Texas Fall-2016

[gpsnowman]

The first 59 will be challenged overnight. Who will win? I did not put in a date but I am curious who will come the closest. Either way I love this weather.

[gboudx]

Yeah this did nothing for the ragweed except Sunday and yesterday when it rained. Thinking of getting a steroid shot.

[Ntxw]

Western Siberia has a lot of snow. In about a week we can start tracking the SAI (snow advance index) particularly the areas south and west of Siberia, Eurasia.

[Brent]

If the east coast hurricane verifies... there ought to be a decent cold snap behind it down the plains. It's timed with the mid-week front next week.

Certainly doesn't look like many above normal temps anytime soon, maybe a day or two before the front.

[Ralph's Weather]

Down to 55 here, dp is 53 so the temp may fall a tad more. Later in the week could be even chillier.

Update: 7am 52/50. It was 59 at midnight so looks like I made 59 very late 9/27.

[Ntxw]

DFW officially this morning got to 57F

[TeamPlayersBlue]

68F at TPB weather center this morning. May 29th was the last time we had a temp below 70F. I'll take it.

[Ntxw]

If the east coast hurricane verifies... there ought to be a decent cold snap behind it down the plains. It's timed with the mid-week front next week.

Certainly doesn't look like many above normal temps anytime soon, maybe a day or two before the front.

I hope it is a little warm in early October. Thats the best way to get sufficient rain. DFW needs about 3 more inches to finish out the year normal. Warmer than normal in Oct means mid to upper 80s so I can take that.

Nov and Dec I have an inkling will be cold, like in 2013. ENSO cold neutral tends to favor front end thumping

[Portastorm]

If the east coast hurricane verifies... there ought to be a decent cold snap behind it down the plains. It's timed with the mid-week front next week.

Certainly doesn't look like many above normal temps anytime soon, maybe a day or two before the front.

I hope it is a little warm in early October. Thats the best way to get sufficient rain. DFW needs about 3 more inches to finish out the year normal. Warmer than normal in Oct means mid to upper 80s so I can take that.

Nov and Dec I have an inkling will be cold, like in 2013. ENSO cold neutral tends to favor front end thumping

The 0z GFS and Euro runs suggest a wet frontal passage around Oct. 7-8 for Texas. As srainhoutx likes to say, we shall see.

Fun fact: we had some upper 50s for lows in northwest Travis County this morning. Rest of area was in low 60s. Wonderful!

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281516
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1016 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Surface analysis has weak high pressure over W Texas with surface
low over the Midwest. Cold front was pushing through the C Plains.
Temperatures at 15Z ranged from low 70s inland to upper 70s along
the coast. Max temperatures in the mid/upper 80s look on track but
updated T/Td trends for the next 3-6hrs. Overall conditions should
be calm and clear for the next 24 hours. Cold front does push
through tomorrow morning but no convection expected with it.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
High pressure over west Texas will bring generally clear skies to
Southeast Texas through Thursday morning. There will some cirrus
from time to time but nothing of much consequence. Winds will be
around 6 knots or less through 12z. A weak cold front will cross
the region early Thursday and wind speeds will increase in the
wake of the boundary Thursday morning. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
A welcome quiet and dry fall morning is underway for Southeast
Texas, with 3 AM CDT temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low
70s. Early morning surface analysis showed a remnant frontal
boundary stretching from the northwest Gulf towards Mississippi,
with a coastal trough draped from the Upper Texas coastal waters
south towards the Tamaulipas coastline. Farther north, another
cold front was located across Nebraska and into the Great Lakes.
Water vapor imagery showed a cutoff low drifting north into
California/Arizona with west/northwest flow aloft ahead of this
feature drawing mid and upper level Pacific moisture across Texas.
Also noted was another closed low over the Great Lakes with a
compact disturbance rotating south along the British Columbia
coast.

Drier air will continue to filter into the region today, allowing
for a cool start this morning but enabling temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Expect quiet weather to
continue across the region today with little more than a few
passing mid/high clouds as Pacific moisture continues to stream
overhead, but an isolated shower (and maybe even a thuderstorm)
will be possible across the offshore waters this morning with weak
convergence along the coastal trough. As the upper low over the
Great Lakes wobbles south today, it will send the cold front over
the Central Plains surging towards Southeast Texas and reach the
region by late tonight. Otherwise, expect quiet conditions to
continue overnight with lows ranging from the upper 50s and mid
60s inland to upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.

Little more is expected with the front as it clears the region on
Thursday than increasing northerly winds 10-15 MPH (with some
stronger gusts during the afternoon) and a reinforcing shot of dry
air. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs to climb into the 80s. Dry
and clear conditions overnight Thursday will encourage enough
radiational cooling for temperatures to fall into the upper 50s in
many locations north of Interstate 10 (although urban heat island
effects may keep the Houston metro slightly warmer in the low to
mid 60s). Regardless, Friday morning will be one of the coolest
mornings we`ve seen since early May... and yes, some may need a
jacket as they head to work or school.

