SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Hot! Hot! Hot!

[KatDaddy]

I am seeing more showers popup just W and NW of Houston moving SE. This could be trend toward more development across Houston Metro

[jasons2k]

Yeah, that concerns me too. There was supposed to be a *chance* of rain today but the rain shield wasn't supposed to affect us yet. I have people coming over for a pool party and burgers on the grill. Looks like those plans are in the dumpster. This is depressing!! I'm starting to feel like I live in Seattle.

I generally praise the NWS but this was busted BADLY, by them and all the TV mets. Here is the AFD from less than three hours ago:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE B/CS AREA AS WELL AS INTO
HOUSTON/MADISON COUNTIES. UPDATED FORECAST FOR LIKELY POPS IN
THESE AREAS. LOOK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
POSSIBLY RE-DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

And the in-depth discussion just 6 hours ago:

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM KJCT TO KLFK THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS
OVER E TX MAINLY FROM CROCKETT TO LUFKIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF E TX INTO THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF SE TX TODAY AND MAY ONLY PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS A COLLEGE
STATION TO LIVINGSTON LINE. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOME
TODAY BUT MAX TEMPS NEAR 90F WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 40-50 PERCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR TODAY GIVEN LIFT FROM THE BOUNDARY AND THE SEA BREEZE.

Basically, it was supposed to not be much different than yesterday with the bulk of the rain just to our north, some clouds moving in, and isolated/scattered thunderstorms popping up this afternoon with the seabreeze and afternoon heating.

Nope!! Sorry! No pool for you!!

OK, I'm done venting.

[KatDaddy]

At least you can still grill burgers That really sounds good right about now.

You can still enjoy the pool if there is no lightening.

[vbhoutex]

I guess this means it is already raining at your abode Jason? We still aren't getting anything down here in Spring Branch, but it sure looks like we will. I still need to get one of my vehicles washed, but what's the use?

[jasons2k]

Yeah, we've been getting a steady rain all morning. But the latest AFD and radar trend is a bit encouraging. Maybe we'll see some sun this afternoon?? I hope so, but they don't sound too confident.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
930 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE 1ST PERIOD FCST BASED ON LATEST
OBS/TRENDS. WEAK SLOW MOVING OR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
ABOUT ONE COUNTY NORTH OF OUR CWA HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. STRATIFORM RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOSTLY WARMING TOPS EXCEPT FOR NW ZONES.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AND WILL MENTION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN ZONES
WHERE A SURFACE FOCUS EXISTS AND HIGHER PW`S ARE POOLING. ALSO CUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A BIT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. WHAT MAY
END UP HAPPENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS STRATIFORM RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND MAY SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...BOTH THE SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH COULD
BECOME A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 47

[JenBayles]

Light rain under the BC Dome since about 8:30 this morning. Not so concerned about the area coming in from our NW since it appears to be weakening over time. Now noticing things bumping up to the SW and wonder if that will get going later with heating?

[srainhoutx]

Yeah, that concerns me too. There was supposed to be a *chance* of rain today but the rain shield wasn't supposed to affect us yet. I have people coming over for a pool party and burgers on the grill. Looks like those plans are in the dumpster. This is depressing!! I'm starting to feel like I live in Seattle.

I generally praise the NWS but this was busted BADLY, by them and all the TV mets. Here is the AFD from less than three hours ago:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE B/CS AREA AS WELL AS INTO
HOUSTON/MADISON COUNTIES. UPDATED FORECAST FOR LIKELY POPS IN
THESE AREAS. LOOK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
POSSIBLY RE-DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

And the in-depth discussion just 6 hours ago:

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM KJCT TO KLFK THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS
OVER E TX MAINLY FROM CROCKETT TO LUFKIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF E TX INTO THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF SE TX TODAY AND MAY ONLY PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS A COLLEGE
STATION TO LIVINGSTON LINE. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOME
TODAY BUT MAX TEMPS NEAR 90F WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 40-50 PERCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR TODAY GIVEN LIFT FROM THE BOUNDARY AND THE SEA BREEZE.

Basically, it was supposed to not be much different than yesterday with the bulk of the rain just to our north, some clouds moving in, and isolated/scattered thunderstorms popping up this afternoon with the seabreeze and afternoon heating.

Nope!! Sorry! No pool for you!!

OK, I'm done venting.

That's ok Jason, I had planned to get yard work done this morning, before this mess moved in. Opened the door to let the dogs out at 7:00 AM just cloudy and by 9:00AM stratoform rains falling lightly at my location. We have a big 80th birthday celebration in town this evening for a very dear friend. Hope it doesn't force that crowd inside all evening. Just wished I had moved the pool furniture cushions in at 7 AM lol

[southerngale]

Yeah, that concerns me too. There was supposed to be a *chance* of rain today but the rain shield wasn't supposed to affect us yet. I have people coming over for a pool party and burgers on the grill. Looks like those plans are in the dumpster. This is depressing!! I'm starting to feel like I live in Seattle.

lol Jason... that's too funny. I was just saying last night that I felt like we were in Seattle and started wondering if we actually got more rain than them, even if they're known for it. The saturated grounds and Flood Warnings don't lie.

We have a big shindig to go to later this afternoon too. It's been put off already since spring, because of all the previous rain. There's rain all around me, but it's not raining here so far. I hope it can somehow hold off until later tonight, so we can get our party in. The 60% chance doesn't look promising though. *crosses fingers & toes*

[jasons2k]

Well it's breaking-up and I can see some patches of blue sky to the north and NW. I'm keeping my fingers crossed this PM will be OK for grilling, etc. At least it wasn't a total washout today

[JenBayles]

Yeah great.... sun. Now it can steam and blow up the next round of storms.

[KatDaddy]

Still overcast down south in League City

[CajunMama]

It only got up to 85 today and that was this morning. It's fallen to 78 at the present time. I'm enjoying this cloud cover. Tomorrow's high is forecasted to be 83. What a treat!

[JenBayles]

Looks like we got enough heating to stir up another line of storms between Houston and Bryan/ College Station. Man did it get steamy when that sun came out?!

[KatDaddy]

Yep Jen the radar is showing the developing line of storms headng SE. This Summer reminds me of 1979 as well as others.
Very wet with tropical systems. If we have another Rita threat I may call on you as an evacuation center.....its only us 3 and no pets. I will not go through another Rita experience.

[jasons2k]

We had a nice break, but I'm about to get nailed.

[jasons2k]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
832 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 829 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THE PUBLIC REPORTED A
FUNNEL CLOUD OVER THE WOODLANDS. THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING THIS
FUNNEL WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORTER HEIGHTS...
WOODBRANCH...
PATTON VILLAGE...
ROMAN FOREST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3012 9542 3004 9526 3016 9511 3029 9524

[Ptarmigan]

Yep Jen the radar is showing the developing line of storms headng SE. This Summer reminds me of 1979 as well as others.
Very wet with tropical systems. If we have another Rita threat I may call on you as an evacuation center.....its only us 3 and no pets. I will not go through another Rita experience.

1979 was a very wet and cool year for Houston. That same year, TS Claudette and Elena made landfall. Also, TD 20 formed in September and caused serious flooding.

[KatDaddy]

It dumped 22.5" in a 24 hour period in Pearland at the time.

[Ptarmigan]

It dumped 22.5" in a 24 hour period in Pearland at the time.

43" in 24 hours near Alvin.

[TexasSam]

With all the lightning to my North tonight I thought I would try something different. I took my digital camera out and waited for a good lightning flash and pushed the button. On my 3rd. try I got this much to my shock!



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