Texas Summer-2015

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horselattitudesfarm
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#321 Postby horselattitudesfarm » Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:48 am

Its time to put the large mirrors in space and start reducing insolation to Texas. The Death Ridge likes to feed on insolation :)
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#322 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:03 am

No change overnight for next week, but I do see a pattern change AFTER next week.

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#323 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:11 am

Humm...HGX maybe alluding to what Wxman 57 is talking about...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061118
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCLL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. S-SW WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. COULD GET SOME WIND GUSTS LATER
TODAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SFC. CONDS WILL
LIKELY REPEAT TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AGAIN IMPACTING KCLL AND
POSSIBLY KUTS. MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED TODAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY AND OVER THE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BE OPPRESSIVE HEAT SETTLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
BLOSSOMING HEAT WAVE CENTERED NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE... WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ALREADY HAVING INCREASED 1-2 DECAMETERS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX INTO MISSISSIPPI.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS
ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES TODAY BUT WILL SERVE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY/S.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A SITE OR TWO SLIDE JUST ABOVE
THAT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ADVECTING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA /1.4 TO 1.6 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS/ HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR TODAY AS AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD HELP LIMIT A LARGER THREAT.
IF CONDITIONS TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER OR MOIST THAN ANTICIPATED
HOWEVER... ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD... CENTERING OVER
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PERSISTENTLY RANGE FROM 593 TO 595
DECAMETERS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 100S AT
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BY AT LEAST SATURDAY. TODAY/S NASA SPORT 0
TO 10 CENTIMETER RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURES SHOW LESS THAN 20%
AVAILABLE WATER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREAS. SOIL MOISTURE IS IMPORTANT TO HELPING
REGULATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BECAUSE AS THE WATER IN SOIL
EVAPORATES IT ACTUALLY PROVIDES SOME COOLING TO THE NEAR-SURFACE
AIR /ALSO KNOWN AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING/. WITH AS DRY AS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PRESENTLY IS... LIMITED SOIL MOISTURE WILL ONLY
HELP AGGRAVATE OUR ONGOING HOT TEMPERATURES.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER AROUND THE
STATE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS THE RIDGE WEST OF THE REGION IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. AS THIS HAPPENS... A NORTHWESTERLY TO
ALMOST NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HOW FAR INTO THE REGION IT
WILL GO /OR WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT AT ALL/ REMAINS
TO BE SEEN... BUT THIS PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT OF
RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS /EVEN IF IT IS ONLY 20 POPS/.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SUBTLE DIURNAL VARIATIONS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AT NIGHT AND A BRIEF S-SW COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION EACH MORNING. THE GRADIENT WHIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED A
BIT AND CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL RELAX
LATER THIS MORNING. WILL ISSUE A SHORT TERM SCEC FOR THE GULFWATERS
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. 43

&&
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#324 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:31 pm

All that water has been dried up for a couple weeks now. We just have to wear it fellas lol. 1 month to go.
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#325 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:17 pm

Haven't been able to count on tropical systems this go around for relief, especially with El Nino in full force, shearing any potential systems apart in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Bill was the last one in June, but that was after we had already had good soaking/flooding rains.

Patience. :sadly:
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Re:

#326 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:22 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:Haven't been able to count on tropical systems this go around for relief, especially with El Nino in full force, shearing any potential systems apart in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Bill was the last one in June, but that was after we had already had good soaking/flooding rains.

Patience. :sadly:


I think, and I know Wxman 57 will correct me on this, we will catch back up in October-December...I think...
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#327 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:40 pm

OUCH WXMAN57!!! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!
Unfortunately, Jeff thinks we are in for the HHHOOOTTTT too.

Heat Wave
Lindner, Jeffrey (Flood Control)

As if it has not been hot enough…it is going to get a little hotter.

Upper level ridge which has anchored over TX since the 4th of July brining almost no rainfall and daily temperatures in the mid 90’s to low 100’s will remain in place for the next 5-7 days. Axis of the ridge this morning over the SW US will build back over N and then E TX over the next 24-72 hours. This process is already noted with building heights on the evening soundings across TX. End result will be daily afternoon high temperatures topping out in the 99-103 degree range with heat index values of 105-110. Will be right at the cusp of heat advisory criteria each afternoon and only a slight increase in either surface moisture or afternoon temperatures would require an advisory. Heat stress is cumulative and given our current streak of many days in the upper 90’s and low 100’s the heat stress continues to build.

With upper ridging firmly in place there appears to be little hope for any rainfall. Top layer soils have dried to less than 20% moisture over the last several weeks and vegetation health continues to quickly worsen. Latest KBDI values are 600-700 for nearly all counties east of I-45 and 500-600 west of I-45. The threat for wildfires is certainly increasing across the region especially from College Station to Liberty and northeast and over Brazoria County. Afternoon RH will continue to bottom out in the 30-40% range with gusty winds behind the seabreeze boundary. Fine fuels are in poor conditions and ripe to burn so extreme caution should be used with any outdoor fire.

Burn Bans: Matagorda, Waller, Grimes, Walker, Madison, Houston Counties.

Additional counties will likely need to be added as rainfall over the next week looks slim.
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#328 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Aug 06, 2015 4:43 pm

Relief is on the way for NE Texas.

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#329 Postby gboudx » Thu Aug 06, 2015 4:58 pm

Yep, highs mid next week are borderline chilly.

