb circulation now over the SE Gulf of Mexico…this is still not much cause for concern as this would still be cold core. However, the models sit the system over the warm waters of the SE Gulf and the GFS shows a surface low (1004-1009mb) forming under the 500mb system. In fact the 00Z GFS shows nearly 50kts of NE and E winds on the north side of this system over the northern and central Gulf by the end of next week. The GFS moves the whole mess towards the NW with the surface low moving inland over SE LA next weekend. The rest of the models are showing more northerly tracks and more eastward formations of the upper trough and any surface reflection. For now will go with the potential of a sub-tropical storm (possibly with a name from the 2009 list) somewhere in the region of FL by the end of next week. TX should remain far enough west to only be influenced by the northerly surface flow. The other concern would be the expanding wind field with increasing swell action. Since Hurricane Ike removed nearly all the dune protection and replenishment processes are in their infancy, such long period swells could result in coastal flooding and damage the dune building process. We shall see what transpires…but a warning that hurricane season is upon us once again.

[Yankeegirl]

Hi all! I am SO ready for some more rain!! Hey, I changed my e mail address and I cant get into the old one and I am not getting the e mails from Jeff anymore!! If anyone could be so nice and to foward them to me, or maybe let Jeff know that I changed my e mail address so I can start receiving them again, I would greatly appreciate it!! Thanks!!!

[CajunMama]

It is rather chilly out today. I got home about 3pm or so and nws said it was 66. I just checked again and it's dropped to 64. Our high today was at 10am where it was 73.

Ok, i just checked the discussion...where in the world have i been. I didn't realize we were getting a late season cool front. oh doh!

[vbhoutex]

My yard sure did enjoy the almost all afternoon long rain we had yesterday. It was a good slow rain that all soaked in. Today was cool out compared to normal and to what we have been having. Much nicer. Looks like the week will be much more normal temperature wise.

[jasons2k]

Had a fun, and interesting weekend (weather - wise).

We went to the Frio River near Garner St. Park. Friday was nice and hot. Friday night, The front came thru earlier and stronger than expected - we had quite the lightning show for a few hours then a long, heavy soaker for about 3-4 hours. The river came-up some but not much.

Saturday was OK, not too sunny, but it felt nice. It seemed a little chilly Sat Evening. Yesterday was beautiful - the sun was out. We left after lunch. As we headed east on 1-10, it got cooler as we got closer Houston.

When I got home, I had .72" in the rain guage.

[srainhoutx]

Great May treat this morning with a low temp of 55.8 degrees at the house.

[Yankeegirl]

What a wonderful day it was today!! I love this weather!! Why cant it be like this ALL the time!!

[srainhoutx]

Convective temps have been met and some slow movers as vortmax heads our way...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

Aviation Update from EWX...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ATTM A VORT LOBE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN KSAT AND KAUS DRIFTING
EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWFA.
THE RADAR LOOP DEPICTED THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ROTATING COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE VORT LOBE. KAUS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
BE IMPACTED BY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH KSAT AND KSSF WITH A
SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCE. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR ALL THREE
I-35 TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE VORT LOBE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE
STABLE ON MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

HGX Radar Loop...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

Watch out SG and CM. Appears you folks will have some issues also...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-250000-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE TODAY...

AT 1230 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN CALCASIEU AND NORTHERN
CAMERON PARISHES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 10.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA
IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS.

TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED AND DO NOT REACH
THE GROUND...AND TYPICALLY FORM WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEA BREEZE
COLLIDE. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND REACHES THE
GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED.

WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO USUALLY SHORT LIVED AND FORM UNDERNEATH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
LAKES...BAYS...AND WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WATERSPOUTS CAN BE DANGEROUS TO BOATS...AND MARINERS SHOULD MOVE
AWAY FROM ANY WATERSPOUTS IF THEY ARE ENCOUNTERED.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've eaten BBQ in Luling. Town has a faint odor of hydrogen sulfide. Sure, it is a deadly toxin, but in Luling, it means oil, and lots of it, a little from the Austin, but mostly the Cretaceous Upper Edwards.


BTW, in San Antonio, the Edwards is an aquifer, and in Austin, it outcrops West of the Balcones Fault Zone.

