Texas Summer 2016

[South Texas Storms]

I will never understand why convection that easily happens in Louisiana just dies the instant is crosses the state line into Texas. Things like this make me feel that there is a supernatural component to blame in regards to summer dry spells in Texas.

I'm nothing more than an observer, but I would assume that in LA, your southerly and southwesterly flows are off the gulf, whereas in Texas, those same flows are off the high desert of Mexico. At least that's the way I've heard the "capping inversion" explained in the past...nothing more than a very dry mid-level atmosphere that simply requires too much lift and moisture.

Yep, you are correct.

Rain chances will be increasing during the first half of this week as an upper-level disturbance retrogrades westward into Texas underneath the heat ridge to the north of us. Some lucky areas could get some heavy rainfall from this system. Hopefully it's more widespread!

[A.V.]

I will never understand why convection that easily happens in Louisiana just dies the instant is crosses the state line into Texas. Things like this make me feel that there is a supernatural component to blame in regards to summer dry spells in Texas.

I'm nothing more than an observer, but I would assume that in LA, your southerly and southwesterly flows are off the gulf, whereas in Texas, those same flows are off the high desert of Mexico. At least that's the way I've heard the "capping inversion" explained in the past...nothing more than a very dry mid-level atmosphere that simply requires too much lift and moisture.

True, but even the parts of Texas that have Gulf water to the south/southwest (Houston, Beaumont, etc) still have been having trouble with convection. At least, that is how it seems these recent years; I know for a fact that summers of last decade were much wetter.

[TheProfessor]

I will never understand why convection that easily happens in Louisiana just dies the instant is crosses the state line into Texas. Things like this make me feel that there is a supernatural component to blame in regards to summer dry spells in Texas.

I'm nothing more than an observer, but I would assume that in LA, your southerly and southwesterly flows are off the gulf, whereas in Texas, those same flows are off the high desert of Mexico. At least that's the way I've heard the "capping inversion" explained in the past...nothing more than a very dry mid-level atmosphere that simply requires too much lift and moisture.

True, but even the parts of Texas that have Gulf water to the south/southwest (Houston, Beaumont, etc) still have been having trouble with convection. At least, that is how it seems these recent years; I know for a fact that summers of last decade were much wetter.

It all depends on the angle of wind direction, parts of Louisiana can have a direction that's closer to 180 degrees (west) and still have moisture from the Gulf, where as someplace like Houston would need to have a higher degree closer to 225-270 to get moisture that's not mixing in with drier air. I haven't been observing South Texas much this Summer, but there might be somedays where there isn't enough lift further inland to support storms. The key for rain is moisture and lift, and the main ingredients to getting a Thunderstorm is lift, moisture, and instability. There our other factors of course but when one of those are missing or reduced it can really hurt the chance of seeing rain or a thunderstorm.

[aggiecutter]

Heavy Thunderstorm in Texarkana with about a .50" of rain in the past 30 minutes and still raining

[Brent]

DFW hits 100 again... barely

[aggiecutter]

The thunderstorm did its trick to temperatures. It went from a high of 100 to 79 in just over an hour:

[A.V.]

It all depends on the angle of wind direction, parts of Louisiana can have a direction that's closer to 180 degrees (west) and still have moisture from the Gulf, where as someplace like Houston would need to have a higher degree closer to 225-270 to get moisture that's not mixing in with drier air. I haven't been observing South Texas much this Summer, but there might be somedays where there isn't enough lift further inland to support storms. The key for rain is moisture and lift, and the main ingredients to getting a Thunderstorm is lift, moisture, and instability. There our other factors of course but when one of those are missing or reduced it can really hurt the chance of seeing rain or a thunderstorm.

The angle that the Texas coast makes is such that any desert air from the Mexican mountains gets intercepted by the moist gulf before reaching Houston (the southern/coastal/eastern portions, at least). I guess it may just be a luck of the draw thing; I just have seen too many days with storms right at the state line not making it through.

[Brent]

the heat index at Love Field is still 100 at 10pm...

