SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[southerngale]

NE of Beaumont has gotten a lot of rain. Parts of Beaumont have gotten decent totals, as well as surrounding spots. Nada here! I went outside and walked through the grass to see if maybe I just missed it coming down, and couldn't tell if it had rained. If the ground isn't wet AT ALL, I can only assume that I got nothing or certainly no more than just a sprinkle if it isn't even noticeable.

It keeps missing me, although it's often really close like last night, when it knocked out my power, but didn't even rain here!

That's because you didn't wash your car, water your lawn and do a rain dance. Do that and you could possibly get 4-6" and a high temp for the day of 80 like Bre and I did

Well, I'm glad you got some rain. I've done a few rain dances and I have been watering my lawn. In fact, I have a sprinkler going right now. I didn't wash my car, though.

2 out of 3 ain't bad.

I should have gotten something!

[jasons2k]

The initial storms are going-up not far to my N and NE - which is where I want to see them

I also had an additional .24" yesterday, bringing my total to 3.46"

[Ed Mahmoud]

Warning on Calcasieu Parish cell.





I won $96 at the L'Auberge du Lac a couple of months ago playing blackjack. Had been visiting our field near Gueydan.

[southerngale]

My weather alert just went off... I have Jefferson and Orange counties activated. Of course, nary a drop near me.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MAURICEVILLE...BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 459 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTH OF MAURICEVILLE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTH OF BRIDGE CITY BY 530 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 2999 9378 3001 9399 3022 9398 3023 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 014DEG 1KT 3013 9387

[Yankeegirl]

nothing here, looks like some of the cells are moving in my direction from the north, but they seem like they hit a brick wall!! im jealous!!

[southerngale]

Quite a few warnings being issued around here... to my west and to my east in Texas, and several in Louisiana as well. A lot of the same areas keep getting rain, but it won't touch me.

[srainhoutx]

I saw power distribution set a record today for TX. Not surprising.

[Yankeegirl]

its thundering here!! but its to the east of me.... nice to hear it though!

[Yankeegirl]

Of course a nice sized storm just blew up to the east of me.... and my dad called me from Katy letting me know he got a downpour this afternoon!! Still dry as a bone here!!

[vbhoutex]

After a high of 102ºf today at the house(official at iah 98ºf) we ended up with that pop-up tstorm to your East and 0.50" of rain.

[southerngale]

Some storms developed in the evening and I finally got some rain! I don't know how much, but it rained fairly heavy to moderate for a good while. Not a drought buster by any stretch of the imagination, but it definitely helped!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Humungous build ups all around, not a drop.



Ack!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
444 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS THE ONGOING THEME ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS HEADING INTO MID-JULY. EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY THIS WEEK HAS
BROUGHT LESS PRECIPITABLE COVERAGE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY`S SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS`.
SOUTHERN PLAINS ENERGY DIVING DOWN AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED 5H RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDE DOWN INTO
EAST TX/LA UPON N-NE`ERLY 7H STEERING FLOW. THE RIDGE DOESN`T SEEM TO
MAKE A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD EXPANSION UNTIL THIS WEEKEND SO IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THAT OUR FAR EASTERN FA COULD GET CLIPPED BY SCT LATE
DAY CONVECTION. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
RESIDES JUST OFF THE COAST...850 MB CONVERGENT ZONE LYING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE ELEMENTS HAVE LEFT SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. PM 20 POPS THROUGH DAY 7 WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATE DAY BREEZE ACTIVITY DUE TO SYNOPTIC EASTERN EXPANSION OF
RIDGE.