WWUS54 KEWX 241938
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
238 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

TXC021-149-241948-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-090524T2000Z/
BASTROP TX-FAYETTE TX-
238 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME WEST CENTRAL FAYETTE
AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 2991 9753 2991 9752 2977 9732 2963 9743
2974 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 305DEG 11KT 2978 9756

$$

TXC055-177-242000-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-090524T2000Z/
CALDWELL TX-GONZALES TX-
238 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL GONZALES AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES...

AT 237 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROWNSBORO...
OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LULING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE TILMON AND THOMPSONVILLE.

LAT...LON 2991 9753 2991 9752 2977 9732 2963 9743
2974 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 305DEG 11KT 2978 9756

$$

Well disguised oil production in Luling, TX

[srainhoutx]

HGX afternoon update offers more rain chances ahead...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A DAY OF WIDESPREAD ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN ISSUE BEING
WITH THEIR SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF AROUND 15 MPH PRODUCING ISOLATED
2 TO NEAR 3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
ADVISORIES FOR A FEW NEARING 3.5 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AS FFG
NUMBERS COMING IN WITH 3-4 INCH HOURLY RATES...FEEL MANY CAN
HANDLE HOURLY RATES OF 3 INCHES OR UNDER. ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE
DOWN AROUND SUNSET...THE FIRST GUESS OF PRIMARY FOCUS BEING ALONG
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARITIME REGIONS WITHIN DEEPER MOISTURE.
LATEST S/W COMING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHEARING OFF...ALTHOUGH WILL LEAN TOWARDS THERE BEING
ANOTHER VORT OR TWO WITHIN THE BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR-ZONAL
FLOW. NAM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...PICKING UP ON A WEAK
VORT CROSSING THE CENTRAL STATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOISTURE NOT
IN QUESTION WITH PW VALUES STILL IN THE 1.5" TO 1.7" RANGE...THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY BEING OF LL FOCUS. TRIGGER TEMPS NEAR 80F AND
GENERAL SOUTHERN PLAINS HEIGHT WEAKNESSES CAUSED BY EASTERN
OK/ARKANSAS TROFFINESS ALLOWS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY`S
ENVIRON TO TOMORROW. THUS...KEEPING MONDAY`S TEETERING POPS AT 50
SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LOGICAL CHOICE.

TUESDAY`S TRANSITORY RIDGING FILLING IN OK/AR LOW`S VOID WILL KICK
IN MORE OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS THAT WILL DRIVE
AFTERNOON MERCURY INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. A VERY HOT AND MUGGY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP TO NEAR 100F. MODEL
ENSEMBLE AGGRESSIVELY PICKING UP ON A CENTRAL TEXAS CONVECTIVE
BULLS-EYE WEDNESDAY FROM A STRENGTHENING VORT MAX. CHANCE POPS TO
COVER THIS SIGNAL...ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL WRF`S TUESDAY RUNS MAY
OFFER BETTER INSIGHT ON THIS MID-WEEK FEATURE.

AMPLIFYING GREAT BASIN RIDGING (WITH A LATE WEEK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE) WILL KICK IN MORE OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW...AIDING
IN PUSHING RETURNING LATE THURSDAY WESTERN TX CONVECTION DOWN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (PER GFS). POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS FROM
THESE STORM OUTFLOWS COULD LAY DOWN ENOUGH OF A LL FOCUS TO
INCREASE THE LATE WEEK STORM THREAT (PER CWA REMAINING UNDER A
HUMID AND VERY WARM AIR MASS/MAX TEMPS IN LOWER 90S). EITHER
WAY...WX PATTERN STILL SEEMS ACTIVE AS EASTERN TEXAS REMAINS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF EAST U.S TROF. 5H HEIGHTS BUILD INTO TEXAS AS
EAST COAST TROF LIFTS OUT OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE WANING DAYS OF MAY
LOOK DRIER WITH NEAR-CLIMO TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR. 31

[TexasSam]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 314 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MANVEL...OR NEAR FRESNO...AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO HOBBY AIRPORT...PEARLAND...FRIENDSWOOD...BROOKSIDE
VILLAGE AND ALVIN.

About 12:30pm we had a nasty little storm here. The power even blinked a bit, Lightning strikes all around.

[srainhoutx]

Some impressive rainfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour in Matagorda County.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 336 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLESSING.
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY. ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY 415
PM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SOUTH
TEXAS NUCLEAR PLANT.