SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
GALVESTON BAY...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 345 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER 7 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SEABROOK...MOVING EAST AT 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATER...BOATERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WIND
AND HIGH WAVES. MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

[TexasSam]

Another nasty storm! Power was off for about 20 min. some high wind, small limbs, and twigs down, pea size hail.

[vbhoutex]

We got lots of noise and gusty winds and nasty looking clouds and a few spits of rain today. Daughter and Son-in-law were in SW Houston(Westbury) and said it was pouring.

[CajunMama]

For a weekend that was forecasted to be rainy it's been quite beautiful. We've had some overcast skies, some scattered rain showers but for the most part it's been great.

[southerngale]

We had some rather strong thunderstorms yesterday afternoon... not as bad as what TexasSam got. Just very heavy rain and a lot of thunder and lightning... loud thunder. We didn't get any rain on Saturday, when rain chances were a little higher. Today is higher than yesterday at 60% (same as Sat.), but I'm praying we get the same results as Saturday. We'll be swimming and playing washers, badminton, basketball, etc. as well as grilling outdoors.

May everyone take some time today to honor those Americans who have died while protecting our country's freedoms. God bless America!

[southerngale]

Well, there were severe thunderstorm warnings and parts of Jefferson County show radar estimates in the 6 - 8 inch rain with even a small area in the 8 - 10 inch range. I periodically checked the radar and very heavy thunderstorms were nearly stationary over the same area, for hours, ruining any outdoor Memorial Day plans for those folks. Where I was in Jefferson County... just a few sprinkles.

[southerngale]

Wow, the radar is really lighting up. There was nothing there, then a few minutes later, strong developing storms heading this way and in other spots. A couple of warnings just went up:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WILDWOOD...THICKET...SARATOGA...
KOUNTZE...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 305 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THICKET...AND MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
THICKET BY 320 PM CDT...
THICKET BY 325 PM CDT...
SARATOGA BY 345 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
303 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ROCKLAND...COLMESNEIL...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 301 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF COLMESNEIL...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST
OF TOWN BLUFF. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
COLMSNEIL AT 320 PM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

Current Radar


Edit 25 minutes later: The temperature has gone from 87 to 70 since I posted this and it's dark and windy out. lots of t&l. The storms aren't here yet, but very close. (in case anyone wanted an update. lol)

[Yankeegirl]

Not a drop or a rain cloud in sight today!

[srainhoutx]

Looks like an active weather day today. Radar is beginning to light up with various outflow boundries and pre frontal trough approaching. Cool front is making progress and is currently nearing the I-35 Corridor...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...HGX...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION OVER SE TEXAS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST G-12 IR SHOWING FAIRLY RAPID
CLOUD TOP COOLING AND EXPANSION IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO OVER GONZALES AND
GUADALUPE COUNTIES IN SE TX. WV IMAGERY INDICATES UL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN TX LENDING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WITH LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING WITH THIS
CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ALONG
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM
1.5-1.7". MOISTURE SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TX. COULD EXPECT 1.5-2"/HR RAIN
RATES WITH THIS CONVECTION FROM BEXAR/WILSON/GUADALUPE/GONZALES COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


SPC has our area in a Slight Risk this morning...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[jasons2k]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271338Z - 271515Z

...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX...

EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL SOON MERGE INTO A LARGER MCS
OVER SCNTRL TX AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. AIRMASS IS QUITE BUOYANT SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP...BRO AND
EVEN DRT ALL SUPPORT A WEAKER THAN NORMAL CAP WITH 900MB BASED
PARCELS APPARENTLY UNINHIBITED. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IT APPEARS THE MCS WILL SLOWLY
PROPAGATE SEWD WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL
CONTINUE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..DARROW.. 05/27/2009


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[jasons2k]

Shot at 2009-05-27

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner w/ HCFCD:

Flash Flood event unfolding over our SW counties and Matagorda Bay this morning.

Short wave over N Mexico has resulted in an eruption of strong thunderstorms from VCT to Palacios. Rainfall rates of 2.5-4.5 inches per hour have occurred over the northern part of Calhoun County, SE and central Victoria County, and then ESE into Southern Jackson and W Matagorda County. Radar trends from both CRP and HGX show little movement of this band with some northward movement on the western flank.

Additional large cluster of storms SE of KSAT which has produced 4.5-7.5 inches of rain in the last 3 hours is drifting ESE. PER SPC meso discussion, expect an large MCS to form within this region in the next 1-3 hours as KSAT convection drifts SE. Nearly stationary storms will expand slowly ENE into all of Matagorda and portions of Wharton counties. Excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour are likely with these storms. Storm totals may approach 8-12 inches over portions of Calhoun, Victoria, and Jackson counties leading to extensive flash flooding.

