SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

IAH is now 41F at 5:53am, and I havn't checked yet, but I am sure my thermometer is probably in the upper 30s.

UPDATE: Just checked and my thermometer is reading 39.9F.

[Portastorm]

Hey EWG ... seen the 0z run of the GFS yet?

Heh, heh ... Hint: You're going to like it ... a lot!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

[vbhoutex]

We've bottomed out at 41.1º here in Spring Branch. Definitely the coldest of the season so far for us!!!! BBBBRRRRR!!!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey EWG ... seen the 0z run of the GFS yet?

Heh, heh ... Hint: You're going to like it ... a lot!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

yes, I do like it a lot! However, I am still skeptical of the 13 day GFS forecasts. If we can bring this same scenario down to day 4-5 though, then it would be a different story!

[Johnny]

I got up at daybreak and it was 34.7 degrees outside! I didn't turn the heat on last night and it was 53 degrees downstairs. The wife wasn't to happy about that.

[Portastorm]

Hey EWG ... seen the 0z run of the GFS yet?

Heh, heh ... Hint: You're going to like it ... a lot!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

yes, I do like it a lot! However, I am still skeptical of the 13 day GFS forecasts. If we can bring this same scenario down to day 4-5 though, then it would be a different story!

Oh, I know ... and sure enough, the 6z run looks very different with no Arctic air this far south. Nevertheless, I've read some posts from pro mets on other boards that the ensembles are suggesting a significant build-up of arctic air in Western Canada over the next 2 weeks. Whether or not that air gets released and what direction it heads ... that's the $10,000 Question at the moment.

By the way, got down to 43 degrees this morning at my house in North Austin.

[southerngale]

38° here this morning...brrrr. And a nice 54° right now. The cool weather sure is a nice change. And it's not raining!!!!

[weatherrabbit_tx]

northside of tomball, 37 on the needle dail, 45.3 on the digital, 42 @ hooks airport.. yes the sensor for the digital is protected under the patio and 20 ft. up., the needle dail is unshielded about the same height

[jasons2k]

My low was 41.

[Extremeweatherguy]

temperatures are really falling fast tonight! I am already down to 46.6F on my thermometer, and at this rate..another night in the 30s looks very possible.

I guess we shall see if the NWS updates their forecast later on (because currently they are only forecasting 45F)..

[JenBayles]

Brrrrr! I see the forecast low for my area is 47 for tonite. I just checked and it's already 46. Since the Dome held for the last round of rain, I'm hoping we'll catch some in a couple more days. Much as I hate watering when it's warm, I really despise it when the weather cools off. Dave & Friends are heading to Galveston for the day since the Lone Star Rally is going full force. I have to pass since I'm feeling crappy, but at least they'll have perfect motor-sickle weather.

[Yankeegirl]

Hey Jen, I was going to ask if you were heading down to ol galveston for the weekend?! Guess not, since your under the weather.... Hope ya feel better!! FYI, its 48 here!!

[vbhoutex]

Well, I thought I made a post earlier, but I don't see it here, so I guess I will repost. At that time it was almsot midnight and the temp was at 44.7º and I figured we would continue on down to the low 40's unless we had a start to the return flow from the E and/or SE. Well it looks like that happened since the temp is now up to 49.3º and the low was 44.7º. Now off to bed again(I fell asleep in my recliner )

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, I thought I made a post earlier, but I don't see it here, so I guess I will repost. At that time it was almsot midnight and the temp was at 44.7º and I figured we would continue on down to the low 40's unless we had a start to the return flow from the E and/or SE. Well it looks like that happened since the temp is now up to 49.3º and the low was 44.7º. Now off to bed again(I fell asleep in my recliner )

yes, a more extensive deck of upper clouds and a difference in wind direction led to warming temps after midnight. If this would not have happened, then it probably would have gotten much colder.

[southerngale]

Lovely....lots of rain in the forecast.

We still have a flood warning for Pine Island Bayou, although it has been steadily receding. It's not expected to fall below flood stage until around midnight Monday night (assuming no more rain), and rain chances start increasing tomorrow, getting more likely for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, according to NWS.

Can we get a break from rain? They've been wrong before though, so maybe it won't materialize. Send it northwest of here...other parts of Texas actually need it and we've had more than a surplus. Strange how that works out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB has said that he has been noticing a pattern this fall. As soon as things start to heat up again, the cold builds back. He said the same thing will happen this time too. This week will be generally warm across much of the nation east of the rockies, but the cold will be building up in western Canada. He then said that by the week after this one most of that same area of the U.S. should be back to or below normal temperature-wise. This means that things could get real interesting for us here in TX (and most other places) by the week of the 13th if his ideas hold up; and who-knows, but may be by Thanksgiving we will be right in the middle of another generally cool period. Wouldn't that be great?

In the meantime though, get ready for active weather Tomorrow through Tuesday, with the possibility of a severe MCS on Monday evening. Could get interesting...again...for SE Texas.

[GalvestonDuck]

Jen -- "full force" doesn't even begin to touch it. This place is c-r-a-z-y this weekend!!! We spent a few hours on just the little four-block stretch that they have blocked out on the Seawall and it was packed!! My best friend went to the Strand last night and they said it was too busy, so they ended up just hanging out at their favorite place and calling it an early night. The plan was to go to the Strand today and spend the day there. We have yet to make it. My best friend is sacked out on my couch right now taking a nap. So, now, we're probably going to end up going out there at night, when it's crazier. So far, three people have died (cyclists in wrecks). Nothing violent though. I pray to God it stays that way.

It's worse than Beach Party Weekend or Mardi Gras this year. I'll be interested and finding out how many attended.

And, to stay on topic -- it's refreshingly cool...and not rainy!

[JenBayles]

Hey Duckie (Dave just pulled in the driveway thank God!) have you heard any attendance figures for the rally yet? I think last year was 350,000+ bikes, so count the passengers and... who knows? I'm not wild about that big of crowds myself. Handn't heard about the deaths, but unfortunately, it always happens at these large gatherings. Someone gets a little too lit and goes down, or a 4-wheel vehicle driver doesn't see the bike. You always have to assume you're a target when driving a motorcycle. One more day and you'll have your island back Ducks.

[vbhoutex]

Jen, the first thing I thought about when Iheard about the deaths was Dave and I started praying that he wasn't one of them. Of course the prayers go out for the others that were affected too. So happy to know he is home safe!

Ok, what is this rain I am getting at the house this am? Looks like just some sea breeze(too early in the day) or a pop up or two. What have I missed that is causing this?

[JenBayles]

Hey Yankee - thanks for thinking of Dave. You don't know the agonies I go through when he's off on the bike and I'm not with him. He's probably the safest rider I know, but you can't count on everyone else on the road driving decent.

NWS just updated the discussion about 15 minutes ago - it's a warm front causing the rain this morning. Awaiting the upper level disturbance to bring the heavier rains tonite and tomorrow morning. Nice day to hole in and watch the weather, huh?