[weatherdude1108]

Let's hope we get a break from this God-awful pattern before the chances evaporate.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
[b]Big changes are on the way for the first part of the week. As the
subtropical ridge pushes farther to the west and into the four
corners region, rain chances will be increasing across the area.
Medium-range models are suggesting the development of an upper
level short-wave dropping from the Northern Plains into the Ohio
Valley late Monday into Tuesday. Convection along the short-wave
axis is expected to push to the southwest along the periphery of
the subtropical ridge. At the surface, remnant of a cold front
pushing across the Southern Plains in combination with a moist
southern flow will aid showers and storms to form and affect most
of South Central Texas, especially Tuesday. Also, an inverted
upper level trough is forecast to move across the northern part of
the Gulf of Mexico into the Texas coast. This will bring pwats of
2 to 2.19 inches (per area forecast sounding of GFS model). With
these values in place, we are expecting rainfall accumulations of
one tenth to one quarter inch with isolated spots of 2 to 3
inches. Weather conditions will improve Tuesday evening into
Wednesday with dry conditions expected for the latter part of the
week.

We will have a break from the upper 90s and 100 degrees days
seeing the past several days early next week due to increase in
cloud coverage and rain chances. However, this cool episode is
short-lived as dry and hot weather conditions return later in the
week into next weekend.
[/b]

[Brent]

It appears it may

[Ntxw]

Fyi DFW needs 1.2" of rain to make top 10 wettest July's

[aggiecutter]

Looks like a lot rain on the way for East and Central Texas for the coming week

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 241955
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
255 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
The heat will hang around for one more afternoon before a major
change in the weather comes late Monday. Heat index values this
afternoon are already up to 104 - 106 in spots across the I-35
corridor and the Coastal Plains. Due to increasing moisture an
isolated shower or storm is possible late this evening along the
sea breeze, but high resolution models keep that activity to a
minimum.

On Monday the ridge of high pressure weakens and pushes eastward.
This will open the door for two westward moving upper level
disturbances. Both right now can be seen on water vapor, one over
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the other over south Florida.
Models show the first disturbance kicking off a complex of storms
over Northeast Texas late tomorrow. This will move southwestward.
The combination of increased moisture, the outflow boundary from
the complex of storms, and daytime heating will lead to isolated
showers and thunderstorms late tomorrow into the evening hours.
The best chances for storms will be along and west of the US
Highway 281 Corridor. Precipitable Water values in forecast
soundings from the GFS approach 2 inches by Monday morning so
there will be the possibility of locally heavy rainfall from the
activity tomorrow afternoon. With those same soundings showing
limited CAPE and fairly weak shear the main threat from these
storms will be gusty winds in addition to the heavy rainfall.
Afternoon highs will "cool" a bit for Monday due to the increased
cloud cover. Heat Index values will still reach up to around the
105 mark.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
As the lower Mississippi Valley trough moves west across the state
Monday night rain chances will continue. The south Florida trough
will approach the state late in the day on Tuesday. The
combination of the lift caused by both of these disturbances,
daytime heating, residual boundaries, and daytime heating will
lead to increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms across
South Central Texas on Tuesday. Again with PW values around 2
inches brief locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Gusty
thunderstorm winds and lightning will remain the hazards from the
stronger thunderstorms. Highs Tuesday will be at or below normal
across the area, in the lower 90s, thanks to the cloud cover and
precipitation. The NAM and ECMWF show a focus for showers and
storms across our western counties Tuesday night into Wednesday as
the low moves across the Rio Grande Plains. Wednesday will bring
another decent shot of rain as the low slowly moves west and
moisture remains across South Central Texas.

From here the long term models diverge. The GFS has weak ridging
across the area Thursday and Friday, keeping the trough across the
Midwest farther north. The ECMWF has the south Florida trough
hanging around northern Mexico which maintains the weakness in the
ridge. This allows not only for sea breeze each day, but isolated
showers and storms across most areas Thursday, and east of I-35
Friday and Saturday. As the ECMWF has been consistent with the
weakness in the ridge, and moisture should remain pooled over
South Central Texas will side with it and continue slight chances
for precipitation through Saturday before finally drying us out.

Temperatures have not been at or below normal since early June,
and this chance of precipitation is our most solid chance since
early June as well.

