SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

I'm not happy. Electric bill went up $250.00 from the previous month. Lets hope a trough to the E can spawn some disturbances from the N and E around this "death ridge".

[Ed Mahmoud]

HGX AFD snip

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT SUMMER AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SEABREEZE
BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTION NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER
NORTHWEST AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHIFT ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAN CLOSER THE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS FORECAST.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY UNTIL 7 PM. WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FALL ENOUGH
THAT THE ADVISORY CAN BE DROPPED. WILL LEAVE DECISION ON WHETHER
TO REISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY TO THE EVENING SHIFT. WHETHER
THE ADVISORY IS CONTINUED OR NOT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL STILL BE
HOT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
NORTH.

&&

GFS shows some t-showers, and highs near to below normal, next weekend.

[Yankeegirl]

I dont wanna hear that about your electricity bill!! I am NOT looking forward to getting mine.... yuck!

[KatDaddy]

The shades of 1980 are rolling on. I will never forget Allen moving into the the GOM at 180mph. The Houston-Galveston areas really dodged a bullet with IKE. Imagine IKE at 140mph along with the surge. Houston would still not be the same place today.

[PTPatrick]

WOW...my wallet hurts just hearing your electrical bill. That is the ONLY blessing about not having TRUE AC...my bill so far this summer has not gone over 80 bucks. I have a relatively small house and a swamp cooler, which works great and uses about the same electricity as an attic fan. Central AC is nice but it comes at a cost. We use our share of power here in Colorado in the winter but even in the month of below zero weather last winter my power bill was only 150. I do NOT miss my old southern electric bills from Mobile.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New WRF is particularly happy looking Saturday afternoon.

[TexasSam]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
211 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
CALCASIEU LAKE OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER 4 NM EAST
OF CALCASIEU LAKE...OR ABOUT 6 NM NORTHEAST OF CAMERON...MOVING
WEST AT 10 KNOTS.

* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
207 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

LAZ051-152000-
CAMERON LA-
207 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CAMERON PARISH UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 206 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMERON...MOVING
WEST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ALERT INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RUTHERFORD BEACH...HOLLY BEACH...HACKBERRY...CREOLE AND CAMERON.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

[GalvestonDuck]

The shades of 1980 are rolling on. I will never forget Allen moving into the the GOM at 180mph. The Houston-Galveston areas really dodged a bullet with IKE. Imagine IKE at 140mph along with the surge. Houston would still not be the same place today.

Houston may have dodged it, but Galveston? Nope.

[Ed Mahmoud]

HGX radar shows almost nothing, but Granger in long range, Lake Charles and Fort Polk suggest showers into the easternmost NWS HGX CWA


I think the radar is broken.



ETA:
If it is broken, happened last 2 hours.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A-HA!! KHGX RADAR PICKING UP ON SOME SCT SHRAS DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THAT IS FINALLY MAKING IT ASHORE. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE PCPN IS JUST AFFECTING OUR ERN SHORES...THEY ARE THERE NONETHE-
LESS. AS SUCH FEELING A BIT MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE UPCOMING FCSTS
CONCERNING THE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/MOVE WWD THESE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE GULF SHOULD
BEGIN TO OPEN UP A BIT MORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE US A MORE AC-
TIVE SEABREEZE AS LIFT IS ENHANCED BY DISTURBANCES (MOVING IN FROM
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH) TODAY...THEN PERHAPS A LINGERING
SHEAR AXIS FOR FRI. HOWEVER THE BETTER POPS STILL LOOK TO START ON
OR ABOUT SAT NIGHT (ON INTO SUN) AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE N/NE AND HEADS TOWARD THE COAST. WHILE THE LATEST MOS NUM-
BERS NOT QUITE AS GUNG-HO WITH THE "CAA" IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
JUST NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK ATTM. 41

[Yankeegirl]

Look at the "stuff" on the radar this morning!! I hope it makes it to my side of town!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't know if they re-booted or what, but HGX WSR-88D looks to be working again.

[srainhoutx]

Look at the "stuff" on the radar this morning!! I hope it makes it to my side of town!!!

Here's hoping Yankeegirl. Our side of town desprately needs some rain and it looks like our best chance since the end of April.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1101 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

GMZ335-355-375-TXZ200-213-214-237-238-161900-
GALVESTON BAY-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-LIBERTY-HARRIS-
CHAMBERS-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1101 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH ISLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE SLOWLY INLAND AND AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF A WHARTON TO
COLDSPRING LINE BY 2 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH WITH SOME ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND AN INCH.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IT HAS BEEN A WHILE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RETURNS ON THE RADAR
ARE ACTUALLY PRECIPITATION ECHOES. AHHH...IT HAS BEEN SO LONG.
PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH TAKES THE PRECIP ALONG THE US 59
CORRIDOR AND NO FURTHER. THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED
OVERNIGHT. THE 4 KM WRF AND THE NAM 12 BOTH DEVELOP AN MCS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN A STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER WIND
FIELD. GFS/CAN/ECMWF DO NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE. CONSIDERING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...POSITION OF THE RIDGE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS...FEEL THE WRF/NAM MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. WILL ADD
CB`S OVERNIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS FINE TUNE
THE TAFS. OVERALL...AM EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. 43

[southerngale]

It's raining! Sweet, glorious rain! It seems a rather small shower has developed over my area and isn't moving much, so hopefully it will rain for a while. It's more likely that it will either drift off or rain itself out, but I can actually see the trees out there smiling!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Beautiful TCU, dark base, just starting to go for the full monty and form an anvil, as seen looking Southward from my window in the Galleria area.


It is a small anvil so far, but it has mammatus looking downward pouches already. Yowza!

[vbhoutex]

Beautiful TCU, dark base, just starting to go for the full monty and form an anvil, as seen looking Southward from my window in the Galleria area.


It is a small anvil so far, but it has mammatus looking downward pouches already. Yowza!

Come on North!!!

[srainhoutx]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
222 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

GMZ330-335-350-355-375-TXZ178-179-199-200-213-214-226-227-235>238-
162130-
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-SAN JACINTO-POLK-
MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-
MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
222 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF THE U.S. 59 CORRIDOR. THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH. ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
508 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

TXZ213-162300-
HARRIS-
508 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLOVERLEAF...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. SOME PONDING
OF WATER WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HOBBY AIRPORT...
ELLINGTON FIELD...SOUTH HOUSTON...PASADENA...JACINTO CITY...GALENA
PARK...DEER PARK...CLOVERLEAF AND CHANNELVIEW.

[southerngale]

It rained here for right at 45 minutes this afternoon. Mostly moderate, a little heavier and lighter at times, but a pretty good soaking, especially by standards of late.

But that was hours ago, earlier this afternoon. The streets and driveways are already dry and the grass is dry enough to walk on. Time for more!

[Yankeegirl]

No rain here... Crystal clear blue skies.....