THE HEAT ADVISORY IS BACK IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LOW TO
MID 70F DEW POINTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL EQUATE TO HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105F-108F RANGE BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRIER
INTERIOR AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA PER EASTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE BETTER REALIZED ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR AS TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MIXES IT DOWN TO SFC...POSSIBLY
TAKING EARLY MORNING NEAR 70F DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50/LOWER 60S BY 4 PM. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL ALSO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT TWO OTHER FACTORS THAT ARE SOMETIMES OVERLOOKED...HIGH
MORNING MINIMUMS AND THE ACCUMULATIVE EFFECTS ON THE BODY. SUNRISE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S (PER 1.5"-1.7" PWATS) AND LONG RUNS OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT DAY-AFTER-DAY DOES NOT ALLOW THE BODY TO FULLY
RECOVER...THESE FACTS EVENTUALLY LEAD TO HEAT EXHAUSTION/STROKE.
WEEKEND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS MORE INTERIOR REGIONS
THAT WILL EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL STILL ACHIEVE
AMBIENT 100F-105F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. ARGUMENTS FOR OR AGAINST
ONGOING ADVISORIES SEEMING QUITE TRIVIAL AT THIS POINT AS WE GO
THROUGH THIS ABNORMALLY HOT AND DRY SUMMER. 31

[Tireman4]

Humungous build ups all around, not a drop.



Ack!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
444 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS THE ONGOING THEME ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS HEADING INTO MID-JULY. EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY THIS WEEK HAS
BROUGHT LESS PRECIPITABLE COVERAGE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY`S SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS`.
SOUTHERN PLAINS ENERGY DIVING DOWN AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED 5H RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDE DOWN INTO
EAST TX/LA UPON N-NE`ERLY 7H STEERING FLOW. THE RIDGE DOESN`T SEEM TO
MAKE A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD EXPANSION UNTIL THIS WEEKEND SO IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THAT OUR FAR EASTERN FA COULD GET CLIPPED BY SCT LATE
DAY CONVECTION. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
RESIDES JUST OFF THE COAST...850 MB CONVERGENT ZONE LYING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE ELEMENTS HAVE LEFT SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. PM 20 POPS THROUGH DAY 7 WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATE DAY BREEZE ACTIVITY DUE TO SYNOPTIC EASTERN EXPANSION OF
RIDGE.

THE HEAT ADVISORY IS BACK IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LOW TO
MID 70F DEW POINTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL EQUATE TO HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105F-108F RANGE BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRIER
INTERIOR AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA PER EASTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE BETTER REALIZED ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR AS TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MIXES IT DOWN TO SFC...POSSIBLY
TAKING EARLY MORNING NEAR 70F DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50/LOWER 60S BY 4 PM. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL ALSO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT TWO OTHER FACTORS THAT ARE SOMETIMES OVERLOOKED...HIGH
MORNING MINIMUMS AND THE ACCUMULATIVE EFFECTS ON THE BODY. SUNRISE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S (PER 1.5"-1.7" PWATS) AND LONG RUNS OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT DAY-AFTER-DAY DOES NOT ALLOW THE BODY TO FULLY
RECOVER...THESE FACTS EVENTUALLY LEAD TO HEAT EXHAUSTION/STROKE.
WEEKEND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS MORE INTERIOR REGIONS
THAT WILL EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL STILL ACHIEVE
AMBIENT 100F-105F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. ARGUMENTS FOR OR AGAINST
ONGOING ADVISORIES SEEMING QUITE TRIVIAL AT THIS POINT AS WE GO
THROUGH THIS ABNORMALLY HOT AND DRY SUMMER. 31

BILL THE CAT!! I love Billy and Boingers!!!!

[jasons2k]

I didn't get a single drop yesterday.

And I pretty much don't like anything about that discussion. At least it will be good pool weather but geez we need some more rain.

[vbhoutex]

Official high today at IAH was 98ºf with a HI of 111ºf. So we are under another extreme heat advisory still. HIgh at the house was 102ºf. Currently 91.3ºf with an hi of 100ºf. Go away humidity as long as it is hot. Better yet, go away hot!!

[srainhoutx]

A very sobering e-mail from Jeff Lindner/HCFCD this mid day...

Well folks…it is still hot and dry across the area with little relief.



Biggest weather factor will be whether the high is in the 97-99 range or in the 100-103 range….not that it really matter…over 95 is all about the same. Upper level ridge centered over NW TX early this afternoon with strong suppression of the mid and low levels in progress. Afternoon dewpoints have been slower to mix out allowing very high/dangerous heat index values (111 at IAH yesterday). Heat advisory will continue into Saturday as criteria calls for heat index to fall below 105 for 24 hours. Additionally overnight lows are struggling to get much below 80 and heat stress builds over time…which is now going on about a month. Only one day since June 9th has been below 95 degrees and that was this past Tuesday with a high of 91 due to rain and clouds.