Wednesday - Mostly sunny, with a high near 96.
Wednesday Night -Mostly clear, with a low around 76.
Thursday - Sunny, with a high near 94.
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#330 Postby TarrantWx » Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:12 pm

Larry Cosgrove posted a really interesting article on Facebook correlating summers with strong blocking with strong blocking in the following winter. Not sure if this should go here or in the Winter thread. Either way, the prospects of a winter with extreme blocking make me feel a lot better about what we're currently suffering through.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things- ... ing-winter
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Re:

#331 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Aug 07, 2015 9:57 am

TarrantWx wrote:Larry Cosgrove posted a really interesting article on Facebook correlating summers with strong blocking with strong blocking in the following winter. Not sure if this should go here or in the Winter thread. Either way, the prospects of a winter with extreme blocking make me feel a lot better about what we're currently suffering through.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things- ... ing-winter

Not sure which thread it should be in, but I would suggest posting this in the Winter thread also. Larry is more often right that wrong on his prognostications and I use him a lot. Like you I am like, well perhaps there is a "silver" lining to this scorching heat.
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#332 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 07, 2015 10:50 am

CFSv2 is hinting at anomalous wet conditions for September, possibly beginning at the end of this month. This is in line with analogs and seasonal shift of the background state. Looks like wet season part 2.
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Re:

#333 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Aug 07, 2015 10:59 am

Ntxw wrote:CFSv2 is hinting at anomalous wet conditions for September, possibly beginning at the end of this month. This is in line with analogs and seasonal shift of the background state. Looks like wet season part 2.


My own personal prediction is Sep/Oct to be very stormy and wet. Very. Could be a similar April/May situation I think. Thats also the peak for Nino according to many models
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Re: Re:

#334 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 07, 2015 11:05 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Ntxw wrote:CFSv2 is hinting at anomalous wet conditions for September, possibly beginning at the end of this month. This is in line with analogs and seasonal shift of the background state. Looks like wet season part 2.


My own personal prediction is Sep/Oct to be very stormy and wet. Very. Could be a similar April/May situation I think. Thats also the peak for Nino according to many models


It would be a good assessment. El Nino strengthens most Spring and Fall, November is often the month events tends to peak. I'd hedge bets too that month this year will look like Nino climo as it can get.

If it was a weaker event I'd say other factors count too, but when you have strong Nino or Nina the forecast skill becomes better and easier because more times than not it is the dominating signal being the alpha dog.
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Re: Re:

#335 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Aug 07, 2015 1:40 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Ntxw wrote:CFSv2 is hinting at anomalous wet conditions for September, possibly beginning at the end of this month. This is in line with analogs and seasonal shift of the background state. Looks like wet season part 2.


My own personal prediction is Sep/Oct to be very stormy and wet. Very. Could be a similar April/May situation I think. Thats also the peak for Nino according to many models


It would be a good assessment. El Nino strengthens most Spring and Fall, November is often the month events tends to peak. I'd hedge bets too that month this year will look like Nino climo as it can get.

If it was a weaker event I'd say other factors count too, but when you have strong Nino or Nina the forecast skill becomes better and easier because more times than not it is the dominating signal being the alpha dog.


Bring it!! :D
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#336 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:26 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071953
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
253 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DUE TO THE PERSISTING MID/UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS OUR RECENT TRENDS
OF HIGH TEMPS AROUND 100 CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFT.
HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM 100-107 DEGREES AT 2 PM. WITH EVEN WARMER
AFTERNOONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...HEAT ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR A
PORTION OF SE TX ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT DURING THE SAT-TUE PD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF THE RIDGE
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE NW AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SUBTLE PATTERN CHG SHOULD
BRING A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SE TX ON WEDNESDAY. EXACTLY
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS AND HOW LONG IT KEEPS ITS IDENTITY IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS DUE TO THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THE RAIN CHC APPEARS BRIEF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE ON THU/FRI.

MAX TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE SUN-TUE TIME FRAME. ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 103 OR 104
DEGREES DURING THIS PD. CENTRAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
HIGH TEMPS 102 TO 103. HEAT INDICES DURING THIS PD SHOULD PEAK
AROUND 110 ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS DUE TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DW PTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LW/EL

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY RELAXING WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET. EXPECT WINDS
TO COME BACK UP TO NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR 3-6 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
6 AM. THIS MAY BRIEFLY WARRANT A SCEC FOR WINDS BUT IT WILL BE
BORDERLINE. THIS PATTERN REPEATS AGAIN TOMORROW AS WELL AS THE
THREAT OF A BRIEF SCEC SATURDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
TODAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN AMPLITUDE WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO A WEAK FRONT SAGGING DOWN INTO LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS LATE
TUE-THU. WINDS RELAX FURTHER DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME SO SEAS
SHOULD LOWER TO 1-2 FEET.
KP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HOT AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL LOWER INTO THE
30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS IN
THE UPPER 20S BUT AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND THE GREATER MIXING INTO
THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SEE MANY SITES REPORT AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES
IN THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE SAT-MON.
KP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 102 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 101 78 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 95 84 95 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
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#337 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:27 pm

I am going to channel my inner Porta.....

Second. Worst. Summer. Ever.
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#338 Postby aggiecutter » Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:49 pm

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Re:

#339 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:15 pm

Tireman4 wrote:I am going to channel my inner Porta.....

Second. Worst. Summer. Ever.


Really? We had our first 100 a little over a week ago and abundant rain in June and this summer is second only to 2011 in severity? I'm inclined to disagree...
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Re: Re:

#340 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 07, 2015 7:40 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:I am going to channel my inner Porta.....

Second. Worst. Summer. Ever.


Really? We had our first 100 a little over a week ago and abundant rain in June and this summer is second only to 2011 in severity? I'm inclined to disagree...


It has been the typical Texas summer so far. Not even the likes of 2009, 2010, 2012 etc no less 2011. I think what makes it FEEL so horrible is the boring prolonged stretch of 3-4 weeks. Heat is normal, but we haven't had any thunderstorm days to break it up. This weekend will be the highlight of summer 2015. After that seasonal changes are underway as we begin to step down and hopefully into a prolonged wet period next few months.
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