[Ntxw]

Look at what is building in the North Pacific. Not only a new warm pool, but anomalous 500mb ridge to boot. Keep this type of pattern there for a few more months and you can look at a 2013-2014 redux



Ridge Bridge, open the fridge.

[1900hurricane]

Oddly enough, the number of 100*F days at Easterwood so far this year match the July rainfall there so far: 0. I'm ready for some rain; the dry summers are so played out. I don't care about the temperatures, just give me some precipitation!

[Ralph's Weather]

I got lucky with a storm yesterday and got over half an inch. Looks like more to come this week.

[weatherdude1108]

Hopeful we get our turn of the wet.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 250905
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
405 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
A weak mid level disturbance over Eastern Texas is forecast to
drift to the southwest into South Central Texas today and linger
through Tuesday. Deeper moisture with PWS 2+ inches currently to
our east spreads across our area later today into Tuesday. Solar
heating and the mid level disturbance provide upward forcing for
showers and thunderstorms to develop midday into afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached. Then, outflow boundaries
maintain them into this evening and possibly overnight. Convective
temperatures will be reached earlier in the day on Tuesday with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. PWS
of 2 to 2.4 inches, storm motion vectors of 10 KTS or less, and
some training of cells may allow for locally heavy rains up to 3
inches this afternoon through Tuesday and may cause mainly urban
and small stream type flooding. Weak CAPE is forecast making
gusty winds possible with the stronger storms. However, wind shear
is almost non existent. Prior to convective development today,
temperatures will be similar to yesterday and combined with the
humid airmass, heat indices in the 105 to 108 range are expected
along and east of I-35 as well as across the Rio Grande. Clouds
and earlier development of rain on Tuesday makes for a "cooler"
day with lower heat indices.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
The mid level disturbance lingers into Wednesday while an upper
level trough currently off the west coast of Florida moves to the
west across the Gulf of Mexico. Models are now showing less of a
consensus with this trough. Some keep it east of our area while
others merge it with the mid level disturbance on Wednesday.
Regardless, a moist airmass will be lifted to generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Similar to the short-term, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are possible with the stronger storms.
By Thursday, the disturbance and trough transition into a shear
axis that lingers into this coming weekend. Moisture level
decrease a little with showers and thunderstorms becoming driven
by solar heating. Expect development mainly in the afternoon and
dissipation in the evening. Below normal temperatures mid week
will rise again to above normal late in the week and weekend.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251452
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
952 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Only minor adjustments this morning, mainly to keep temperatures
and skies on track. A little unsure about PoPs for the next few
hours. Convection to this point is almost entirely over the water,
and while heating should erode any convective inhibition as we
head towards afternoon, that cloud deck covering much of the area
has me wondering if rain chances are a touch high before 18Z. If I
were to totally believe the consensus of short term models, I
should be very worried. But, since the expectation is still for
things to become more active around 18Z and uncertainty could well
allow for rain to develop a bit early, will leave things mainly
untouched beyond a slight adjustment to blend better with the
neighbors and removing the small region of "likely" precip. In the
end, the focus is still on the afternoon for the main show.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

