Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

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CrazyC83
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Re: Tornado outbreak underway - February 10-11, Plains/Midwest/S

#301 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 10, 2009 6:40 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:The wind shear interacting with the instability axis...does that mean that the chance grows later in the evening for longer lived, stronger tornadoes?


Yes. Conditions in the Dallas area will be more favorable than they were in the OKC area. The question is if any supercells will develop in front of the sqall line.


That's the biggest question mark. The relative lack of shear has prevented a much larger outbreak in the OKC area despite amazing radar signatures...

As for ratings, I'm guessing Edmond was a solid EF2 (maybe low EF3), while the area around the Target near Bethany I am guessing was an EF1 based on damage reports.
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Re: Tornado outbreak underway - February 10-11, Plains/Midwest/S

#302 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 10, 2009 6:43 pm

Very concerned for areas E of I-35 Corridor in OK, TX, AR, and NW LA later. Rain wrapped tornadoes "could" be a big problem.
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#303 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 10, 2009 6:50 pm

Activity starting to pick up to the south...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC485-110015-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0025.090210T2348Z-090211T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
548 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 548 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF IOWA PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS OF 50 MPH
ARE LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BURKBURNETT...CASHION...IOWA
PARK...PLEASANT VALLEY...SHEPPARD AFB AND WICHITA FALLS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

LAT...LON 3388 9878 3412 9865 3410 9855 3406 9850
3406 9846 3391 9842 3383 9861 3383 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 219DEG 27KT 3386 9869

$$

CMS
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#304 Postby RL3AO » Tue Feb 10, 2009 6:52 pm

Theres a few cells trying to pop in Texas ahead of the dry line.

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#305 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 10, 2009 6:57 pm

The northernmost of them, approaching Montague, looks the most interesting.
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#306 Postby RL3AO » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:00 pm

That green line separtes the FWD and OUN WFO's. Lets see if FWD warns it the moment it enters their AOR. 68 dBZ on radar. :lol:
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#307 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:05 pm

DFW 22z

Image
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Re:

#308 Postby RL3AO » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:06 pm

RL3AO wrote:That green line separtes the FWD and OUN WFO's. Lets see if FWD warns it the moment it enters their AOR. 68 dBZ on radar. :lol:


:lol: :lol: :lol:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 604 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF STONEBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NOCONA BY 625 PM
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Re:

#309 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:07 pm

Bunkertor wrote:DFW 22z

Image


Tiny cap remaining at the low levels.
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#310 Postby RL3AO » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:09 pm

2000 j/kg cape with high shear and LI's around -8 just west of Fort Worth. Theres that one cell there. I'm thinking it could be a ticking time bomb.
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Re: Re:

#311 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:DFW 22z

Image


Tiny cap remaining at the low levels.


25 mbars - should be "gone with the wind", soon.
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#312 Postby RL3AO » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:15 pm

Montague cell is showing signs of rotation. It will be crossing the border soon into Oklahoma.
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#313 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:17 pm

It looks like we have entered the second phase. Should be a tornado warning soon on that cell if trends continue.
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Re:

#314 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:19 pm

RL3AO wrote:2000 j/kg cape with high shear and LI's around -8 just west of Fort Worth. Theres that one cell there. I'm thinking it could be a ticking time bomb.


+ the Wichita one
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#315 Postby RL3AO » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:20 pm

80+ kts rotation. Surprised theres no TOR on it yet.

Image
Last edited by RL3AO on Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#316 Postby RL3AO » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:20 pm

There it is.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 619 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF NOCONA..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
NOCONA BY 625 PM CST...
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Re:

#317 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:22 pm

RL3AO wrote:80+ kts rotation. Surprised theres no TOR on it yet.

[img]http://i44.phot... O/Feb%2010%2009%20SVR/0017br.png[/img]


It is
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#318 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:22 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if something is on the ground there.
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Re: Tornado outbreak underway - February 10-11, Plains/Midwest/S

#319 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:24 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 8...9...

VALID 110013Z - 110145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 8...9...CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
MORE DISCRETE STORMS FROM NW TX INTO ERN OK HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE...BUT THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
CNTRL OK TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS. ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE LINE INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ON THE
NRN END AND A BOW ECHO MOVING RAPIDLY NE THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR
NORMAN. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN OK SSWWD THROUGH WRN TX WILL
SURGE RAPIDLY EWD OVERNIGHT AND OVERTAKE DRYLINE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS THROUGH OK AND TX. DEEP LAYER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
UPPER JET AND INCREASING LINEAR FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE
QLCS. THROUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL ALONG THE LINE...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

FARTHER EAST IN WARM SECTOR...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO INCREASE
MOST LIKELY DUE TO WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A
THERMAL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE
OF MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THIS REGION LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN
APPROACHING UPPER JET EXIT REGION SUGGEST THE MORE DISCRETE WARM
SECTOR STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 02/11/2009


ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32039932 34979788 36739641 36869474 36059405 34829452
33349731 32039932
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#320 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Feb 10, 2009 7:24 pm

BAMF

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC083-095-307-319-327-399-110115-
/O.NEW.KSJT.SV.W.0002.090211T0020Z-090211T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN COLEMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CONCHO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN MENARD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST
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