MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS AND NW OK/OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 181959Z - 182130Z



SURFACE BASED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SW KS AND NW OK/OK PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. AREA IS BEING UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK AT 20Z.

AT 19Z...SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...WITH OUTFLOW
REINFORCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE/FAR SW KS...THEN EWD ACROSS SRN KS. RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT WRN PORTION OF NRN OK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
RETREATING NWD INTO SW KS AT THIS TIME...WITH TOWERING CU EVIDENT
ALONG OK/KS BORDER...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN DODGE CITY KS/GAGE OK.

IN SPITE OF MEAGER BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT...ENOUGH MASS
CONVERGENCE/MIXING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN PRESENCE OF WEAKENING CINH
MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
2000-2500 MLCAPE. HAVILAND KS PROFILER FEATURES AROUND 30-35 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WEAKNESS IS NOTED. ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WOULD BE LIKELY...WITH SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1007 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
   
   VALID 191507Z - 191630Z
   
   THE LATEST DATA ANALYSIS APPEARS TO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. AS A
   RESULT...THE OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO SLIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN
   ONTARIO WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED IN ERN NY. THE ATMOSPHERE
   IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. AS
   SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN NY...VT...CT AND WRN ME WITH CONVECTION
   GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
   WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO
   AROUND 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
   
   44907346 44997125 46017016 47266882 46816789 44786721
   43506983 43187019 41887001 41127123 41067311 42047410
   43327417

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191658Z - 191900Z
   
   OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE EMILY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TX
   OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INITIALLY...SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE FCST TO BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADO
   POTENTIAL BY MID-AFTERNOON. THUS A TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 19Z.
   
   RECENT 88-D IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES PRIMARY OUTER
   CONVECTIVE BAND OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES EAST
   OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND MOVING WWD AROUND 30 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF
   CURRENT/FCST MOTION WILL TAKE THIS BAND INTO SOUTH PADRE AROUND
   1745Z...AND INTO BRO/HARLINGEN AREAS BETWEEN 18-19Z. ALTHOUGH VWP AT
   BRO SHOWS VERY LITTLE TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ATTM...SRH FROM
   50-75 M2/S2...STRONGER AND MORE VEERED /ELY/ 1 KM WINDS ARE FCST TO
   MOVE INLAND BETWEEN 19-21Z ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX ON THE ERN SIDE OF
   THE MAIN OUTER BAND. MEANWHILE...AS EMILY APPROACHES THE NERN MX
   COAST THIS AFTERNOON...SFC WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WILL VEER FROM
   NLY TO NELY WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE OVERALL NET RESULT
   SHOULD BE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH RECENT RUC/NAM FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 100 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH BY 20Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
   
   27679724 27419840 26509879 26179833 26019718 27009737

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191658Z - 191900Z
   
   OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE EMILY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TX
   OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INITIALLY...SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE FCST TO BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADO
   POTENTIAL BY MID-AFTERNOON. THUS A TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 19Z.
   
   RECENT 88-D IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES PRIMARY OUTER
   CONVECTIVE BAND OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES EAST
   OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND MOVING WWD AROUND 30 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF
   CURRENT/FCST MOTION WILL TAKE THIS BAND INTO SOUTH PADRE AROUND
   1745Z...AND INTO BRO/HARLINGEN AREAS BETWEEN 18-19Z. ALTHOUGH VWP AT
   BRO SHOWS VERY LITTLE TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ATTM...SRH FROM
   50-75 M2/S2...STRONGER AND MORE VEERED /ELY/ 1 KM WINDS ARE FCST TO
   MOVE INLAND BETWEEN 19-21Z ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX ON THE ERN SIDE OF
   THE MAIN OUTER BAND. MEANWHILE...AS EMILY APPROACHES THE NERN MX
   COAST THIS AFTERNOON...SFC WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WILL VEER FROM
   NLY TO NELY WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE OVERALL NET RESULT
   SHOULD BE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH RECENT RUC/NAM FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 100 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH BY 20Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
   
   27679724 27419840 26509879 26179833 26019718 27009737

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0924 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 648...
   
   VALID 201424Z - 201600Z
   
   A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TX AS HURRICANE EMILY
   MOVES INLAND TODAY. AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REISSUED
   ACROSS SOUTH TX.
   
