SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

[Extremeweatherguy]

new set of warnings down to our SW near Victoria..

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
410 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
DEWITT
KARNES

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF NORDHEIM...OR ABOUT 14 MILES EAST OF
KENEDY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NORDHEIM BY 415 PM CDT
YORKTOWN BY 430 PM CDT
CUERO BY 455 PM CDT

[Extremeweatherguy]

Intewresting discussion from the SPC. I guess all the convection to the south may be having an impact (i.e., stabilizing the atmosphere and cutting off inflow) as I was concerned about earlier. Although -- it looks like there is a small slot of undisturbed air between Houston and Matagorda which will need to be watched carefully as heating is maximized and we head towards rush hour. This area is just to our SW so any storms that form there have the potential to move into the metro area between 4-8PM.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60...

VALID 132035Z - 132200Z

STORMS/LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS WW.

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW...AND HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW -- WHERE A
COMMENSURATE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY IS NOTED. MEANWHILE...STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING/MOVING EWD INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO
W/SW OF DRT -- WITHIN UNDISTURBED/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS N TX AND ADJACENT
SRN OK...THREAT HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF WW WHERE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO EXIST FROM THE SWRN QUARTER OF WW WWD TOWARD DRT...WHERE A WEAK
DRY LINE APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WHICH HAS NOW
BEGUN PROGRESSING EWD. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION ACROSS THIS
REGION IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
POSSIBLE NEW WW...OR THE POSSIBLE ADDITION OF SEVERAL COUNTIES W OF
WW 60 INTO THIS WW.

I think this applies more to the areas that have already have lots of rain today. As you have said, most of the Houston metro area is still in that slot of "undisturbed" weather, so I think this really doesn't apply as much to us as it does to places like Austin and San Antonio.

ATM, I am watching those storms down by Victoria closely. If they expand or start moving any more eastward, then we could have a problem later on. The biggest threat though would be any storm that can develop independent of the main area of convection. If that happened, then I would expect the storm to go severe quickly.

[southerngale]

SG - I know that's some bad news for you. How did you make out with Monday's storms? Is your yard back to swamp again?

Not a swamp...at least yet. It's definitely wet, but I don't think I got as much rain as y'all did for once. Who knows what tonight and tomorrow will bring though?

[jasons2k]

I think this applies more to the areas that have already have lots of rain today. As you have said, most of the Houston metro area is still in that slot of "undisturbed" weather, so I think this really doesn't apply as much to us as it does to places like Austin and San Antonio.

ATM, I am watching those storms down by Victoria closely. If they expand or start moving any more eastward, then we could have a problem later on. The biggest threat though would be any storm that can develop independent of the main area of convection. If that happened, then I would expect the storm to go severe quickly.

Yeah I would definitely keep an eye on this and anything that forms between here and there....Basically the SE flank of the MCS and anything out of ahead of it needs to be watched.

[JenBayles]

SG - Keep those galoshes handy and I hope you won't need Duckies feet to evacuate with tonite.

[Yankeegirl]

Its started to rain here (well drizzle).... Here it comes....

[Extremeweatherguy]

that storm near Victoria is really starting to fire and looks like it might try to reach the Houston area in a few hours (if it holds together):

[web]http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=HGX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=586&centery=208&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.548&noclutter=0&showstorms=31&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1[/web]

Also, cells are beginning to fire within Harris county as well. I have the feeling everything might begin to pop here soon.

[Portastorm]

I think this applies more to the areas that have already have lots of rain today. As you have said, most of the Houston metro area is still in that slot of "undisturbed" weather, so I think this really doesn't apply as much to us as it does to places like Austin and San Antonio.

ATM, I am watching those storms down by Victoria closely. If they expand or start moving any more eastward, then we could have a problem later on. The biggest threat though would be any storm that can develop independent of the main area of convection. If that happened, then I would expect the storm to go severe quickly.

Yeah I would definitely keep an eye on this and anything that forms between here and there....Basically the SE flank of the MCS and anything out of ahead of it needs to be watched.

