Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST SUN OCT 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER NEXT WEEK,

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WHICH IS BRINGING PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALSO...LATEST MIMIC
TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED A MAXIMUM IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHICH WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...INCREASING EVEN MORE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH
THIS SCENARIO...THE ACTIVITY WILL CONCENTRATE MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO EVERY MORNING...WITH BETTER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EVERY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOIST WILL INCREASE EVEN
MORE LATER NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE.
LATEST GFS-SJU PROGNOSIS SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
PW VALUES BY FRIDAY...WITH A DECREASING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THIS MOMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 25/1600Z...WITH A VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TKPK...TNCM...TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJPS. AFTER 25/1600Z...EXPECT
SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WESTERN
AND SW SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...TO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS
AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS BETWEEN 25/1800Z-2200Z. SMOKE PLUME FROM GULF
FIRE COULD REACH TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TODAY...AND THIS MAY SEND
SOME SMOKE FROM THE CAPECO/GULF TANK FARM FIRE WESTWARD DURING THE
DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTY
NEAR SHOWERS...AND NEAR THE COAST. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CAPECO/GULF TAN FARM FIRE THIS MORNING.

[msbee]

good morning
Greetings from Aruba where it is hot and sunny.

What's the latest news on the fire Luis?
are you OK? are they getting it under control?

Barbara

[cycloneye]

good morning
Greetings from Aruba where it is hot and sunny.

What's the latest news on the fire Luis?
are you OK? are they getting it under control?

Barbara

The fire has been extinguished totally.Also no big problems in terms of the contamination from the smoke because the populalation along the path of the smoke was evacuated away.Now the investigation has started to find the cause of the explosions.

I live far away from that area so I am fine.

[msbee]

glad to hear that good news

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all .

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260830
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST MON OCT 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA. THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED AT ALL THE
LAST 24 HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONCENTRATE MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO EVERY MORNING...WITH BETTER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EVERY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOIST WILL INCREASE EVEN
MORE LATER NEXT WEEK...AS TUTT LOW FROM THE EAST CAUSES UPPER
RIDGE TO WEAKEN WITH MID TO UPPER MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING LAYER
MOISTURE. BY WEDNESDAY MID TO UPPER DYNAMICS BECOME MOST FAVORABLE
AS TUTT MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA...COMBINING WITH AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE...PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER FAVORABLE AREA
FOR ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GFS-SJU PROGNOSIS SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE IN PW
VALUES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A DECREASING TREND BY NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS MOMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF
TJPS...FROM 26/17Z THROUGH 26/22Z IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY VOLCANIC ASH OR STEAM FROM
MONTSERRAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 76 / 30 40 40 40
STT 87 78 88 78 / 30 30 30 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

06/71

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON OCT 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL RETROGRESS
INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH ENE FLOW. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 53W WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC - H5 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN A DECENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
TRADES STRONGER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO. THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE
FURTHER INLAND. ANTICIPATE DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALSO ACROSS
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA WED SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES.
THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH TSRA. VFR REST OF THE TAF SITES
WITH JUST VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS IN EFFECT FOR UNPROTECTED
WATERS DUE TO 20 KT WINDS AND SIX FOOT SEAS. A MODERATE SWELL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO OUR LOCAL ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT.
MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH EIGHT FOOT SEAS IN NRLY SWELL.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 AM AST TUE OCT 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. TUTT LOW WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING...WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED AT ALL THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONCENTRATE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO EVERY MORNING...WITH BETTER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
EVERY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
TODAY...THE WINDS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY THAN YESTERDAY...THEREFORE...
EXPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME STREAMERS ALSO
COULD DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOIST WILL INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE...AS TUTT LOW FROM THE EAST CAUSES UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN WITH
MID TO UPPER MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. BY
WEDNESDAY MID TO UPPER DYNAMICS BECOME MOST FAVORABLE AS TUTT
MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA...ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE...PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER FAVORABLE AREA FOR ENHANCED
DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS-SJU PROGNOSIS SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BY THE
COMPUTER MODELS... BUT STILL SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
MOISTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS. AT THIS
MOMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... INCLUDING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY IN THE
VICINITY OF TJPS AND TJBQ...FROM 27/17Z THROUGH 27/22Z IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY VOLCANIC ASH OR
STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY.

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET. LATEST 41043 BUOY
DATA SHOWS 6 FEET SWELLS...WITH WINDS NEAR 15 KTS ACROSS THESE
WATERS.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W ON TOP OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE MOVEMENT IS NOT EASY TO JUDGE RIGHT NOW.
STRONG SHOWERS IN ONE CELL FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W.
OTHER WEAKER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN
20W AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N. THE MOVEMENT IS NOT EASY TO JUDGE RIGHT NOW. THIS WAVE
JUST HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE ANALYSIS FOR THIS MAP. IT IS
POSSIBLE TO TRACK ITS MOVEMENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE
LAST FEW DAYS. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 11N
BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO PART
OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
PUERTO RICO DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
TO 25N BETWEEN 53W AND HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
52W AND 61W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 71W.

...ITCZ...

ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
8N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR
21N98W. A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALSO COVER THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF THE APPROACHING TEXAS TROUGH. A STATIONARY
FRONT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO DURING THE LAST SIX
HOURS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 53W AND HAITI.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W. OTHER ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 62W AND 71W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 18N80W TO
THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N75W...AND TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS. A SEPARATE AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND 83W...AND
ALONG THE PANAMA COAST TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 35W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON
TOP OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THAT ALSO COVERS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONE AREA
OF A 700 MB-TO-500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM COVERS THE AREA ALONG
68W/69W NEAR 27N. CLOUDS ARE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND
71W. A SECOND AREA OF 700 MB-TO-500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NEAR
27N54W. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING CLOUDS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN
50W AND 59W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N25W TO
21N29W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 21N29W TO 21N42W AND 22N53W.
THIS AXIS EVENTUALLY FEEDS INTO THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO PUERTO
RICO DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT GOES
FROM 34N19W TO 25N26W.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

The twave near the 57/58W should bring showers and tstorms during the next couple of hours in Guadeloupe. We hope some water for the trees, plants...because of the severe drought in most of the EC islands .

[Gustywind]

Weather is deteriorating east of my location. Sky is grey and menacing, no showers but gusts are pretty frequent during the last 5 minutes. Let's wait and see what could happen with this twave approaching the EC Islands.

[cycloneye]

Weather is deteriorating east of my location. Sky is grey and menacing, no showers but gusts are pretty frequent during the last 5 minutes. Let's wait and see what could happen with this twave approaching the EC Islands.

Keep us informed on todays weather there as here we will get it tommorow.

[expat2carib]

Rain, rain and rain here on Dominica Last half hour thunder and lightning and some wind gusts.

[Gustywind]

Rain, rain and rain here on Dominica Last half hour thunder and lightning and some wind gusts.

Waouw looks like a possible rainmaker? Just speaking about that and... Meteo-France Guadeloupe has just issued an yellow alert for Guadeloupe for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.
I will keep your informed my friends. Stay tuned.
Be safe expat2carib.

[Gustywind]

Weather is deteriorating east of my location. Sky is grey and menacing, no showers but gusts are pretty frequent during the last 5 minutes. Let's wait and see what could happen with this twave approaching the EC Islands.

Keep us informed on todays weather there as here we will get it tommorow.

Absolutely Luis as Guadeloupe is right now under an yellow alert since 08H45 PM
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf (french version)

[Gustywind]

Latest news in Guadeloupe:
Meteo-France has reported this morning a serious gust up to 100 kilometer per hour at La Désirade in Guadeloupe! This bad weather should continue at least tommorow night even Thursday morning. Nothing to report in my area except the 17,5 millimeters of water in vicinity of my location (Petit-Bourg). Sky is always uncertain but hopefully rain have stopped. Seems that things will deteriorate again tonight. We should experience another big round of showers and tstorms. Meteo-France emphasizes on the risk of suddents violents gusts under the squalls.

[cycloneye]

Meteo-France has reported this morning a serious gust up to 100 kilometer per hour at La Désirade in Guadeloupe!

I think that has to be an error.That is like a cat 3 hurricane.

[Gustywind]

Meteo-France has reported this morning a serious gust up to 100 kilometer per hour at La Désirade in Guadeloupe!

I think that has to be an error.That is like a cat 3 hurricane.

I hope that but the weather forecast of 12 AM is clear Cycloneye! Do you understand french Luis?
French Version:
VENT : Alizé modéré à assez-fort soufflant en général entre 20 et 35 km/h. Attention
surtout à de fortes et soudaines rafales sous les plus forts orages, 100 km/h ayant
déjà été enregistré à la Désirade ce matin.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST TUE OCT 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THEN INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 59 WEST AND JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL AID
IN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL STEER THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY EXPECT INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAYTIME...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND THE TUTT LOW SHIFTS FURTHER WEST PUTTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN
AN AREA MORE CONDUCIVE AND FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PRESENT WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION STILL SUGGEST THE MOST ACTIVE DAY TO BE
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCES FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
INCREASING ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF/IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC....WHILE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS WITH A VCSH POSSIBLE ALL TAF
SITES EXPECTED THROUGH 28/13Z...EXCEPT ACROSS TJMZ WHERE MVFR CONDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 27/23Z IN A TSRA OR SHRA.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR 12N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-15N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 22W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 1304 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE LEADS A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 57W-62W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 9N23W 8N35W 10N47W 9N53W
11N58W. ISOLATED/MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR
12W...AND BETWEEN 15W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO FROM WRN
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W ALONG 24N93W 19N96W INTO MEXICO TO 22N99W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM NW OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN
100 NM SE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
92W-94W. A 1008 MB LOW IS NEAR THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER
AT 30N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW CONNECTING
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM
THE LOW ALONG 30N86W TO 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 83W-87W. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS THE MIDWEST UNITED
STATES...TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO. THE FAR SE GULF IS COVERED BY A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE WRN ATLC. EXPECT SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE NW
BASIN FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 82W-84W. THE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE SE GULF AND INTO THE WRN ATLC
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N68W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ALSO SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 65W-71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W DUE TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR A 1007 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W...AND
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 60W HAVE
BEGUN TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS E OF 62W.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N77W TO 31N80W BECOMING WARM ACROSS NRN FLORIDA AND
THE NRN GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N W OF 75W. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE ERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE FAR WRN ATLC. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ACROSS S FLORIDA CONTINUING TO THE NE. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N66W. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTEND
FROM 23N57W TO 23N66W IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N68W. FARTHER E...A DYING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N20W TO 24N26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 22W SUPPORTS THE FRONT.

$$
WALTON