   VAD WIND PROFILES IN BROWNSVILLE CONTINUE TO SHOW 50 TO 70 KT OF ELY
   FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS THE RAINBANDS
   MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH TX.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
   
   25799774 26449902 27649950 28069876 27889766 26889721
   25899710

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 201609Z - 201715Z



CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN IA APPEARS TO BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BDRY
LAYER...AND THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE AREA SHORTLY.

REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET AROUND 2 KM OVER
ERN IA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTH OF PRESSURE
RISES /2-3 MB PER HOUR/ OVER ERN IA WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY NRN
IND OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z
SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE REMAINING CINH...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THUS THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH
CONVECTIVE LINE BY 18Z.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN AND SRN IA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS

VALID 201626Z - 201800Z



A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING JUST EAST OF OMAHA NEB. A
SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CLUSTER MOVES
EWD ACROSS SRN IA.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS FAR
WRN IA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CREATING
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SW IA WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE
700 MB AS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40
KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL
EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AS THE STORMS
SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AS THE STORMS REACH THE
VICINITY OF DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS

VALID 201707Z - 201900Z



THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST NORTH OF WW 650 ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM VICTORIA WWD TO NEAR/SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST NUMEROUS CELLS DEVELOPING IN WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE EMILY CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF MCALLEN TX. MODERATE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100-150 M2/S2...EXISTS FROM THE
LATITUDE OF VICTORIA SWD TO THE NRN EDGE OF WW 650. CONVECTIVE CELLS
WEST OF VICTORIA WERE SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL ROTATION...
INDICATING THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AREA...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO AND
EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE SWD INTO WW 650 BY MID AFTERNOON. THUS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SHORT TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED NORTH OF
WW 650 A WW MAY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...NERN IL...SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655...

VALID 211527Z - 211600Z



STORMS MAY MOVE INTO LAKE MI BEFORE STORMS HAVE TIME TO INTENSIFY
AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. HOWEVER...WW MAY BE NECESSARY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF LWR MI AND NRN IL.

AT 15Z...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EWD AT 30-40 KT AND EXTENDED
FROM WEST OF OSH TO BETWEEN RFD AND ORD. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...THE LINE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL REINTENSIFY BEFORE THEY REACH THE LAKE. ONCE STORMS MOVE EWD
INTO LAKE MI...WW WILL BE CANCELED.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV/MUCH OF VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD AND NRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211745Z - 211945Z
   
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS...AS CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS
   THAT PROGRESS ESEWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A SLIGHT RISK/WEATHER WATCH
   ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV LOCATED OVER SWRN PA MOVING
   ESEWD. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN WV AND NRN VA HAS BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AT 17Z. FARTHER
   EAST OVER MUCH OF MD...DEEP MOISTURE WAS NOT AS PREVALENT...AS
   EVIDENT BY THE 16Z ADG SOUNDING AND SFC DEWPTS THAT HAVE MIXED INTO
   THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN MD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SWLY
   10-20 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. BY 21Z...MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL MD SHOULD
   HAVE MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE FOR FOCUS
   FOR SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS 25-30 KT MID LEVEL NWLY
   FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS
   WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL WIND
   FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS/CELL MERGERS. FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
   OVER SRN VA/NRN NC...BUT SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM
   2000-2500 J/KG/ AND SUBTLE FORCING AHEAD OF MCV FURTHER NORTH MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   38837657 39417712 39687804 39627872 38997980 38568047
   37908117 37258137 36438111 36168078 36128003 36037882
   36077814 36187712 36827633

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND...WRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211747Z - 211915Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE
   EWD ACROSS WRN ND AND WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ENDS UP BE
   GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD
   ACROSS WRN SD INTO FAR ERN MT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH IN
   THE 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE BLACK
   HILLS WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE MT/ND
   STATE-LINE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING AS ASCENT INCREASES
   AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THIS...IT APPEARS
   INITIATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE BLACK HILLS AND WEST OF MINOT THIS
   AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE PRIMARY
   THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE
   AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   43630306 44050363 47330297 48030247 48060144 47830052
   47270038 45310086 43600150

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1812
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SRN WV AND FAR WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 211923Z - 212200Z



MCV OVER CENTRAL KY WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO ERN KY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH CONVECTION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITH DOWNWIND CONVECTION OVER
SRN WV AND FAR WRN VA.