In case y'all were wondering ... most of our (Austin area) weather today and late this afternoon has been of the moderate-to-heavy rainfall variety with little severe weather other than flooding (which, of course, IS severe!). In fact, Marble Falls suffered some major flooding today according to news reports here.

[JenBayles]

Thus far, the Bear Creek Dome has repelled every drop of moisture that's tried to penetrate. Note the current "hole" on the west side of the current radar loop?! If that nice red "blob" between Houston and Victoria holds together, hopefully that cell will test the Power of the Dome...

[Extremeweatherguy]

more warnings west of Victoria, and these storms seem particularly nasty:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
554 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXC255-493-132315-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-070313T2315Z/
WILSON TX-KARNES TX-
554 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR KARNES AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 545 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FALLS CITY...OR ABOUT 13 MILES WEST OF KARNES
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FALLS CITY BY 610 PM CDT
KARNES CITY AND CESTOHOWA BY 615 PM CDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

BTW: I am a bit confused on why that cell NE of Victoria is not severe though. It has been showing hail signatures (at times severe ones) for the last 30 minutes or so and also seems to have a somwhat curved shape to it. I have a feeling this one will become severe soon.

[DJJordan]

Looking into the future ... even more convection firing (along the southern periphery of the upper Low) coming out of Mexico ..... Looks like a definite wet night with training settiing up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is it possible that all this may be a bust for Harris county northward? The latest tornado watch is now out, but it includes counties to our SW (with Harris county being the cutoff) and not places further north.



If it is indeed a bust, then in a way I am happy (because we will not see severe weather), but in another way I am upset because I was hoping for at least one more good lightning show out of all these promising-looking weather days...

[JenBayles]

I think it's waaaaay to soon to be calling it a "bust" EG. That's a whole lotta mess that needs to move East before canceling. Although, since the Dome appears to be in play today, who knows?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think it's waaaaay to soon to be calling it a "bust" EG. That's a whole lotta mess that needs to move East before canceling. Although, since the Dome appears to be in play today, who knows?

you're right, it is too soon. I am just getting a bit distcouraged by looking at the radar and seeing the activity barely moving closer over the last few hours, and now with the SPC having a watch to our south (and not over us), it makes me wonder if we will see anything at all out of this (other than drizzle). I really just do not want such a promising day to turn into being "clouds with drizzle" only. I mean I don't want damage or flooding or anything, but at least one good lightning show would be nice before this system moves on east and we dry out for the weekend.

[DJJordan]

I don't think this will end up being a bust. I think alot of the main activity happens overnight into tomorrow morning for Harris County .... Just gonna have to be patient and watch the radars.

[JenBayles]

I'm with you on that DJJ. We're just getting impatient! I've been watching the "Victoria Blob" for a couple of hours and see it's disintegrating as it comes under the influence of the Bear Creek Dome. No surprise there!

[Stratosphere747]

Not even close to being a "bust"

Most of the good discos talked about the biggest threat being to the SW. I believe Jason even touched on this. Houston could still get into the mix.

One heck of a line setting up near Victoria with a few tornado warnings out....

[DJJordan]

Yeah I saw those Tornado Warnings out there ..... it looks real nasty on radar .... I too have been watching the activity near Victoria this afternoon .... even had to go take a slight nap because I was watching that radar too much LOL ..... Gonna keep watching though ha ha

[Extremeweatherguy]

lots of new development popping up SW of Houston right now. I will be watching this closely to see how it interacts with that cell near El Campo.

update: radar now indicates that the El Campo cell has a 90% chance of hail and that it could be as big as pennies.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah I saw those Tornado Warnings out there ..... it looks real nasty on radar .... I too have been watching the activity near Victoria this afternoon .... even had to go take a slight nap because I was watching that radar too much LOL ..... Gonna keep watching though ha ha

I have been watching it way too much as well, and that is probably why I have been getting a bit impatient over this. I should have taken a nap like you did! lol.