Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

Yes, the sun angle is now equivalent to mid March. Summer cannot keep winning, climo is against it

I was really expecting the rains to hit this month but instead so far just dews and humidity. Hopefully that will translate to higher qpf when the systems start rolling through.

[Portastorm]

I'm humored to read references in this thread to a "ridge of death" in North Texas. Sure it has been drier than normal and drier than what most folks would want ... but a real ridge of death?! C'mon man ... this is nothing compared to 2011. Nothing!

A ridge of death means 100+ degrees most of the summer with no rain. Hell, Dallas didn't even have its first 100-degree day this summer until late July. If you think this summer has been one featuring "a ridge of death" then you're really setting yourself up for a LOT of misery next year or the year after when La Nina returns and we go back into a REAL dry pattern with REAL ridges of death setting up over the Southern Plains. Like 2011 and 2012.

[JDawg512]

I saw something a couple of days ago that the el niño should be influencing the polar jet by now but it has yet to do so and the jet itself is rather ragged. Hopefully this will change soon. Also waiting for a good recurve of a tropical system which looks like it's going to happen per models.

Back in July I decided to try to estimate what the year end total rainfall would be using my rainfall record here at home. I took into account one below or well below average month (that ended up being July of course), but I figured August would be closer to average though still a little below and that ended up not being the case. My estimate was it would end up being somewhere between 60 and 65 inches given that by July 1st I recorded 40.74 inches. Since then it's only gone up to 43.05 in and September has not delivered what would be needed to keep on track for my original estimate. I was gonna revise my estimate on the 1st of October but went ahead and decided to lower it to 60 inches. I'd like to see at least 4 inches for this month. Parts of Austin have received 3+ but since it's been isolated pockets and I'm only using my home record, I'm not even at 2 in yet. October is really going to have to deliver or I'll have to lower my estimate yet again but I'm hoping I won't.

[Ntxw]

Anyone betting on below normal precip this fall/winter? Any real chance that could possibly happen?

It could, anything is possible but as a forecast it wouldn't be wise to. When one makes a prediction often you look at the dominating factor first and see what it favors and base it on probability. It isn't going to give you a specific result all the time but over time it will likely play out that way. For instance late last year and early this year we saw signs of a significant El Nino and figured a wetter year was to come. It wasn't always wetter but in the grand scope everyone is at above normal rainfall for the entire year which was the case as most El Ninos.

Also the PDO rise last year told us eventually the rains would come and it did.

[Ntxw]

I'm humored to read references in this thread to a "ridge of death" in North Texas. Sure it has been drier than normal and drier than what most folks would want ... but a real ridge of death?! C'mon man ... this is nothing compared to 2011. Nothing!

A ridge of death means 100+ degrees most of the summer with no rain. Hell, Dallas didn't even have its first 100-degree day this summer until late July. If you think this summer has been one featuring "a ridge of death" then you're really setting yourself up for a LOT of misery next year or the year after when La Nina returns and we go back into a REAL dry pattern with REAL ridges of death setting up over the Southern Plains. Like 2011 and 2012.

If you remember 1998 and 1999 and then 2000 that was year after year of heat and long stretches of dry weather. If the La Ninas follow this El Nino just as big as 1997, its going to get much worse. Also just as the 2010/11 Nina followed 2009 and came the brutal summers.

Enjoy this reprieve while you can!

[Tireman4]

Yes, the sun angle is now equivalent to mid March. Summer cannot keep winning, climo is against it

I was really expecting the rains to hit this month but instead so far just dews and humidity. Hopefully that will translate to higher qpf when the systems start rolling through.

Agreed. Agreed. I know we get emotional on here, but when we sit down and our meteorological side takes over, this is correct. Fall has to come. Whether it be in early October or late September, it will come. Clime will dictate that.

[CaptinCrunch]

I remember those summers well 98-2000, However it was rare to have 3 La Nina's like that in a row. Usually you get 2 straight together, one moderate/strong followed by moderate/weak then ENSO neutral before the next El Nino. What we got was 3 moderate/Strong La Nina's in a row which kick off the major drought Texas Has been in till this past Spring.

[Brent]

Bleh. What gives? Really thought there'd be hard signs of a real cooldown by now with the el nino(at least towards October)



I don't think this summer has been a death ridge at all... but what it has been is more what I used to go through every summer in AL/GA with one big difference... no cooling storms on a daily basis. The humidity and yuck was a force even with lower afternoon temperatures(I also got to thinking of all those days we didn't hit 100 but it was 99/80 for weeks... that doesn't help anything and was IMO worse than it was 105/80 because again, the humidity). Summer was still warmer than normal at DFW mostly due to warmer overnight lows, so it wasn't a "cool" summer at all like I was hoping for in an el nino either.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is status quo, warm and dry through its run

[Tireman4]

12z GFS is status quo, warm and dry through its run

You know, Larry Cosgrove called this. He said September would be hot. Ughh...

