Texas Fall 2017

[Ntxw]

Doesn't look as hot for this area of the state next week as what is forecast up north. After a short break tomorrow and Sunday, rain chances return Monday.

It's been cloudy for 6 days straight. Pretty impressive streak for this time of year.

We'll be in the mid to upper 80s, some close to 90. Not the mid 90s seen earlier by some guidance but it's still warm. We've been so accustomed to warmth in October. It could be worse though yes. More importantly the models are not bone dry, but with opportunities.

DFW's high today so far is 72 which is the current temperature. It is the first sub-80 high since May 4th. The record high for the date is 101 back in 2011 while the record low is 46 from 1967 both safe.

[bubba hotep]

Light rain most of the day here IMBY pushing the 3 day total over 2" which is a decent surprise, given the forecast from earlier in the week. I think the Wylie station might be off but I am a few miles away from it and CoCoRaHS reports confirm higher totals in the area.

[bubba hotep]

Also, DFW picked up enough rain to drop this September out of the Top 10 Driest!

[South Texas Storms]

3 inches of rain at my parent's house on the north side of SA! Much needed since that area has missed out on several of the big rain events so far this year.

[Ntxw]

Euro and GFS both agree of the pattern change going into the second week of Oct. Source region is not terribly cold but quasi -EPO episode should yield a good pattern for significant front. Perhaps first 40s (lows) of the season for some.





It's good to be discussing the EPO again, sure sign winter is just around the block

The snow advance index didn't have a good record the past couple of seasons, but always a fun thing to watch just in case!

[Brent]

18z GFS has mid 40s just outside DFW at day 11

Actually 40s in Denton and Fort Worth

[hriverajr]

Got close to 7 inches here at my location in Del Rio this week... Still raining lightly at the moment. 90's? what 90's I'm happy.

[weatherdude1108]

3 inches of rain at my parent's house on the north side of SA! Much needed since that area has missed out on several of the big rain events so far this year.

We received 3 inches over the past week at my place also. Awesome news for those who have missed out previously!

[Cpv17]

Well that 06z GFS run was sure interesting to say the least. Has what appears to be a depression or a weak tropical storm into south TX this coming Saturday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Excited were in Oct to watch the SAI. Yeah, it hasnt had the best record lately, but i still think its important for providing blocking in the higher latitudes later in the season, and a cold siberian PV pumps heights into the arctic.

Still think its a dry/warm winter but hopefully we can take advantage of the cold shots we get

[Brent]

End of the 12z Euro had 40s outside DFW too, also highs in the 60s even in DFW

Definitely looks like the biggest front of the season sometime early next week

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, that pic Ntx posted, look how low the Arctic Sea Ice is. Goodness. I know its at its minimum right now but goodness thats low.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Picked up 3.5" of rain over the 3 day event. Not too bad! It also looks like more is on the way, midweek.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021513
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1013 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.UPDATE...
Moisture continuing to make its way inland today, and with daytime
heating we should see scattered activity across much of SE TX this
afternoon. Current forecast appears to have things covered, so not
going with any significant changes with the update.41

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017/

Showers have begun to move into the eastern parts of our area
along the leading edge of deeper moisture easily seen on GOES
total precipitable water vapor imagery. More development can be
expected today with an increase in coverage anticipated tonight
and on into Tuesday and Tuesday night as even deeper moisture
surges into the area from the east. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible, and WPC has outlooked parts of our area in a marginal
risk on their Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The area looks to
see a significant decrease in coverage/intensity from east to west
beginning some time during the day on Wednesday and especially on
into Thursday as precipitable water values lower underneath
building mid/ upper level high pressure. Above normal temperatures
are anticipated for the end of the week, and they`ll probably
continue into the weekend as we wait for a possible cold frontal
passage around seven days for now. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 85 73 87 / 20 30 60 50 30
Houston (IAH) 88 74 85 72 88 / 40 40 60 50 40
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 84 78 87 / 50 50 60 50 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[Ntxw]

Higher surface pressure is indicative of a chilly air mass. Flow from the northern latitudes.



With some snow in the high rockies and upper plains. Can't wait!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

384 on the GFS has a really nice, strong front coming down. Likely indications of the type of pattern to come 2nd half of Oct. Patterns like this is what we may expect at times.

[Brent]

I'm cautiously optimistic this could be the coolest October since I've been here... the bar is low.

Next week's front could be more significant than anything seen last October(coolest at DFW last October 51 and not til the 22nd)

The 0z GFS stays below normal the entire run once next Monday's front hits...

[Ntxw]

SST anoms are increasing south of Alaska and the modeled above normal heights up that way looks promising for some -EPO. Hoping that trend continues deep into the fall.

[texas1836]

Is anyone aware of any good GFS apps available?

[JDawg512]

Getting a nice garden variety thunderstorm right now.

September monthly total, just a tad over 3.50"

If October can keep up and deliver, this rain miser will be very pleased.