Upper ridging over Texas begins to flatten on Friday as the low
over California/Arizona becomes and open wave and lifts northeast,
with dry and pleasant conditions continuing through the weekend as
the remains closed off from Gulf moisture. It will be a fantastic
weekend for outdoor activites with cool mornings (lows in the mid
50s to mid 60s) and mild afternoons (highs in the mid 80s). Dry
weather is expected to continue into the beginning of next week,
but surface high pressure sliding east of the region and onshore
flow resuming may allow for enough moisture to move back into
Southeast Texas for low diurnally driven rain chances to return to
the forecast Tuesday.

The low off the British Columbia coast this morning is expected
to translate east over the next several days, reaching the West
Coast by the end of the weekend and the Great Plains by the middle
of next week. As this storm system moves across the country, it
may send another cold front across Southeast Texas (and possibly
bring widespread rain chances back to the region) mid to late next
week.

Huffman

MARINE...
High pressure over west Texas will move slowly east and weaken
tonight. Low pressure over the northern plains will move southeast
and an associated cold front will push south Wednesday night. The
cold front will cross the coastal waters early Thursday. North
winds will gradually increase on Thursday and Thursday night in
the wake of the front. High pressure will build into Texas on
Friday behind the front and winds will begin to relax as the
gradient weakens. The high will move east on Sunday and onshore
winds will return to the coastal waters. Onshore winds will
strengthen and likely persist for the first half of next week. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 63 83 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 66 87 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 76 87 71 80 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...39
Long Term...08

[Ntxw]

I don't see any 90s in the immediate future for DFW. Our lows seems to have permanently transitioned to settle below 70 seems like for the season. Another gorgeous day in Texas today, yes even in Houston .

With all this good weather you know the state fair is just around the corner.

[weatherdude1108]

SPC is already honing in on day 6 for a threat of severe storms with a shortwave trough and the dryline across the panhandle and northwest to southwest Texas. But, this weather is chamber of commerce right now!


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290900
SPC AC 290900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND /DAY 4-SUN/...WITH SOME INCREASE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON DAY
5-MON...AND A GREATER POTENTIAL INTO DAY 6-TUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

00Z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND
MOVEMENT OF A PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH DAY 5...WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
INTO CA/NV ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND EXTENDING
FROM WY/CO TO AZ/NM BY 04/12Z. ALTHOUGH MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH
THE PRIMARY PORTION OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 6-TUE...THE ECMWF/GFS DIFFER IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO OK/KS TUESDAY NIGHT.

...DAY 6/TUE...
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BASAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/GFS FOR A RELATIVELY
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KS
THROUGH WESTERN OK...AND THE TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTHWEST TX. STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY LINE...WITH CAPE/SHEAR
PARAMETER SPACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 09/29/2016

[Ralph's Weather]

It feels amazing outside, sunny and around 70 for the lunchtime walk. We may get down into the upper 40s tonight in rural areas.

[Brent]

We could have this weather all year... a rain event weekly, and of course a good snowstorm once or twice and I'd be good...

[Ntxw]

We could have this weather all year... a rain event weekly, and of course a good snowstorm once or twice and I'd be good...

This is why people up North love summer. All they know is warm as 80s and 70s most of the time with coolish nights. For us that weather exists only in spring and fall.

[Ntxw]

October begins this Saturday. Of course that's the annual ever so important month in snow advance! Particularly in Asia. SAI was brought forth by Dr. Judah Cohen depicting a relationship between the predominant winter AO and how quickly snow advances in October setting off the surge of the Great Siberian high. A stronger winter high often is more prone to sudden stratospheric warming events. By no means is the SAI perfect or always correct but it is our best tool with some skill for AO forecasts, which is only one of the indexes. Area to monitor is roughly 60N. You want snow to rapidly increase long this latitude quickly as October progresses relative to normal.

Siberia and east central Asia will start out pretty chilly for the month







Good source for snow anomalies is the Rutgers snow lab

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/


Of course you will also need the -EPO to funnel the cold air at North America otherwise all that cold won't mean much.

[Brent]

Only 9pm and already a nip to the air... it's gonna be an amazing morning.

[Ralph's Weather]

Only 9pm and already a nip to the air... it's gonna be an amazing morning.

I can't wait, 58 here at 11pm. The question is if the DP will drop any more so we can hit 49, maybe if fog develops it will. Now areas north of I-30 like Paid and Clarksville will likely make it down into the 40s.

Update: 52 here at 4am. Some spotty upper 40s already across E Tx.

[weatherdude1108]

58 degrees at 6:30am here.

My AC decided to go out a couple days ago and can't be fixed until next Thursday. Hopefully it won't be too uncomfortably warm by then.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Hit 49 degrees at the house this morning! Fall is here!