[TheProfessor]

There's been chatter on other forums that the El Nino might become a Modoki El Nino. I went back and looked at the anomalies for September thru November and the temps were all above average for the Central and Eastern CONUS that year. Of Course we all know what happened on Christmas later that year.

[Ntxw]

He higher humidity summer was definitely a by product of El Nino. More moisture was available from the Pacific as well as southerly flow vs dry SW flow of Ninas.

Speaking of El Nino this week's reading was a whopping 2.3C. You don't see that often. It is becoming the El Nino of El Ninos. You can count on one hand how many El Nino's see 2C or greater, to have one read that before late fall and winter is even more rare.

[Tireman4]

The last two sentences...something...just a morsel...oh yeah...my A/C is not working. Cannot get it fixed until Saturday. Oh yeah, I have to go through Houston traffic today to my other job...yea....



THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE BIG
BEND WAS GENERATING A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SE TEXAS.

WITH THE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING MORE SUBSIDENCE AND LESS AVAILABLE CAPE FOR
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS AS SHOWN ON THE HIGH RESOLUTION TEXAS
TECH AND ARW. OTHER MODEL CONSENSUS WAS FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP OVER SE TEXAS. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA.

[Brent]

Bleh. What gives? Really thought there'd be hard signs of a real cooldown by now with the el nino(at least towards October)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

I don't think this summer has been a death ridge at all... but what it has been is more what I used to go through every summer in AL/GA with one big difference... no cooling storms on a daily basis. The humidity and yuck was a force even with lower afternoon temperatures(I also got to thinking of all those days we didn't hit 100 but it was 99/80 for weeks... that doesn't help anything and was IMO worse than it was 105/80 because again, the humidity). Summer was still warmer than normal at DFW mostly due to warmer overnight lows, so it wasn't a "cool" summer at all like I was hoping for in an el nino either.

There's been chatter on other forums that the El Nino might become a Modoki El Nino. I went back and looked at the anomalies for September thru November and the temps were all above average for the Central and Eastern CONUS that year. Of Course we all know what happened on Christmas later that year.

2009-2010?

I'm trying to ignore that analog atm mostly because I refuse to be disappointed if it doesn't snow But it is my favorite.

[Ntxw]

2009/10 is a one in 40 year event . 1963-1964 is the other similar analog to 09/10. Maybe in 2040ish

[TheProfessor]

2009-2010?

I'm trying to ignore that analog atm mostly because I refuse to be disappointed if it doesn't snow But it is my favorite. [/quote]
nope sorry I forgot to mention the year lol, it was 2004. Which, would make any South Texan not named wxman57 salivate if another Christmas like that happened again.

[Brent]

2009/10 is a one in 40 year event . 1963-1964 is the other similar analog to 09/10. Maybe in 2040ish

Lol thats the other reason I'm ignoring it... I know chances of it happening again are virtually zero...

but even half the snow that happened that year would be a big year.

I guess what I noticed is that all the winters with 10+ inches of snow were el ninos... but there's also el nino's with zero snow... so it seems to be one extreme or another.

Heck I don't even know why I'm worried about winter right now... we gotta end summer first. which is proving to be a pain.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS meteogram for Houston indicates nice July weather for the next 10 days:

[Brent]

Someone needs to inform the GFS July is long over and this is a fall thread.

[dhweather]

I'm humored to read references in this thread to a "ridge of death" in North Texas. Sure it has been drier than normal and drier than what most folks would want ... but a real ridge of death?! C'mon man ... this is nothing compared to 2011. Nothing!

A ridge of death means 100+ degrees most of the summer with no rain. Hell, Dallas didn't even have its first 100-degree day this summer until late July. If you think this summer has been one featuring "a ridge of death" then you're really setting yourself up for a LOT of misery next year or the year after when La Nina returns and we go back into a REAL dry pattern with REAL ridges of death setting up over the Southern Plains. Like 2011 and 2012.

2011 - my yard cracked wide open and lots of things dead.

2015 - my yard cracked wide open and lots of things dead.

Sure 2011 was hotter, but 2015 has been dryer (3rd longest stretch with no precip, 2011 didn't crack the top 10) and more humid, preventing temps from cracking 100 as often, however the heat index has done it many times. Again, 2015 cannot hang with 2011 for actual temperatures, but it has provided its own brand of misery. If we did not have the rains in the Spring, I have no doubt we are in stage 4 drought right now and talking about how much longer to stage 5.

And yes, I fully expect the piper to come along and give us another profound drought next year when the immediate followup La Nina comes along. Hopefully rains materialize this Fall, we will need all of the lakes full for what is undoubtedly coming next year, especially in the Summer.