AVIATION...
Moderate confidence in the forecast. The models were trending
toward a peak period of best thunderstorm chances to be generally
from 19Z to 23Z. The HRRR and RAP13 both show the showers along
the coast spreading inland between 15Z and 17Z. Think that the
coverage will diminish by 02Z this evening. Overnight tonight,
some of the models were indicating storms will regenerate south
and east of KIAH and KHOU. There is enough uncertainty to keep the
mention out of both sites for now.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
At 3 am, weak low pressure was noted near El Paso with high
pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At 850 mb, a weak area
of low pressure was noted over Louisiana with a plume of deeper
moisture extending E-NE into the Ohio River valley. A weak high
pressure system was located over SE OK. A very weak 850 trough
axis extended east-west from about Galveston Bay into the west
central Gulf. At 500 mb, a weak upper low was located over LA with
a plume of deeper moisture over western LA with a stronger upper
low over the eastern Gulf. An upper level high was located over
the desert southwest and 500 heights have only fallen about 10
meters at FWD and SHV since yesterday. At 300 mb, the center of an
expansive upper ridge was located over west central Texas with
another lobe of high pressure over central AZ. The flow between
the weak low over LA and the ridge to the west will allow a strong
vort lobe to rotate into the area from the northeast later today.
PW values are progged to increase to between 2.20 and 2.40 inches
with convective temps between 88-92. It seems reasonable to expect
shra/tsra today with the best chance this aftn as the disturbance
approaches SE TX. PW values remain high tonight with the NAM12
particularly aggressive with PW values approaching 2.60 inches.
Will maintain chance PoPS all night but having trouble finding a
catalyst for precip. Storm motion will be between 5 and 10 knots
so some of the storms will have the potential to produce brief but
locally heavy rain this afternoon. Will maintain likely PoPs
today. High temps are tricky today. The day will start out warm
and conditions should heat up fast but depending on when clouds
begin to develop and the onset of precip will determine just how
warm it`ll get. Went just a shade above numerical guidance due to
the warm AM temps.

The upper low over the eastern Gulf will shift west and phase
with the upper low over LA by Tuesday 12z and become more of an
inverted trough. PW values remain AOA 2.25 inches. Convective
temps are between 87-91 degrees. A weak disturbance will again
rotate into the region during the afternoon so would expect an
increase in shra/tsra on Tuesday aftn as the upper level
disturbance and the inverted trough near the area. Have
maintained likely PoPs for Tuesday

On Wednesday, SE TX will lie on the east side of the inverted
trough axis and this is a favorable position for additional
shra/tsra. Another strong upper level disturbance will pivot into
the region from the northeast. PW values lower to between 1.95 and
2.15 inches but convective temps remain between 88-91 degrees.
Fcst soundings do show some capping try to redevelop around 500 mb
but at this time, the cap still looks weak and breakable. Will
maintain high end chance PoPs west and bumped PoPs to likely over
the east.

Thursday through the weekend looks like a return to more typical
summer conditions with daytime high temps warming into the
mid/upper 90s. PW values remain around 2.00 inches with some
drying noted over the weekend. Upper level ridging will be both
east and west of the area with a weakness centered over the
central/southern plains. This pattern should allow for diurnally
driven shra/tsra each day. 43

MARINE...
Weak surface ridging will keep a general light wind pattern in place
today. However, computer models were showing moderate southerly
winds will develop Tuesday and Wednesday. A deep layer of upper
level moisture is expected to bring better chances for showers and
thunderstorms today through Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorm chances
then lower over the second half of the week. Given the model
forecast sounding for GLS, still think isolated short-lived
waterspouts will be possible this morning and again on Tuesday
morning.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 76 92 75 93 / 60 30 60 30 50
Houston (IAH) 93 77 91 77 92 / 70 40 60 30 60
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 88 81 89 / 60 50 70 30 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99

[Tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 251745
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016


.AVIATION...
SHRA developing rapidly in the moist axis (2.2-2.4" PW) from SHV-
LFK- GLS and these should deepen becoming scattered to numerous
thunderstorms in the coming hour or so. Winds should steer this
band west through the Metro hubs between 1730-2300z with
intermittent direct impacts (VISBY/VRB gusty winds) at the hubs
before storms depart to the west. Seabreeze storms should move
inland to the northwest impacting the LBX/SGR sites through 22z
then expect some clearing as line continues northwest but will be
fighting increasing capping/subsidence late this afternoon. The
area will remain very moist but slightly capped overnight so can`t
rule out isolated showers but thinking that most will hold off
until after 11z with rapid increase in coverage and intensity
after 14z TUE. 45

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Look at what is building in the North Pacific. Not only a new warm pool, but anomalous 500mb ridge to boot. Keep this type of pattern there for a few more months and you can look at a 2013-2014 redux



Ridge Bridge, open the fridge.

Liking what i see. I notice that when looking at the 500 MB map. A strong 5H in the winter would pull siberian and arctic air right into the lower 48. Hopefully that pool of water stays warm. I also notice that it seems to create a strong trough in the arctic. Likely good for building ice or limiting the reduction of ice in the arctic.