Highly mesoscale event may remain completely SW of the Houston area as high level anvil blow-off is already tempering daytime heating this far east. We will likely see this cluster drop to our SW and then off the coast. Weak front is still to our NW and is convection clears out soon enough and enough surface heating occurs then we may see a few late afternoon storms along he frontal boundary.

Mesoscale trends make forecasting beyond about 4 hours useless.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I have a funny feeling the heavy storms to our SW will disrupt inflow to the weaker showers North of them, and unless the line slides up our way (maybe with the San Antonio cells moving a bit North of due East while the entire line creeps slowly Northward) the immediate HOU area may not see much rain.


But it is just a funny feeling.

[srainhoutx]

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/27/09 1357Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1345Z BELGE
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...INCREASING CONVECTION AND LIKELY MERGERS NEXT FEW HOURS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR SO OVER JACKSON/CALHOUN/VICTORIA COUNTIES IN SE TX AS
SEEN FROM BOTH IR AND VIS IMAGERY. WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY UPSTREAM
OF CONVECTION AS SEEN IN VIS IS FOCUSING NEW CONVECTION ALONG IT AND IN
BETWEEN THE TWO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MERGER
OF THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. GOES SOUNDER
DERIVED PW AND LI FIELDS INDICATE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER SE TX AND WITH INCREASING UL DIFFLUENCE..THESE FACTORS SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS BOTH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE SLOW MOVING AND CELL TRAINING
IS OCCURRING WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MERGING..MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES
INDICATE 1-2"/HR RAIN RATES CURRENTLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 2"
PER HALF HOUR RATES OVER PARTS OF ATASCOSA/KARNES/DEWITT/GOLIAD COUNTIES
AS THE MERGER OCCURS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The anvil cloud sure has darkened the sky overhead. Can't see it from HGX radar due the angle, but the CRP radar in long range mode shows echoes from the anvil over Harris County.

[srainhoutx]

HGX agrees Ed...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
READJUSTED THE FCST TO FOCUS POPS FURTHER SOUTH. STORMS NOW
FOCUSING ON OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS AS WELL AS
LANDBREEZE/SEABREEZE CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR MATAGORDA BAY.
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF SHOULD LIMIT HEATING DOWNSTREAM FOR A
COUPLE HOURS BUT MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR SWD LATER THIS MORNING. SOUNDING PARAMETERS (AND
ONGOING RADAR) TRENDS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. TRAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
APPEARS THE 4KM WRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WILL WATCH
TRENDS NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO DO AN UPDATE TO REDUCE
POPS AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTN WITH IT SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY CLUSTERING UP OFFSHORE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. 47

[jasons2k]

Yeah, we had some sun earlier but now it has clouded-up here north of Houston. If this keeps up, it'll all stay south.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There may be lightning activity in the anvil. Radar shows precip still quite distant from Houston, but I think I have heard a couple of low rumbles that could be distant thunder.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1114 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

TXZ200-210>214-226-227-235>238-271800-
LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-
JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1114 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING LIKELY THROUGH NOON...

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY FROM A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CENTERED OFF THE COAST BETWEEN MATAGORDA AND
FREEPORT. THE LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLY MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO EL CAMPO. BY NOON THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
WELL OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 PM.

TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING...STAY INDOORS
OR INSIDE A NON CONVERTIBLE VEHICLE.

[jasons2k]

More from Jeff:

Excessive rainfall continues to pound Matagorda Bay area.

Radar indicated 5-8 inches of rain has fallen since 600am from Port Lavaca to Palacios. CoCoRaHS observer in Port Lavaca recorded 2.45 inches in 30 minutes with a so far total of 4.45 inches. Upstream MCS from Victoria back to the SW will bring another bout of excessive rainfall across all of Calhoun and Jackson counties. Storm totals will be approaching 10-12 inches in isolated spots especially just N of Port Lavaca and SE of VCT.

Given flash flooding in progress across N Calhoun and SE Victoria County into S Jackson County additional rainfall will only worsen the ongoing flooding. Upstream radar hour precip. indicated rainfall rates of 2.5-4.5 inches approaching the region already hard hit. An additional 3-5 inches on top of the 5-8 inches that has already fallen will be possible. Extensive flash flooding in progress will continue.

Upstream MCS is also showing a bowing signature on radar images and the leading edge may contain damaging winds of 55-65mph. Leading gust front should reach VCT within the hour and spread ESE into Lavaca Bay by 100pm