MCV CENTERED NEAR LEXINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AROUND 15KTS
ACROSS ERN KY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE OVER
SRN WV AND FAR WRN VA...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH
MUCAPES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS /20-25 KTS FROM 3-5
KM FROM RECENT VWP AT WILMINGTON OH AND CHARLESTON WV/ SUGGEST
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTIVE MERGERS
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE MCV.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 211955Z - 212130Z



SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NE KS AND NW
MO. THE STORMS WILL MAY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS
AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE AIRMASS ACROSS NE KS AND NW
MO IS STILL SLIGHTLY CAPPED. APPARENTLY...ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM ERN IA EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MO IS
AIDING STORM INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY. THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 65 TO 75 F. THE KANSAS CITY PROFILER
CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NRN PA...VT...NH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221634Z - 221800Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS
   NY...VT...NH AND NRN PA. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NE TO SW
   ACROSS NRN VT...CNTRL NY INTO WRN PA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING IS HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS IN NRN AND
   WRN NY. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT
   FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. A MINI-SUPERCELL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
   AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED WITH
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE FASTER
   MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   43127266 41357650 41627829 42627830 45017419 45107211
   44217137

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...VA...NRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221726Z - 221900Z
   
   CONVECTION IS STARTING TO INITIATE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   VA AND NC. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON...A
   MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW STRONG ASCENT MOVING INTO
   THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE AS EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN
   ADDITION...A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ANALYZED
   OVER NRN VA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING INTO VA
   FROM THE WEST. THE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR MAY
   BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
   
   38288051 37668179 36588217 35558092 35907814 36957687
   37937692 38587766 38657861

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221739Z - 221945Z
   
   ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER ERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND PROPAGATE
   SWWD INTO THE HOUSTON VICINITY. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND
   DESTABILIZATION...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. RADAR INDICATES ECHO
   TOPS IN EXCESS OF 55000 FT AT 1730Z.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST PRESSURE RISES WITHIN COLD POOL
   GENERATED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WITH STEADY PRESSURE FALLS
   AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS...THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
   STEEPEN...AND ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   30879384 29709401 29219501 29139749 30829715 31729561

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0947 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WCNTRL WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662...
   
   VALID 231447Z - 231615Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 662 OVER THE
   NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A NEW WW EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED BETWEEN 1500Z AND 1530Z AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WRN WI.
   
   A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SCNTRL MN AND
   IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE CNTRL US
   UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE BOW IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE
   NEAR 1500 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOW AS
   SFC HEATING OCCURS THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW THE BOW TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
   INTO WRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A FORWARD SPEED OF 50 KT
   SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE BOW. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM ACROSS PARTS
   OF SRN MN WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...
   
   45039111 44478941 43898946 43349004 43769243 44369477
   45209480 45669429

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231656Z - 231830Z
   
   NUMEROUS STORMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT
   1-3 HOURS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL ND
   WITH 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD ACROSS THE REGION. ABOVE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS WITH MOST OF THE
   INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. AS A RESULT...THE CONVECTION IN CNTRL ND
   WITH ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT AHEAD
   OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS SWRN ND AND SERN MT. THE
   ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION WITH THE STORMS
   GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOSER TO SFC-BASED AS THE CAPPING INVERSION
   WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT. AS THE
   STORMS BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   48829761 47359698 46449786 46390020 47200135 48770038

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231707Z - 231900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN AR IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST CELLS...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...FROM 6.5 TO 7.5 C/KM. STRONG DAYTIME
   HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
   PLACE...RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
   3000 J/KG. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL THUS BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW PULSE
   SEVERE. GIVEN WEAK ELY FLOW AROUND SRN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE...STORMS
   WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY WWD...AND MAY MOVE INTO ERN OK LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   36189323 35849287 34969279 34369327 34239424 34649538
   35259588 35659574 36249442 36389363

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN/SRN AND CNTR WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663...
   
   VALID 231724Z - 231900Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS A BOW ECHO MOVES THROUGH THE
   ERN PART OF WW 663. THE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO CNTRL WI AND A WW
   MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF THE CURRENT WW.
   
   A BOWING MCS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN WI AND IS ASSOCIATED
   WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
   NRN MN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE FROM SE MN
   EXTENDING SSEWD INTO NRN IL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED NEAR
   THE BOUNDARY. AS THE BOW ECHO MOVES ESEWD AT 50 KT...THE FORWARD
   SPEED COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...SHOULD MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
   BECOME MARGINAL ACROSS ERN WI WHERE INSTABILITY WEAKENS
   SUBSTANTIALLY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...
   
   43008825 44159220 45479187 44298767