While the rains helped this past Tuesday the warm afternoon are/have dried the grounds quickly and this will continue. Will see afternoon temps tick up a degree every couple of days as the ground and vegetation dry. Updated drought monitor now places a large section of the area under a severe drought with exceptional conditions around Matagorda Bay…meaning a once in a 50 year event. Some places (mainly our southwest counties) have not had 10 inches of rain this year. Even if our typical summer pattern kicked in right now with scattered afternoon storms…it would not help the drought conditions much. You can clearly see signs that stresses are growing from grasses and small shrubs to large shrubs and small to even medium sized trees. The large crown (tree top) fire in Colorado County this past weekend is a strong signal indicating that even the largest trees are drying. Crown fires in our area are very rare and extremely dangerous as they burn fast and hot similar to fires in S CA and the Rockies. Luckily our winds tend to go calm during the night in summer allowing offensive operations to control such fires.



Little change in the overall pattern as the heat ridge waffles back and forth over the area. The ridge heads back westward this weekend and then builds back to the north of the area next week. Eastern side “ ring of fire” is a tad too far east (over LA) for shortwave energy to affect us. Next week position of the ridge slightly more northward may allow a deeper easterly flow allowing cooling mid levels and open the door for energy to round the ridge at us from the east…not confident in this solution so will go status quo with 20% along the seabreeze every afternoon….but most will see none. Really no change for the next 7-10 days as ridge that has been with us since early May hangs tough.



The End Game:



Our only hope until about October is the Atlantic tropics which are calm as can be at the moment. Event the typical easterly waves are passing well to our south directed by the ridge overhead. It will take a strong system to buck the ridge and help displace it…a large tropical cyclone. I really do not see much of any other hope and past heat/droughts in TX have been broken by this manner (1980/ Hurricane Allen).



I think mother nature has shown her cards…however… with the now confirmed onset of ENSO conditions El Nino in the eastern Pacific. All Nino regions have warmed above normal with Nino 1+2 and 3 showing the greatest increases suggestive that the western Pacific warm pool is shifting eastward under rapidly weakening trade winds…a classic El Nino signal. Additionally, satellite observations show decreasing convective coverage over the SW Pacific with increasing coverage south of Hawaii and west of South America…El Nino signal.



I think this will be our drought ender here in Texas…but not until late September at the earliest. El Nino conditions usually bring wet and cool conditions to TX in the fall and winter months. I suspect we will transition quickly into a much wetter pattern come October and remain fairly wet through most of this winter into next spring as El Nino favors an extensive overrunning sub-tropical jet stream pattern. This means at least we should see our normal monthly rainfall and maybe above normal rainfall. Global coupled climate models show the current weak El Nino holding weak to moderate through the winter into the spring…which adds support to TX impacts by this fall.

I agree with Jeff's analysis. In fact several of us had an "interesting conversation" over the 4th of July Holiday concerning the similarities to 1980. Those of us that have been around Houston awhile know that these type setups a very hard to break. I would not be surprised to see water restrictions expanded in our area in the not too distant future. We shall see.

[vbhoutex]

I have to agree with Jeff's analysis(made me want to bury my head in the sand, but it is way too hot for that-I'd be burned to a crisp!) and what you are saying Steve. I just hope our drought breaker is not another Hurricane, for any part of the state! A minimal tropical storm or a depression I could handle as long as we don't have an A-word redux. AS I have alluded to several times before, I have seen way too many similarities to 1980 and I do think this summer will rival or possibly beat that one and that is a record all of us could do without!!!

So far today at the house 101ºf. I've lost count of 100ºf+ days here, but I think it is up to 15 plus or minus a few.

[Shoshana]

shhh.. don't mention "The Year That Shall Not Be Named"!!!


lol

[vbhoutex]

shhh.. don't mention "The Year That Shall Not Be Named"!!!


lol

hehehe. I've been trying to wish it away, but the local OCM's deep talking about it!

[CajunMama]

Nice little popup thunderstorm devoloped right over the house! Of course it popped up right as we were in the middle of bbqing but i'm not complaining...it's cooled things off quite a bit.